The situation on 11th November
Since then the western bank Kherson has fallen.
On the eastern bank, the Russians are losing more land and haven't even occupied that much of left bank Ukraine in the first place
Posted on 11/13/2022 6:29:55 AM PST by Cathi
Col. MacGregor has been informed by his military sources that Jake Sullivan in his back channel talks with Russia informed them that the U.S. is aware that Russia has a big offensive coming and discussed "red lines." He "threatened" Russia that the U.S. has 40,000 combat troops in Poland "training." And 50,000 Polish troops.
When Russia was asked about the back channel communication with Sullivan they said, "We discussed "red lines."
November 12, 2022 Responsible Statecraft
Macgregor, a West Point graduate, is an acquired taste: outspoken and controversial. He has flagged reporters with his statements about immigrants (we need martial law at the U.S.-Mexico border), Iranians (we need to look for areas where we can cooperate), Afghanistan (we have no business being there) Iraq (we should have left, long ago), and Syria (we should get out immediately). Those views aren’t to everyone’s liking, but they’re especially controversial in the military, whose staid stance on foreign interventions does not countenance the kind of dissent in the upper ranks that Macgregor represents. Macgregor, it is said, has refused to “stay in his lane,” has been too outspoken, too vocal, and not really a team player.
Yet, senior military officers quietly admit that in terms of sheer intellect, no one quite matches Macgregor. Several years ago, I asked a senior U.S. Marine Corps officer to name each of the services’s most creative thinkers. His answers were entirely predictable to anyone with even a passing knowledge of those in uniform, except when it came to the Army. He didn’t hesitate: “It’s Doug Macgregor,” he said. “He’s the best thinker they have, living or dead.” Retired Gen. Tommy Franks would probably disagree.
Franks, the former commander of Operation Iraqi Freedom, brought Macgregor (then still in uniform), to U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa in the run-up to the Iraq War in early 2002 to brief his war planners. Macgregor took a roundabout, but effective route, in getting there: he had briefed Newt Gingrich on his own war plan for Iraq, and Gingrich was so taken by what he had to say that he recommended him to then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who insisted that Franks hear him out.
Macgregor’s appearance in Tampa is now a part of Army legend. The U.S. military can take Baghdad with 15,000 troops, Macgregor announced to the room of uniformed experts. The statement stunned Franks, as did Macgregor’s advice on “Phase IV” (postwar) operations — which had not been mentioned in his briefing. Why wasn’t it there? Macgregor was asked. “The reason it’s not there,” Macgregor said, “is because we’re not going to need it. We’re going to turn the governing of Iraq over to the Iraqis, then we’re going to get out.”
Whereupon Mike Fitzgerald, one of Franks’ most senior planners, got up from his seat and left the room. “I think it was at that point that Doug’s career ended,” a fellow West Point graduate says. That’s probably true, but only in part.
While Macgregor retired soon after his Tampa appearance, he did so only after talking with then-Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki. Macgregor told Shinseki that the Army needed to get lighter and faster, cutting away its logistic tail and its top-heavy officer corps. Shinseki not only agreed, he was planning his own Macgregor-like series of reforms. But the talk with Shinseki wasn’t the first time Macgregor had made his mark. Shinseki’s immediate predecessor, Army Chief of Staff Dennis Reimer, required his senior staff to read “Breaking the Phalanx,” Macgregor’s 1997 book on how the Army should fight. Reimer helped to put Macgregor’s innovations on the map. This is where we need to go, Reimer told his staff.
And then there’s 73 Easting.
Arguably, none of Doug Macgregor’s later influence would have been possible without the Battle of 73 Easting (named for its map coordinates — its “phase lines”), which is still studied by armored officers as one of the most significant, and most lopsided, tank victories in the history of American warfare. The battle took place on February 26, 1991 — when elements of the U.S. 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, under Macgregor, took on the tanks of the Tawakalna Division of Saddam Hussein’s vaunted Republican Guard. Macgregor expertly maneuvered his tanks through the enemy lines — directing his tank leaders, one of whom was H.R. McMaster, through the enemy lines. Macgregor lost one man killed, but his tank squadrons destroyed dozens of armored vehicles. The battle had a deep effect on Macgregor, who remembers talking with one of the Iraqi prisoners after the battle: “Why do you not go to Baghdad now?” the prisoner asked him. “You have the power. Your army rules the heavens and the earth. Do you think we love Saddam?” In the years that followed, the Iraqi prisoners’ words haunted Macgregor. The road to Baghdad was open — but America didn’t take it.
Ironically, in one of those odd twists of history, Macgregor’s role as the commander of his tank squadrons is often ignored, while McMaster is remembered and celebrated. Then too, as any senior Army officer will testify, Macgregor’s outspoken and often too-public critique of his own service hurt his chances for promotion. Macgregor questioned everything: why are we staying in Afghanistan? Or Iraq? Or Syria? Why are we prosecuting these endless wars? Doug Macgregor had lots of time to ponder these questions, particularly during Operation Iraqi Freedom, as his kinsman and fellow officer, McMaster, was adding to his laurels during the Anbar Awakening, where he performed brilliantly. Macgregor, meanwhile, was sidelined and marginalized, with a position at the National Defense University.
And so, it seems the McMaster-Macgregor narrative was set. McMaster got his stars, while Doug Macgregor went on to a career as a military historian. McMaster became the acolyte to greatness (the up-and-coming friend of David Petraeus), a controversial president’s national security advisor (one of the “adults in the room”), a gruff-voiced patriot (warning us incessantly of looming threats in Russia, China, Iran, etc.), and all-around “team player.”
Macgregor has always shrugged this off: his old friend deserves his stars, deserves his praise, and has proved his courage. Team player? It’s true: McMaster has been so fitted to his uniform that he looks like a throwback, a latter-day Patton. He’s the quintessential team player in a service that prizes staying in your lane, that rewards teamwork. And Macgregor? Oddly, and ironically — and for all of his outspoken views on ending America’s endless wars, Doug Macgregor has also been a team player.
He’s just been on the wrong team.
So you think Macgregor is so smart. If he were smart he would have kept his mouth shut. Like Trump should do, and like DeSantis will learn to do once we get Trump out and bring DeSantis to heel. Just because they are smart doesn't mean they can say what they like. Sheesh.
The Macgregor who said the war was over for the Ukrainians? Okay
"The war is really over for the Ukrainians," Macgregor said. "They have been grounded to bits. There's no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media.
Guess it’s obvious why MacGregor was a Trump favorite...:-)
In Russia and Ukraine winter is coming. I have no idea who is winning or losing this mess(and I don’t read any of the silly articles posted here because they are all unfactual) but, winter is coming
“In Russia and Ukraine winter is coming.”
The Russians have this desperate hope that winter will save them, but Ukraine has been very clear there will be no decrease in their operational tempo over the winter months.
200K Ukrainian troops have been freed up after the victory at Kherson. Hopefully the boys get a few days off, but after that those troops will return to kicking Russians in the teeth on a new front.
Careful, you’ll be labeled a Russian troll for even suggesting we are being fed industrial strength propaganda, BTW I agree with you
Neither Trump nor Desantis have a snowballs chance in hell in the election for POTUS.
This election proved that.
The next, they’ll allow the illegals to vote and its all over.
As far as the Ukraine war. That will end with The Ukraine losing much of its lands EAST of the Dnieper. That allows the criminal cabal, that many support on this forum, to continue to launder money through that shithole.
THE UKRAINE WAR IS A COVER FOR THE CRIME SYNDICATE IN DC..and across the world.
By the time the next “election” happens, you, and I and everyone will be OWNED and CONTROLLED by the DC crime syndicate through the banking system. YOU, and I, and everyone will have to have a chip implanted into his/her hand to be able to buy or sell, or hold any job. Think I am full of shit? Take a look at your Debit or Credit cards. Whats that tell you? All they have to do is say..its fool proof, get your micro chip and that’ll prevent theft of your financial funds from your banking account. People will accept that willingly.
The Crime boss has already signed orders to start the elimination of CASH within the banking system.
So we can all squeal like little piggys, but its starting.
Been waiting for this to happen for years now. And its here.
In other words, since the DC warmongers and our media masters have decided we shouldn’t be aware of these existential threats, sit down and STFU. If the idiot traitors in the Pentagon and illegitimate gang in the White House wanted people to be aware, they’d toss this into the media masters’ feeding trough for our consumption.
[...winter is coming]
Yes, but Arya fights for Ukraine.
.@TheStudyofWar said #Russia had set up a new military base, approximately 70km south-east of #Kherson, describing it as “an effort to protect their equipment from Ukrainian #HIMARS [artillery rocket system] strikes," reports @FT.https://t.co/4L9wCvMf15 pic.twitter.com/gbMR478nT4— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 13, 2022
MacGregor has been on the radio since early March predicting a Russian takeover of Ukraine for nearly 10 months now. I’m still waiting….
He’s like the other prognosticator Gordon Chang, who has been predicting the imminent collapse of China for almost 20 years.
Actually, I have gone over this here on FR many times. Here is one of the most recent (3 weeks ago) posts I have made on this subject.
“why did it take Russia this long?”
______________________
Because this “war” has actually been two entirely different “wars.”
Unfortunately most freepers do not understand that Putin’s original mission for the “special military operation” was rather limited to the exact things he publicly specified. Independence for the Donbass (though still being in Ukraine) demilitarization (getting rid of the NATO equipment) denazification (despite ignorant freepers confusing some of the public in many countries being Nazis...including ours...with Ukraine’s government and MILITARY being controlled by NAZIs.) And, of course an agreement to never join NATO.
Most freepers do not even know that when early in Zelensky’s administration he tried to push back on them they openly threatened to kill him...he backed down. Most freepers also don’t know that we deliberately chose the Nazi’s (nationalists, Azov, etc.) to train and to send to the front in the Donbass because they were the most brutal and most likely to get the job done.
Any country that has Nazi brigades (and Ukraine has a lot of them) is a Nazi administration.
So, Russia planned a minimal kinetic action and openly made clear they would leave Ukraine once the mission was accomplished. Russia began negotiations with Zelensky, they reached a tentative agreement in March and Boris Johnson and Lloyd Austin paid visits to Zelensky to tell him that if he went through with the agreement they would no longer support Ukraine. But, if they stayed in the “war” NATO would provide all the weapons and money he needed. He chose their offer over Russia’s.
Russia continued the “operation” making slow gains with few casualties, killed an enormously large amount of Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed an enormous amount of military equipment.
When that happened NATO (read: the United States) realized Russia would win, couldn’t let that happen and escalated their monetary and equipment support, even bringing Ukrainians into NATO countries for training to NATO standards. Ukraine engaged in 7 mobilizations. And developing high paid mercenary programs to enlarge the force. And Mi-6 worked with Ukraine to go on a large counter offensive at multiple points. (They planned and trained for this for 3 months.) At that point Russia had 150,000 troops in Ukraine and Ukraine forces were up to 400,000.
Russia came to the realization that this wasn’t a Russia vs. Ukraine war. This was a Russia vs. NATO war. Since that point they have been readjusting to the new reality.
If they were able to take 20% of Ukrainian territory with very minimal forces, obviously their advantage is likely to be much greater when they have approximately 500,000 troops involved. They have expanded their arsenal extensively including the items I mentioned earlier...and brought in 800 new tanks, 11 strategic bombers. 800 planes and helos. They are planning for a big campaign.
And the nonsense about Russia’s mobilized troops being so inferior is wrong. These newly mobilized troops are all former troops who were on Reserve classification. And, even more important than that is that Ukraine forces have been decimated. The kill ratio throughout this “war” has been 10 Ukrainians for every one Russian. Ukraine is down to conscripting 16 yr. olds and 65 year olds and they are in the process of registering women.
If you have been following this saga I am sure you realize that just in the last week Russia has knocked out much of Ukraine’s energy system.
The foreigners who are “getting out of Dodge” are making the right call. Ukraine is not someplace anyone will want to be when the ground freezes in November.
______________________
When MacGregor (and Ritter, too, for that matter) said that Russia was grinding Ukraine down and the war would be over soon they were talking about the first war...the war against Ukraine. And they were right!
Now we are in the second war...the war against NATO and Russia has been preparing for it for months. NATO (read: us) has been escalating continuously and this Macgregor video outlines that we have now threatened Russia with bringing in 90,000 troops (U.S. and Polish.)
Both MacGregor and Ritter still believe Russia’s victory is assured unless nuclear weapons become involved. Russia has depleted huge quantities of NATO’s armory, leaving many NATO countries below defense capabilities WITH NOTHING LEFT TO SEND TO UKRAINE. Italy’s new president has decided not to take part in Phase 6 contributions and will just complete the aid her predecessor promised. Even the U.S. has run out of the weapons they previously sent and are now reduced to buying broken weapons from Eastern European countries and letting out contracts for repair and refurbishing so they can be sent to Ukraine. We are sending Hawk missiles (system began in the 1970s) but they will all have to be refurbished. So this refurbished and repaired equipment will not come until next year. The new stuff is being ordered from MIC and that will come between next year and 2024.
In October alone Russia killed 12,000 Ukrainian troops while losing 1,300 of their own. Ukraine is now actively conscripting women (a post on Telegram showed the notice of a pregnant woman) So Ukraine has run out of man power and Russia is increasing to half a million. You do the math.
Just today a member of Kiev’s city council suggested that residents should go away for the winter. He said it was going to be a very bad situation there (no electricty, no heat, limited water and sewage.)
I understand that most freepers only get limited, censored, manipulated info on this war. Ergo, they are clueless. The bottom line is Russia is currently winning even with their small force on the front line. To date, there have been approximately 10,00 KIA (including both separtists troops and Wagner and Chechen fighters) and Ukraine has had over 105,000 KIA.
It will be interesting to see if the U.S. can entice Russia to call off their upcoming campaign. For the sake of the Ukrainian people I hope we find a way to negotiate a settlement before that campaign happens.
The Colonel said a convoy of American troops drove from Poland to Romania and had to avoid Hungary so they went through Moldova is pure nonsense. Just look at a map of Europe to see that would be physically impossible unless the Americans drove right across the heart of Ukraine meaning they would not even need to approach Moldova. Pure nonsense.
Those casualty numbers are so all over the map that it’s hard to determine whose figures are correct.
We have various estimates here :
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Take your pick as to which figures you want to believe. We DO KNOW that what was estimated to be a quick operation has been dragging on for nearly a year with massive casualties on both sides.
It’s not a matter of “which figures you want to believe.” Even your own source made clear that Ukraine deliberately lies. “Initially, the known number of Ukrainian military casualties varied widely due to the Ukrainian Army drastically understating its casualties,[17] as reported by medics, activists and soldiers on the ground, as well as at least one lawmaker.[17][18][19][20][21] Several medical officials reported they were overstretched due to the drastic number of casualties.” “Mid-June, Davyd Arakhamia, Ukraine’s chief negotiator with Russia, told Axios that between 200 and 500 Ukrainian soldiers were killed every day.”
Russian defense minister Shoigu has said that Ukrainians were losing 2,500 a week...so 10,000 deaths a month. He also stated when he outlined the move out of Kherson city that in October alone 13,000 Ukrainians were killed. And during the announcement of the partial mobilization two months ago Shoigu said that there were already 61,000 Ukrainians killed in action and 50,000 wounded.
And even if one wants to believe the 17,000 figure from the BBC in your source for Russian deaths which they admit they have added 40-60% guestimate to the 8,000 they found in order to cover deaths that they may not have names for there is no comparison to the massive Ukrainian deaths.
Here’s a little clue for deciding what to “believe.” Ukraine has mobilized 7 times in this conflict. Until September Russia had never mobilized (and most of the new mobilized troops are still in training; not in Ukraine.)
Russia entered the war with under 200,000 troops...how much “under” has never been disclosed. But, since they currently have 150,000 without having had a mobilization obviously the KIA plus wounded (which means wounded enough that they can’t return to battle) they have not incurred “massive” deaths.
No one ever expected a war of Russia vs. NATO “was estimated to be a quick operation.” Actually many analysts believe that the Russia vs. NATO war may go on for years.
The war between Russia and Ukraine WAS quick, basically over around June. What is going on now is a new war between Russia and some sort of a hodgepodge force, some leftover hohos and an amalgam of mercs from various places including ISIS and Al Quaida fighters +Poles and other nato troops stupid enough to want to be involved. But the hoho army that began the war early on no longer exists, neither men nor equipment...
The situation on 11th November
Since then the western bank Kherson has fallen.
On the eastern bank, the Russians are losing more land and haven't even occupied that much of left bank Ukraine in the first place
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