Posted on 09/12/2022 8:46:31 AM PDT by Cathi
Latest update from The New Atlas focusing on the realities of Ukraine's recent tactical victory vs. the enormous structural cost that likely leads to speeding up to Ukraine's eventual strategic failure.
Ukraine lost 5-7 brigades (20,000 to 28,000 men) in just that short 10 day period of "counter offensive." Makes the interesting point that Russia's decision to withdraw eliminated Ukraine's ability to significantly reduce Russia's manpower or weaponry. By enticing Ukraine to come out of their covered defensive positions and into the open it has provided an easier target for Russia to attack by air and artillery Ukraine's stretched out thin forces in Kharkov which is what Russia is now doing.
Interesting clips of WW11 documentary of Hiltler's similar attempt to throw everything into a last ditch effort to get a success and how it actually resulted in speeding up his defeat.
Very enjoyable to get to see the WW11 clips.
LOL. How do you lose more by retreating before the enemy arrived?
Outside Harkov, it is safe to say that Ukraine is losing 30 to 1 to the Russian side. Advancing over the open field against artillery and air power does it.
The problem with this theory is that in the age of satellites and drones, the Ukrainians know where the Russians are all the time.
And the Russians didn’t just fall back, they abandoned tanks and artillery as they did.
Not saying the war is over, but there is no point in spinning this as a Russian win. It seems more to indicate that after months of facing a hard pounding, the Ukrainians are finding their footing. Better weapons have made a big difference, it’s allowed them to hollow out the Russian backfield in a way they couldn’t before.
Whatever happened to the idea that the Ukraine war would be over after about a month after the Russian invasion?
Russia is close to losing 100,000 soldiers in the invasion, and likely, hundreds of billions in military equipment.
Ukrainians are ‘at home’, while the Russians are away from home and nowhere to go but back home, in body bags or suffering from injuries or just plain running away from the battle.
But, according to the report above, and the supporting FR members here, Ukraine is close to losing.
GMAMFB!!!
In ten years time, Ukraine will still be close to losing. Give Me Another Mother F Break!
Nice thought, but it also brought the remnant of capable Uke troops out of their holes and into a kill-box.
Didn't help that they announced their "offensive" weeks in advance so everyone could prepare, but necon morons gotta moron and fight wars through western media.
So far of 15 comments, 6 are from identified Pooty Pals. We can count on Comrade Cathy to find/create bad news wereever there is good news.
I actually do not see it this way, but who knows? The 800 miles front is indeed a problem, especially when facing a numerically superior enemy, even if the tecnological advantage is yours.
The Ukrainians concentrated on the least important and the least defended area and won their headlines even though it is not a lot of victory for them and not a lot of defeat for the other side.
You can bet on the media to spin it with all the hubris, totally ignoring the catastrophe of the offensive in every other area.
This is where the Narrative War will backfire on the Ukies and the West [We have recaptured our TERRITORY!!].
It will accomplish the same thing that ground down the Wehrmacht on the Eastern Front in WWII.
Of course, before the inevitable, the Ukie orcs [the Fighting Ukrukhai] will have time to do the Bucha thing on the unfortunate villagers in the temporarily occupied areas, and photograph their killing sprees to blame on the Russians.
see my post #27
This report has elements of truth I am sure but to call this a withdrawal makes it sound orderly and by many accounts this was not. Equipment and ammunition left behind and not destroyed Yes they withdrew but it has the hallmarks of a rout. Whether the Ukrainians can hold onto these gains and make further advances time will tell. What seems to me to come from this will effect moral and may effect the whole Russian front. Looks like these troops were abandoned and left to their own means to “withdraw” and that is not a good image. One comment said that Russia has barely used their pinky in this operation. Perhaps but their losses appear to be much more and if Russia has this much trouble with a smaller nation what does that say about their military overall. Is it troops, logistics, strategy an/or leadership time will tell. The overall optic is not good.
They announced their counteroffensive in Kherson and hit them in Kharkiv.
What’s interesting is the Russians don’t seem to have seen it coming.
Whichever team you favor, no point in spinning what happened.
Nobody spins it as a Russian victory, the idea is that it isn’t that much of the Ukrainian victory.
The spins of better weapons is a bunch of baloney as well.
Me: Russia can level Kiev.
You: Argh, piss, whine, herp, derp.
Anything else moronic to contribute?
My football team showed great Russian strategy this week giving up 30+ points lulling the other team into a sense of victorious complacency.
Good thing they didn't lose any guys in the Kherson Oblast "distraction".
Oh, wait...
“Russia tried to run this war “on the cheap” - much like USA at the height of the “war on terror.” No mobilization, no draft. Just extend deployments, maximize use of “national guards” etc - spend a lot of money but don’t let it influence the daily life of the nation.
Russia also kept the war “limited” even in Ukraine. They left utilities on all over Ukraine, didn’t attack cities, as they expected to rule these people in the future.
both of these things seems to have stretched them very thin. They had to abandon Kharkov area when faced with massed Ukraine forces (who also took a severe beating - some estimates are 40K killed-wounded.)
Expect Russia to change its strategy. It will need to turn up the heat - a lot. Also expect the winter to be a hell for Ukrainian people. I imagine this is all playing into the hands of US deep state planners.”
The Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to strengthen the counteroffensive, but got into a fire bag. After a successful first day, Ukrainian troops are forced to withdraw. Russian troops inflicted a massive fire strike, rocket artillery and aircraft on the mechanized groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine thrown to the southern bank of the Ingulets through a pontoon crossing in Andreevka .
Russian troops strike at accumulations of manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the northern outskirts of Sukhoi Stavka and Kostromka . The enemy has been thrown back from Bruskinsky .
Resident
⚡️⚡️ ⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the operation #Battle_for_Kherson was developed jointly by the General Staff/British military and the Pentagon. The main task is to destroy the ammunition depots and enemy artillery, after which the second stage will begin. Now the main blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inflicting on the Krivoy Rog direction in order to move the front to Kherson.
Resident
⚡️⚡️ ⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that now there are 7 groups of DRGs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Energodar, who are waiting for support from Nikopol.
The operation was prepared by MI-6 specialists who have extensive experience, they landed in 5 places at the same time, near Ivanovka, the dispensary of the Dachi Volna nuclear power plant, the holiday village near the state district power station and 2 groups at the Zaporizhzhya NPP. The total number of participating in the operation is 700 special forces. It turned out that yesterday military helicopters were transferred to Dneprovka, which means that the operation became known to the Russian special services. The entire coast is being shot at by Russian military helicopters, which were not destroyed by HIMARS at the bases, but they calmly took off and cleared summer cottages near the coast of the Dnieper.
Resident
⚡️⚡️ ⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the operation to seize the ZNPP by military special forces was developed jointly by the General Staff and British intelligence, taking into account the experience of MI6. Now at the Bank meeting with the security forces, an analysis is underway of the failure of the operation and where the information was leaked to the Russian troops, who were aware of all the details of the operation.
Resident
⚡️⚡️ ⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that they want to make Zaluzhny responsible for the failure of the operation to seize the ZNPP, Bankovaya is not happy with the situation with the counteroffensive and leaking secret information about the special operation. On paper, the whole plan was perfect, it was prepared by MI-6 specialists, but it turned out to be difficult to implement, who leaked information that only the General Staff and the President’s Office knew about?
This one came a few days later.
This is the latest (interesting) post from an Ukrainian site that I follow:
legitimate https://t.me/s/legitimniy/
#Layout #Rumors #Case Offensive In general, the offensive in the Kherson direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is going very hard, and this despite the fact that the first shock waves included only special forces and trained elite groups that were preparing all this time in Poland, the Czech Republic and Britain . Our source explains the strategy that the Office of the President was trying to implement. - the first wave: strike groups of special forces. The task is to cut through the “trenches” and bite into the defensive positions of the Russians. Approximate participation 5.000 people.
- second wave: followed immediately after the first, already consisted of regular units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which went through the spring campaign and have good combat experience. The task will be fixed in the occupied territories. Approximate participation of 10,000 people
- the third and fourth wave: is underway now, and consists of additional special forces deployed from other regions, as well as the Armed Forces of Ukraine with combat experience of at least four months. The task is to try to bite into the defensive ranks, bringing at least some territorial success, so that the OP can report. Approximate number of participants: 10,000
- the fifth wave , now they are being brought from the rear: it consists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense. The task is to crush the live mass of the enemy, who will run out of steam to reflect the waves. Approximate number: 20.000
As the source points out, the fighters from the first and second waves were divided into 4 sections. Only on one it turned out to crash well into the depths, but due to the failures of the partners in other places, it turned out that they climbed like a “worm”, but did not connect with another group, but fell into the “bag”.
Now draw conclusions about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Zelensky has been preparing this offensive operation for more than three months. This was supposed to be a trump card in the negotiation case, and possibly the beginning of the fall of Russia. Therefore, now they are throwing more and more forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the offensive.
206.4Kviews
00:30
legitimate
#Rumors
Our source reports that Zelensky has already been informed that the Western lobby is also promoting the Head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov, into the political game.
Western lobbyists are expanding the “bench”, which will soon be equal to Zelensky in ratings and image. Many put Budanov on the same level as Zaluzny. One difference, Budanova Bankovaya has not yet tried to remove and merge, as she did not consider him as a political competitor.
Perhaps the failure of the special operation to seize the nuclear power plant in Energodar will be attributed to him, thereby knocking him out of the game right away. This is provided that he begins to more actively pump his positive image with an emphasis on political ambitions.
151.3Kviews
01:51
Two important points in my opinion. First, they spent 3 months training and equipping these troops and they had held them back until their “counter offensive plan” started. They failed in Part 1 (nuclear power plan.) Then they failed after an initial tiny success in Part 2 (Kherson.)
They semi-succeeded in Part 3 because Russia was poorly prepared for it and frankly was undermanned. This was inevitable because they are forced to stay in the minimal force level because it is against Russian law to commit conscript troops outside of Russia unless Russia is in a declared war.
This was why Russia was over eager to get the now delayed Kherson and Zap_________ referendum completed because it would allow Russia to bring conscripts into those two regions.
Russia could just declare war but it would immediately destroy the remarkable economy they have created and maintained during this conflict so it would be self-defeating.
When Russia invaded in February they never intended to stay or to take large swaths of territory so the “minimal force special operation” was sufficient. Once they finally realized after the March failure of the negotiations (instituted by BoJo) they finally understood this was not a Russia vs. Ukraine temporary tussle; but a U.S./NATO war against Russia so they are in a quandary right now.
Second important point is made by Scott Ritter. Ukraine had approximately 6 brigades prepared for this offensive...they threw it all in. All they have left besides that is approximately 4 brigades that are still in EU countries in early training.
At this point Ukraine has blown through over 15,000 of those troops. Ritter says with each new extension of territory Ukraine has to leave much of their troops flanking the side of the new territory in order to keep it and then using the continuously smaller amount left to push forward. They are out of troops to push much more. And NATO snuck in a lot of undeclared weapons for this counter offensive. They are being destroyed continuously even with Russia no longer fighting in those areas.
NATO is out of new weapons to replace these. At this point they can only “order” new weapons from the MIC most of which they won’t see for a year or more.
National News Service
The Russian authorities are preparing to change the status of the
special military operation in Ukraine. This was announced by the
political strategist Marat Bashirov. Kadyrov announced the return of
elite fighters to the Donbass “A change in the status of the NMD is
being prepared,” the expert wrote in his Telegram channel. At the
same time, Bashirov did not specify what he had in mind,
Radiotochka NSN reports. “Let the official authorities announce it,”
the political strategist said. Earlier, the State Duma proposed to give
the special operation in Ukraine the status of counter-terrorism. In
particular, such an initiative was made by the leader of the Just
Russia - For Truth party, Sergei Mironov., reminds RIA FAN. The
politician suggested that the operation to protect Donbass could
turn into a “counter-terrorist operation with all the ensuing
consequences.”
Y’all most be smoking some very good stuff !
“Nice thought, but it also brought the remnant of capable Uke troops out of their holes and into a kill-box”
What the Russians don’t understand is that they are facing an entirely new Ukrainian Army.
The last four months Ukraine has been waging a holding action. Behind the lines they have been training several hundred thousand new troops.
These new soldiers are armed with NATO weapons and trained in western tactics.
The very first members of this New Model Army are appearing on the front, and the Russians are crumbling wherever they have been unleashed.
Hmm....
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Update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 12, 2022
- Ukraine has committed what is left of its best troops and equipment to multiple and expensive offensives - both around Kherson and in Kharkov, and rumors of offensives being prepared elsewhere;
- The Kherson offensive has failed, costing Ukraine multiple brigades’ worth of men and equipment with little territorial gain;
- The Kharkov offensive has cost Ukraine a large amount of men and equipment with significant territorial gains but failed to eliminate the Russian forces holding the region;
- Russia’s decision to withdraw from Kharkov conserves men and equipment for fighting later on and to be determined on Russian terms;
- There will be a significant strategic cost for Ukraine’s tactical gains - some of which are already being paid along the line of contact where Ukrainian lines have been weakened as Kiev cobbled together these offensive forces;
- There are significant parallels between this Ukrainian push and Germany’s Ardennes Offensive in 1944;
- Russia is targeting Ukrainian infrastructure including communication towers and power plants for the first time amid its military operations, signalling a possible escalation; “
Gen George Patton DID say, (and I paraphrase) to Eisenhower in a 19 Dec 44 conference at Verdun; when he realized the true extent and objective of the German Ardennes counter-offensive that “Hell, let’s have the guts to let the sons of bitches go all the way to Paris. Then we’ll really cut ’em up and chew ’em up.”
Needless to say, this idea was deemed to be politically unacceptable.
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