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4.5%, and the Demographics of American Murder
datahazard.substack ^ | March 8, 2023 | datahazard

Posted on 03/12/2023 8:22:50 AM PDT by Towed_Jumper

It’s impossible to understand the current moment in history without understanding the ongoing spike in violence across America.

And — due to local city politics & broken incentives in documenting crime — the only legitimate national measure of violence is found in Murder data. It’s just not that easy to hide a body.

You’ve surely heard a lot about crime since May 25, 2020. But it can all be summarized with just one number.

This is a comprehensive review on the demographics of murderers and their victims; published here with the goal of educating the public on an under reported topic, and with the hope of improving criminal justice policy in some small way. 4.5%

The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?

4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.

4.4% to 7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every single year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.

4.35% is the backward-looking 60-year murder victimization rate of Black Males age 15-74, based on the 410,000 actual murder victims since 1968.

These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.

What about repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?

4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021

(Excerpt) Read more at datahazard.substack.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Reference; Society
KEYWORDS: bidenvoters; blacks; crime; murder; splc
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This is an extremely long article that is both data and graphs-intensive and therefore proves difficult to summarize in just a few sentences. The source data is from various governmental crime statistics and I believe his extrapolations of that data are both comprehensive and insightful.

You'll want to be prepared to spend some time on this article because there's a lot here to be unpacked.

The current push for 'reparations' is not going fix this.

1 posted on 03/12/2023 8:22:50 AM PDT by Towed_Jumper
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To: Towed_Jumper
Dilbert was right.

2 posted on 03/12/2023 8:27:56 AM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (LORD, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil.)
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To: Towed_Jumper
The current push for 'reparations' is not going fix this.

The reparations lunatics assure us that no black people anywhere will ever again commit any crime once they get their million dollar checks.

3 posted on 03/12/2023 8:28:11 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (There is lots of money and power in Green Communism and we all know where Communism ends.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

So was Enoch Powell.


4 posted on 03/12/2023 8:30:53 AM PDT by Noumenon (You're not voting your way out of this. KTF)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

Murderers-taking a life should result in life. How do you it cheaper if the death penalty won’t do? Banishment. Internal exile. Make them walk along abandoned railroad tracks. Out of sight out of mind. $100 billion saved.


5 posted on 03/12/2023 8:35:43 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: Noumenon
Rivers of blood.

6 posted on 03/12/2023 8:36:27 AM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (LORD, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil.)
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To: Towed_Jumper

later


7 posted on 03/12/2023 8:38:17 AM PDT by libertylover (Our biggest problem, by far, is that almost all of big media is AGENDA-DRIVEN, not-truth driven.)
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To: Towed_Jumper
410,000 since 1968.

I like to put that in perspective that makes that number feel more real.

Now add three more to this one, and that will be close to the number they are talking about.

8 posted on 03/12/2023 8:40:19 AM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: Towed_Jumper

Not much has changed. In the 1970’s a study was done that found that urban black males has a 5% chance of being murdered by the time they were 40. This data was collected in the pre AIDS era and the rate of drug addiction was not as high in the 60’s and 70’s among blacks as it became later. Suspect the death rate from murder, drug overdoses, AIDS and hepatitis rose the death rate to closer to 10-15% by age 40 at its peak. Black leadership chronically blames racism but the real answers however difficult lie within the individual and the black community.


9 posted on 03/12/2023 8:43:32 AM PDT by allendale
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To: Noumenon

uncontrolled immigration leads do a funeral pyre.

The Nation’s funeral.


10 posted on 03/12/2023 8:44:56 AM PDT by wita (Under oath since 1966 in defense of Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness)
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To: Towed_Jumper

bkmk


11 posted on 03/12/2023 8:50:13 AM PDT by sauropod (“If they don’t believe our lies, well, that’s just conspiracy theorist stuff, there.”)
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To: Abathar

Killers or killed?


12 posted on 03/12/2023 8:52:00 AM PDT by Chickensoup (Genocide is here. Leftist extremists are spearhheading the Genocide against conservatives. )
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To: Towed_Jumper

I own a rental house in a former mostly black neighborhood that is “gentrifying.” That means that a lot of really attractive lots were bought and built on and sold to whites. These are stick built homes as opposed to the mostly mobile homes that were there before.

Last year two black men started exchanging gunfire about three houses down from where my house is. According to witnesses, numerous shots were exchanged at ridiculous close ranges. The pair made their way down to the front of my house and proceeded to take a left at the intersecting street. Then (wait for it) they both went into a house several down from mine. No further shots were fired.

I got the story first from my renters and then from my black neighbor, the former air force sergeant, who lives near the house they ended up in. I felt my tonsils drying out as he as he confirmed the renter’s story. I said, “What the heck was that about?” He said, “N****r’s being n****rs.”

There’s something psychologists call “display behavior.” An example of this is when your cat puffs up, hisses and turns sideway to appear larger. When cops fire fifty rounds and none of the human “targets” get hit, that also is display behavior. There is generally a lot of drug trade in the neighborhood, and I notice the cops steer clear.


13 posted on 03/12/2023 8:52:33 AM PDT by Gen.Blather (Wait! I said that out loud? )
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To: Towed_Jumper

The numbers for all violent crime must be way higher


14 posted on 03/12/2023 8:52:50 AM PDT by Chickensoup (Genocide is here. Leftist extremists are spearhheading the Genocide against conservatives. )
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To: wita

“uncontrolled immigration leads do a funeral pyre.”

Are many of the Black folk involved in urban violence immigrants?


15 posted on 03/12/2023 9:05:17 AM PDT by Renfrew (Muscovia delenda est)
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To: Towed_Jumper

Luckily no one will ever learn this information because it will be branded “racist” and banned.


16 posted on 03/12/2023 9:08:35 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (The worst thing about censorship is ████ █ ██████ ███████ ███ ██████ ██ ████████. FJB.)
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To: Abathar
Now add three more to this one, and that will be close to the number they are talking about.

Amazing visual perspective.

Also consider that the number of blacks murdered by other blacks during this time frame exceeds the 405,000 American men killed fighting in WWII.

17 posted on 03/12/2023 9:16:40 AM PDT by Towed_Jumper (“A nation without a central bank is like a digestive tract without a tapeworm.” F. Saunders)
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To: wita

Hence my tagline.


18 posted on 03/12/2023 9:18:39 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Chickensoup

Killed


19 posted on 03/12/2023 9:22:05 AM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: Gen.Blather
There is generally a lot of drug trade in the neighborhood, and I notice the cops steer clear.

Too much paperwork for the police to arrest and process? Or, maybe too big a risk of getting shot at?

20 posted on 03/12/2023 9:28:52 AM PDT by Towed_Jumper (“A nation without a central bank is like a digestive tract without a tapeworm.” F. Saunders)
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