Posted on 07/02/2024 6:36:30 PM PDT by Libloather
Polling has started to come out following last week’s presidential debate between former President Trump and President Biden, showing some indications of Trump gaining in the aftermath.
Anticipation for the debate built up in advance for both candidates, but especially for Biden, who was hoping to use the night to overcome worries that he’s not up to the job of president for four more years. Instead, he at times stumbled over his words, struggled to make clear statements on policy positions and did not present significant energy that many Democrats wanted to see.
Although Trump made numerous false statements throughout the debate — significantly more than Biden — he came off as more competent and cognizant during the night, despite the candidates’ ages being similar.
Accordingly, polling respondents have mostly said Trump was the winner of the debate, and the former president has seen a subsequent rise in the polls. But it’s still less than a week after the debate, and the change has been more modest than some might expect.
“I don’t know how anyone looks at the debate performance in some of the after-reaction about who won the debate and says, ‘Hey, this is going to be helpful to the president’s numbers.’ I think the question is, you know, how hurtful will it be?” said Scott Tranter, the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
Biden was already trailing Trump a bit heading into the debate. Although the national polling had been a bit mixed with each candidate slightly ahead at times, the former president has mostly led the incumbent by at least a few points in the roughly half-dozen key battleground states that will likely decide the election.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Regarding the following “fact check”:
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that he is the president who got the Veterans Choice program through Congress
former President Barack Obama signed the Choice program into law in 2014. The law, which allowed eligible veterans to be covered by the government for care provided by doctors outside the VA system, was a bipartisan initiative spearheaded by two senators Trump has repeatedly criticized, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and the late John McCain of Arizona...
What Trump signed was a 2018 law, the VA MISSION Act, that modified and expanded the eligibility criteria from the Choice program.
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This “fact check” is mis-leading and doesn’t tell the full story. It limits Trump’s follow-up legislation to the 2018 VA Mission Act while ignoring an April 19, 2017 bill that extended and altered parts of the original 2014 law. Additionally, A week later, Trump signed an Executive Order designed to help whistleblowers and improve accountability.
From a Wikipedia article on the subject, we find:
On April 19, 2017, President Donald Trump signed a bill into law extending the act and expanding the eligibility for the program, where veterans are given the option for a private doctor if their VA wait is only 20 days (28 for specialty care) or their drive is only 30 minutes.
Failures with the VA Choice program emerged in a 2017 whistleblower case concerning the Manchester VA Medical Center, in which one of the administrators of the VA Choice program, Health Net Federal Services, failed to schedule appointments for New Hampshire veterans, leaving some veterans with life-threatening conditions waiting for over six months just to see a doctor. On April 27, 2017, President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 13793 (Improving Accountability and Whistleblower Protection at the Department of Veterans Affairs) to help whistleblowers and increase accountability at the Department of Veterans Affairs. In 2018, President Donald Trump signed the VA Maintaining Internal Systems and Strengthening Integrated Outside Networks Act of 2018 (VA MISSION Act of 2018) into law which made several improvements to the existing VA Choice program and amended the 2014 legislation.
How is me saying that Biden’s horrible performance is going to be reflected in the polls make me a NeverTrumper? You got a screw loose buddy.
And you’ve go to love this bit of propaganda:
The [2014 Veteran’s Choice Act], which allowed eligible veterans to be covered by the government for care provided by doctors outside the VA system, was a bipartisan initiative spearheaded by two senators Trump has repeatedly criticized, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and the late John McCain of Arizona.
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As if Trump criticizing McCain and Sanders is somehow relevant. Did Trump criticize them for their role in getting this law passed? Of course not. The implication is that Trump’s criticism of them on other matters is wrong because of their role in getting this legislation passed. Sheesh!! What a bunch of gas-lighting morons!
Trump should absolutely be comfortable in agreeing to another debate. He really has nothing to lose in doing so --and much to lose in declining.
Notice how quiet Trump has been lately. It's almost as if there are competent people running his campaign who told him to STFU while Biden implodes! And he took their advice!
This isn't the "Bull in the China shop" Trump of 2016 or the "on his heels over Covid" Trump of 2020.
He is running a remarkably, surprisingly disciplined and focused campaign this time around --and it's driving the left even more crazy!
"Where are the mean tweets! We need mean Tweets!"
Trump isn't giving them anything!
NH doesn't get polled a lot; there are only two polls out right now:
Pennsylvania
That's a 2-point swing in Pennsylvania.
In pre-debate Michigan
That's a 4-point swing in Michigan, before the debate.
I'm sure many more polls will be coming out this week, perhaps delayed by the Independence Day holiday.
-PJ
That is a big swing toward Trump in the polls. Owen is going to have the sads.
-PJ
Dood, you are comparing different polling methodologies and claiming significance.
You must have a specific polling organization with its specific definition of likely voter measures pre and post debate. Each of those individual pollsters have to have their comparison. It makes no sense to compare one to a different one.
It doesn’t matter which one is right. What matters is a change in the result, and it must be outside MOE to be meaningful.
Only you are correct?
-PJ
It has never been clear that averaging multiple samples of different methodology provides a superior measurement. And since one can never know what methodology is accurate, the very best, and indeed only, measurement of value we have is:
The delta. The change.
If a given methodology yields change in attitude, then you can have confidence that change has happened, outside the MOE. If it says Trump +8 you do not know if the attitudes are indeed Trump +8. But if you see a previous measure of Trump +4, you can be confident some good changes are happening to attitudes.
Note the final polling avg in 2020 was Biden +7.5%. Actual vote counts finished at +4.5%. Which is the point — you don’t know if it is accurate, be it a single poll or be it average of polls. But the change or lack of change will be pure data. Attitudes would be changing or not changing.
My own model converts poll results and margins of error into probabilities of winning or losing, and then I work with the probabilities and not the poll averages.
Again, what's important is the delta between polls and the signals they are sending.
Also, I don't use the national polls, just the state polls. The only use I have for the national polls is to correlate the random variables to reduce outlier cases from the Monte Carlo analysis.
-PJ
So which were lies? Particularly about 2020 fraud?
Opus?
If you read my post, I said "I'll list the "lies" that were alleged in the article's linked article, so others don't have to go there and read it."
You're the one who posted "Name a single one" as if you didn't read the article, or you would have seen for yourself what they were.
So don't deflect your laziness onto me.
Out of ignorance you demanded "Name a single one" and I did the research that you refused to do. So why don't YOU look at the list that YOU asked for and YOU tell us "which were lies?"
Don't get me wrong, I'm with you on this. I believe the "Trump lies is worse than Biden's incapacity" excuse is crap. But I won't tolerate ignorant sniping from fellow FReepers who don't do the research for themselves.
Now that you've seen the list, why don't you debunk them for the rest of us? I took it upon myself to compile the list at your request. It's your turn now to follow up.
-PJ
It appears to me that these are mostly just statistical differences. It doesn't matter to me if someone says it's the most when it's the second most, or if there were no terrorist attacks and someone calls a lone wolf who runs a blockade a terrorist attack.
Now I know what they're calling lies.
-PJ
I agree it’s good to keep abreast of it. But when they themselves fear to go beyond proof by assertion, it says more about them than they think they are concealing about themselves.
I know NJ wasn't in the list of polls discussed up-thread, but it signals an interesting turn of support. We will need a third poll to see if this is a trend or a short-term reaction to recent events.
-PJ
GOP poll. Haven’t looked at methodology.
If polling nationwide stayed as is, Biden likely loses. The GOP is going to embrace VBM and if there are dropboxes, use them. Also, I would guess the Trump RNC is going to nursing homes as was done by the Dems.
Biden had a 7.5% polling lead in 2020. That has disappeared. The Dems know it. The reason why it disappeared is not that they have an elderly candidate. That can be fixed. The reason is they prosecuted Trump. The people are rejecting that and the Dems cannot undo it.
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