Posted on 06/07/2023 11:24:01 AM PDT by Tom Tetroxide
It looks like the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive may finally be getting underway. Yesterday, Russia repelled Ukrainian attacks in five places.
It’s very early — these were likely probing attacks looking to detect weak points in Russian defensive positions — but these attacks were much heavier than previous probing attacks.
We’ll have to see what happens.
When the main offensive comes, it’s very possible that Ukrainian forces will break through in certain areas. They might capture some territory (with plenty of U.S./NATO-supplied reconnaissance and intelligence to assist them), but it’s unlikely that their gains will be sustainable.
The offensive will probably peter out as Russian forces gradually grind it down.
Russia has several defensive lines in the region, fortified by minefields, anti-tank ditches, concrete obstacles known as dragon’s teeth, etc. These are formidable defenses that Russia has spent several months creating.
If Ukraine breaks through one line, it’ll have to confront another. And another. And another one after that.
It’s also important to realize that offensives on the scale envisioned require massive logistical support, and it’s far from clear that Ukraine has the resources to sustain a major offensive. It doesn’t help that Russia has been steadily targeting Ukrainian ammunition depots, transportation links, marshaling points, etc.
Meanwhile, Zelensky wants more Patriot missile systems. That’s because the Russians have already destroyed one-third of the systems we sent.
As I’ve argued before, Russia is winning the war. The West can’t afford to give Ukraine much more weaponry, and support for the war effort is declining.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailyreckoning.com ...
How does it end well? Well for those suffering and dying it doesn’t. For those pushing for this war and profiting from the billions we throw at it, it ends well if they are never held accountable.
Already 41 Ukrainian Tanks destroyed (including 8 of the German Leopards and 3 French) 120 Armored Personnel Carriers destroyed, 1 helicopter and 1 Jet fighter shot down and four THOUSAND causalities. This offensive will run out of steam in days if true.
Stats given by Alexander Mercouris podcast and based on Russian estimates.
“When the main offensive comes, it’s very possible that Ukrainian forces will break through in certain areas.”
Larry Johnson’s got to prepare those who have swallowed his propaganda for the disappointment that is going to come when reality kicks in. It’s called “letting them down easy”.
“This offensive will run out of steam in days if true.”
And when the offensive doesn’t run out of steam in days, you’ll know the Russian estimates were not true, won’t you?
It ends with Putyn , Prig and Ramzan hanging from the gallows. Putyn at the very least.
Maybe not in days but yes you make a valid point.
(i think either side might be able to cover up the truth for weeks)
Nobody wins this damned thing.
From the start, I’ve said putin couldn’t win. He could destroy, but not win.
Winning entails being able to govern. putin and his cronies will be able to govern neither Russia nor Ukraine.
The rage from the wounds inflicted on both countries will have the populations savagely sabotaging anything Russian for decades to come.
It was the stupidest invasion since Napoleon went into Russia. And I think its ramifications are even far worse and more far-reaching than that.
Only China and perhaps Turkey will win this.
A cease fire. Trump says he can end this, let him suspend or drop his campaign, let Biden ask him to go and secure a ceasefire and peace.
It doesnt.
Russia’s motivation for this war was to use the Ukraine energy supply to NATO / EU as a leverage point to keep the EU out of the future China / Taiwan conflict.
I was supposed to be a rout of the Ukrainian forces. But that didn’t happen. Now Russia has painted itself into a corner. The only “win” Russia sees is to take over Ukraine. Otherwise, a stalemate cause Russia to loose politically. If Russia gets pushed out of Crimea, then that is a BIG loss.
Remember that the real conflict is between the US dollar based central banking system and BRICS. Their plan was to push for a BRICS based world economy after the EU was side lined via Ukrain and China showed the world that the US could not successfully defend it’s friends in Asia.
Now none of that BRICS objectives appear to be moving forward. In fact, it appears to be loosing ground. But there is not an exit strategy.
So, cant stop, cant back down, cant move forward. No gracefull options left.
They should ask the Germans. And the French before them.
Any time there is a war it never ends well. Even if there is a clear cut good guy / bad guy (almost never) and the good guys win quickly (also almost never) it has not ended well.
Innocent people who had nothing to do with it will continue to suffer for decades.
War is not the most horrible thing in the world but it is right up there.
I believe China, for all intents and purposes, controls Taiwan, with moles infiltrating throughout government, business and armed forces.
But it’s useful to keep the conflict going, so as to gain US secrets as they believe Taiwan is “friendly”.
Interesting article.
In a month the dneiper will be a small river easily breached with pontoon bridges in several places. The land will be dried up so tanks can move on the eastern and southern side.
Suddenly a broad area of the russian front will become vulnerable to attack. there will be no defenses.
The Russians know this right now. How will they react? Will they thin out their lines elsewhere to make the area less vulnerable? Or not. Either options poses problems.
Meanwhile, Zelensky wants more Patriot missile systems. That’s because the Russians have already destroyed one-third of the systems we sent.
That’s just false and destroys the credibility of this screed.
It seems the Ukr offensive main push is to encircle Bakhmut (as I suspected the reason why Ukr held it so long).
So far it’s off to a promising start for them.
Less than a hour old:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOJ48Xw4RrU
‘Their plan was to push for a BRICS based world economy after the EU was side lined...”
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is scheduled to run from 14-17JUN2023 with 81 nations attending. This has been happening since 1997. The East is rising as the West falls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_International_Economic_Forum
De-dollarization is ramping up.
De-Dollarization Just Got Real
A multi-polar world is bad news for the American Empire but great news for gold
by John Rubino
https://rubino.substack.com/p/de-dollarization-just-got-real
“(i think either side might be able to cover up the truth for weeks)”
Our MSM will be able to cover up the truth for years.
Russia’s motivation for this war was to use the Ukraine energy supply to NATO / EU as a leverage point to keep the EU out of the future China / Taiwan conflict.
It’s not that complicated. Putin and Russian chauvinists of his ilk consider Ukraine to be part of Russia and Ukrainians to be “bad” Russians. Ukrainian patriots naturally disagree with that assessment and are willing to defend their national sovereignty against another genocidal assault from Moscovy. This is not the first rodeo for either party here and this has literally nothing to do with anything other than those issues.
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