“How NOT to be a victim of gold scams” Part Two.

FreeRepublic Original Research ^ | Feb 11, 2024 | Widget Jr

[Widget Jr]

“How NOT to be a victim of gold scams”
Part Two

The first part was to give some background in the realities of the industry, to help dispel what get rich forecasters say. The deeper I went... well... rabbit holes go deep. Armstrong, like many frauds of economics loves talking about gold. How to invest and make money in it. From the first post, there is no way a outsider investing in the stock market, will make more than those working in the industry. This part is to address specific gold predictions by Martin Armstrong... and how disconnected from reality they are.

I. The Price of Gold in Reality.

First, some background, the history of the price of gold for the 20 to 30 year. What the price of gold actually did, and what it meant for the predictions Armstrong, and his shills made. Gold prices over the years, in USD per ounce:
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
https://goldprice.org/
https://www.apmex.com/gold-price.

From 2004 to June 2011: gold rose from $400 to $1,840 USD.
From June 2011 to August 2012, gold dropped then rose back to $ 1,800 USD.
From August 2012 to November 2015: gold dropped to $1,060 USD.
From November 2015 July 2020: gold rose to $2,020 USD.
Since then the price of gold dropped in August 2020 to 1,600, then climbed back up to its current value of $2,020 to $2,040 USD.

The too long, didn’t read version: From 2004, the price of gold has been on a upward trend from $400 USD/ounce to over $2,000 USD/ounce, with a dip in price from 2012 to 2015 from which the price has recovered.

II.  Armstrong’s $5,000 Gold Fantasy.

Now let’s look at Armstrong’s predictions (Are spoilers necessary? Probably not.)

November 7, 2009, Martin Armstrong’s Newsletter predicting $5,000 per ounce gold.

Eighteen pages explaining what absolutely must happen, that never happened.

August 24, 2013, Gold $5,000+ – Why

"We have only two possibilities. (1) We get the phase transition in the Dow now going into 2015.75 whereby the Dow nearly doubles in value creating the bubble top, or (2) the Phase Transition is postponed into 2025 for the next 8.6 year wave. This depends upon the debt crisis. If we see the sovereign debt unravel now, then capital will flee into tangibles. There will not be the flight to quality so sovereign debt will not be the alternative but tangible assets. Thus, gold will rally at that time in place of government bonds. Because there is little gold at the current price relative to the cash, its price must rise to the price level in the $5,000 area."

I am not going to unpack all the economic falsehoods. Further down, I will explain how Armstrong deceives people, not the specific deceptions. Although I think I am qualified to say none of these financial crises or their responses happened in the third or fourth quarter of 2015 anywhere close to what Martin claimed.

September 2, 2014, Will Gold Still Go to $5000?

“Yes – to answer a lot of questions. We still see the future rally in gold reaching the $5,000 level.”

Nope. Not even close.

April 15, 2015, Martin Armstrong – Gold Bullion To “Max Out At $5,000 Per Ounce”

"– Fall 2015 turning point – civil unrest and riots globally says forecaster Armstrong
– Fed have to raise rates – due to pressure from congress and media
– By 2020 the cost of servicing U.S. debt will outpace defence spending
– European banks will collapse and “blood in the streets”
– Higher rates will also devastate emerging markets who have issued dollar-based debt
– Gold to “max out at $5000 per ounce”
– Advocates diversification and holding bullion coins familiar to public such as $20 gold coins"

I will unpack this.

There is always civil unrest somewhere, and the catastrophic global unrest and riots Armstrong was predicting for 2015 did not happen. The increasing cost of servicing the debt to defense or any US Federal spending was already known, and had nothing to do with gold prices. The European Debt Crisis started in 2009 to the mid 2010s, was a ongoing problem. European banking did not collapse.

This was not a open ended forecast. If it was, it would be worthless to anyone's claims as a super forecaster. Armstrong's gold forecasts had definite timelines. From the Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam blog, Gold USD 5,000+ into 2016 we have Martin’s own words:

“THE SPIKE HIGH: ... This would signal an amazing rally may then develop with a high at least at the 5,000 level and perhaps even 12,000 by 1215.75 if we held the 1,500 level in June..”

“13: A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016. P14: However, if gold exceeds this level and it too forms the subsequent support, now we are looking at the $3,500 to $5,000 target zone. This is where we see the potential for Gold is a true economic meltdown of Confidence.”

Just to remind where we are, gold never reached $2,500 all the time Martin was saying $5,000 gold was inevitable, and would happen before 2016. That same page on the Socrates Scam blog shows lots of other failed predictions that were sure to happen.

Armstrong was busy predicting catastrophic global economic and political collapse, failure, turmoil (pick one or all) by the end of 2015 and in 2016. Events which did not happen.

Armstrong is using two tricks in these Gold forecasts. First, he keeps repeating the same lie, from 2009 to 2015, until it is worn out. The second is, he wraps what he says in all the biases and prejudices his target audience wants to hear. Armstrong panders to the libertarian, anti-EU, anti-Western dominance of everything conservative groups.

This is in no way a defense of the United States and European systems of power and control. What Armstrong is doing is taking advantage of people’s fears and prejudices to get them to buy his products, buy into his get rich schemes, while taking no responsibility when people lose money following his advice.

III.  How Armstrong Deceives and Misleads for Fun and Profit.

His fun, his profit, and this is not a comprehensive list. Armstrong and his kind have a limited number of related tricks.

· Make wild predictions about current events that are already happening.
· Claim they predicted the exact events that are happening when they didn’t.
· Take credit for events they had not involvement.
· Make word salad claims that sound impressive to those who don’t know any better.

The trick that makes this a full time effort is to never shut up. It make it easier to:
· Ignore any previous predictions and claims that contradict the current narrative.
· Take advantage of search engines that are biased to what is trending, versus what is more reliably accurate information.
· Confuse anyone who wants to challenge all the nonsense because there is so much of it for the conmen to fall back on.

IV.  Nick Nicolaas.

Now onto one of his promoters, Nick Nicolaas. He is the owner of Montan Mining, now Fidelity Minerals. He used to promote Armstrong. What he is really doing is promoting himself to those who don’t know better.

He went to Armstrong 2016 World Economic Conference, and used a old trick with a new twist. Selling the get rich scheme to get rich, by selling his notes for $1,000 to “cover the cost” of going to one of Armstrong’s conferences. Armstrong already sells his conference material. Why by the notes, when you can buy the real thing?

Then in January 18, 2021 on Facebook, he posted, Klondike Silver Update - Gold, the Dow, S&P 500 & the Nasdaq - Points to Ponder, he actually out did Armstrong:

"NY Gold Nearest Futures

...

The Silver Price will eventually become explosive. It will go back in the area of its historical Silver/Gold Ratio of Seventeen (17) Ounces of Silver to One (1) Ounce of Gold.

We still believe that there will be a Turning-point and Directional-Change in Gold. Gold will go below $981.50 after which will go above $981.50.

When that occurs, we will see Gold move to at least $2,500 and perhaps $5,000 per ounce. Eventually Gold will go as high as $20.000 per ounce."

He ends with this gem:

"At Mining Interactive resolved to move you the Investor into Super-fortune and Ultra-wealth status.

In the near future, of the first quarter 2021, the price of Gold was actually dropping. It took to the end of March, 2022 for gold to hit $2,000. At that time, the price of Silver would have to quadruple to meet a 17:1 ratio to gold. There was nothing except wild speculation to think the price would quadruple for some arcane reason.

The funny part is this, the difference in stock price between Nicolass’s company and Sibuyan Stillwater from Part One of How NOT to be a victim of gold scams. Nicolass owned Montan Mining, which in 2019 rebranded into Fidelity Minerals, FMN on the Toronto Venture exchange. At the time of this writing, FMN is trading at $0.05 USD / Share. Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW), on the NYSE, is trading at $4.28 USD/ Share, 85.6 times higher. Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW:SJ) stock price on the South African Johannesburg exchange is 1,973 ZAr (South African Rand), or $103.94 USD, a whopping 2,078.8 times higher!

If Nicolass followed his own advice based on Armstrong’s advice, he did not move into Super-Fortune or Ultra-Wealth status.

[Widget Jr]

"Gold is not going to make you rich. But it generally keeps up with inflation over time."

Good enough to keep up with inflation is sound advice. This reminds me of a old joke about the stock market:

"Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered".

Armstrong makes his money turning people into pigs.

[Terry L Smith]

all these BUY GOLD NOW ads all show MINTED coins, and maybe some ingots.
These minted coins, not design imprinted ‘rounds or bars’ are assayed and given a rating by one of many clearing houses. Precious metal sales stores usually have A house they choose for rating metals. when these coins are sold later on, the shop will offer the SPOT PRICE OF THE METAL, NOT THE MINTING PRICE OF THE COIN.

alot of places offer ‘gold certificates’ ....use them as emergency toilet paper!!!

[rottndog]

Silver is much more negotiable though...easier to trade at $23 an ounce.

[MotorCityBuck]

HA!! Perfect.

[TexasFreeper2009]

um... how about not EVER sending a wire and never giving financial information of any kind to anyone who initiated the conversation with you?

Is it really that hard?

[Vermont Lt]

I have a bunch of silver collected from elderly relatives. They all had big gallon jugs of silver change from the 40’s and 50s.

I certainly recall buying stuff with silver coins. I am in no hurry to sell it or dump It. My kids can wonder where I got these bags of silver. HAHA.

[xoxox]

Wish someone would do this scam and this scam, which seem to have turned otherwise good people into zombies.

[Faith65]

bfl

[Faith65]

bfl

[Timber Rattler]

That guy is a first class crook and currently on Putin’s payroll!

Great research!!!

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

Ask this simple question. They claim money is becoming worthless and you need to buy GOLD from them! If Gold is such a good bargain why are those with GOLD willing to sell it for worthless dollars?

[Widget Jr]

All markets respond to changes. If more investors followed Martin's advice, the market would stabilize and return to new normal. Then someone else would come along to take advantage of the new status quo. The problem for following Martin's advice is this:

• He is telling people what they already know.
• Most of what he says is irrelevant to any investing, and is so wrong it isn't funny.
• It is nonsense layered in confirmation bias ("the EU banking system has to collapse").
• He is making it up to draw people in to buy from his store.
• Divination has better accuracy than his Socrates "AI".

Martin made three good predictions about economic downturns during 1980s. That was it, and that was 40 years ago. Everything since then has been crap or worse. He did not take a plea deal over running a Ponzi scheme because he was making better investments than anyone else.

As for the claims of his accuracy which he himself has made, here is a list, of Armstrong's Major failed Predictions and The Failed Emerging Markets Meltdown Prediction

A stopped clock is right twice day. The other 8.46x10^-16s - 2x10^-20s the clock is wrong.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

—> Armstrong makes his money turning people into pigs.

Idiotic statement.

Armstrong sells research and educational meetings.
No gold.
No investments.

[Widget Jr]

Since it is necessary to explain context, irony and sarcasm, and point out misrepresentation, I will, its no big deal.

First, "Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered" is a historical reference from fur trading. "Bull" traders bought and held when the price increased. "Bear" traders sold fearing a price decline. "Pigs" were the ones who got greedy speculating and lost everything. They were the ones who got "slaughtered".

Second, my post is calling out Armstrong's real record of phony predictions. He does not buy or sell commodities or stocks and I never said he did. The "research and education" Armstrong sells is garbage for the gullible. Those who buy and follow his advice are the "pigs" who get "slaughtered".

Does this clear up the thread for you?

[aMorePerfectUnion]

—> Armstrong sells is garbage for the gullible.

Yes professionals of all kinds worldwide, including family offices, hedge fund managers, private account managers, etc. my former world for +30 years.

Obviously, you know so much more.

—> Those who buy and follow his advice…

It is research, not advice.

Professionals do not “follow” research.

Your ignorance on display again.

[Uncle Lonny]

A lot of people are buying Bitcoin instead of gold. At one time you could buy a Bitcoin for a dime. Now it is priced at $47K!

[Uncle Lonny]

A lot of people are buying Bitcoin instead of gold. At one time you could buy a Bitcoin for a dime. Now it is priced at $47K!

[Larry Lucido]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LBskGieRkY

Norm Macdonald - Infomercials (Gold and Reverse Mortgages)

[EEGator]

I miss Norm, he was awesome.

[gitmo]

Mookbark for tomorrow.