Posted on 07/19/2022 7:02:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Experts say the transmission rates of the BA.2.75 variant are showing an exponential increase, particularly in India, where it is competing with BA.5.
As the U.S. battles the rapidly spreading BA.5 omicron subvariant, a new mutant that could compete with the highly contagious strain is on the horizon.
Scientists say the variant – called BA.2.75 – may be able to evade immunity from vaccines and prior infection. The latest mutant has been spotted in several distant states in India and appears to be spreading faster than other variants there. It’s unclear whether it could cause more serious disease than other omicron variants, including the prominent BA.5.
Tufts Medical Center's Dr. Shira Doron, Boston Medical Center's Dr. Sabrina Assoumou and Brigham and Women's Hospital's Dr. Daniel Kuritzkes explained whether we should worry about the new variant during NBC10 Boston's latest "COVID Q&A" discussion.
Experts say the transmission rates of the BA.2.75 variant are showing an exponential increase, particularly in India. It makes up about a quarter of the cases there and seems to be competing with BA.5 as the dominant strain. Some health officials expect cases will continue to grow, but how the subvariant might impact the U.S. remains to be seen.
"We often look to see what happens overseas to try to foreshadow what is going to happen here. These particular subvariants have had very different behaviors," Assoumou said. "There's been a different mix of infection-acquired immunity versus vaccine-acquired immunity, so it's a little hard to know how it's going to behave here in the U.S."
The population in India has a different immunity than those in the U.S., Boston doctors said, because different vaccines were given at various times and different variants circulated at various times. Those variables result in fluctuating levels of infection-induced immunity.
"We cannot assume that what's happening there will happen here, and yet we do have to prepare for surges. We are always now preparing for surges," Doron said. "Variants will emerge that evade immunity from the vaccine and prior infection, and we can't ever quite know exactly what they're going to do to our case rates until we get there."
The highly contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant has taken over as the dominant coronavirus strain in recent weeks and is fueling concerns about a potential summer surge. The threat of the BA.2.75 variant in India underscores the importance of global vaccination, according to Assoumou, who said, "We're not going to be able to get over this pandemic if we don't make sure that everyone, everywhere, is safe."
Moderna recently announced that it is developing two potential booster shots targeting the omicron subvariants, the Wall Street Journal reported, which could be rolled out by the fall. But Doron questioned whether variant-specific vaccines are a sufficient long-term solution, considering a new variant could always be lurking around the corner.
"It's the same story. It could be a problem, and it could not be a problem," Doron said of BA.2.75. "We can watch what a variant or some variant does in another country. We should always prepare for it to do that thing here. You know, it's expect the worst and hope for the best. That's all we can do. It's going to be impossible to predict. And how it behaves in one place may not predict how it behaves in another."
"I agree," Kuritzkes said. "We'll have to watch and see what happens -- whether this new variant really spreads significantly and if so, what it looks like. Right now, there's little we can do other than watching it."
Public health experts have been concerned about the possibility of a summer surge and now Massachusetts COVID wastewater data seems to be backing that up.
Thanks
The only thing that is making sense to me is mankind’s experience with the common cold.
It mutates and is shed to others.
Modern medicine cannot (willfully or not) control or predict it.
To my meager knowledge, it has been categorized as both a corona-virus and a rhino-virus that now seem interchangeable.
Yet, there is no cure.
It mutates too quickly and the variants abound, so we are told.
Your epidemiology background is welcome as I am working from several decades of common sense (and a classic, science training background).
I’m going to start floating new variant names; seems like fun.
1) Stop with this obsession about fear. The virus doesn’t care if someone is afraid or not. If you’re not over 65, you have no need to fear for yourself, at least not in variants we have seen so far. Even if variants expand the death ages, there is no point in fear. The virus doesn’t care.
2) India has no seats in the US House of Representatives and does not care at all about mid-terms.
3) The virus reduced life expectancy in the US about 1.8 years over the last two. The number is now 76.6. If you’re under 65, this is the primary influence on what you might be thinking. If that number keeps falling, retirement is not going to be too attractive, or long.
Experts say the transmission rates of the BA.2.75 variant are showing an exponential increase, particularly in India, where it is competing with BA.5.
= = =
So If I get exposed to both variants, will they fight it out in my body? Maybe kill each other off?
And just how would I know what variant I got sick with? And do those Home Covid TEsts work for all these variants?
It’s not the common cold. Colds don’t reduce societal life expectancy 1.8 years.
:: retirement is not going to be too attractive, or long ::
but, think of the SSA payouts that will be saved with a lowered life-expectancy!
Boomers were ALWAYS the target.
Hey. There IS a mid-term election coming up, after all.
They saw the Monkeypox thing didn’t scare people enough, so they are going back to the COVID well.
>>The Democrats are desperately hoping for a virulent variant to arrive. If this variant actually caused serious disease, they would get it here as soon as possible.
>>
You have not thought this through.
A variant that kills, say, 40% of infected, of all ages, would absolutely be a variant Democrats would NOT want to be in the US.
The reason is cities. Their votes come from cities. Cities have people packed together, amplifying infection rates.
In general the only defense against this thing is Get Away From People. Prior infection doesn’t work long. Vax doesn’t work long. Get Away From People. That works.
The "malaise" component was the most annoying. I'm accustomed to being hyper-focused on my software development tasks. It definitely impacted my productivity.
Thanks.
I didn’t say COVID is/was the common cold.
I did say that my experience at this point tells \me\ we could learn from the common cold; COVID is now acting like such.
I have said from the start [after my bout with it in March 2020] that it is an unplanned-for, extreme incidence of the influenza virus (The Flu).
I have speculated that it may have been manipulated but that it went “wild” by accident.
And that it was “released” too soon yet had the same impact on the elections.
The denizens of the FluBros threads can vouch for that.
:: Monkeypox thing didn’t scare people enough ::
Are you more afraid of Monkeypox or HIV?
If you are, stop putting your ***k in other men’s ***es!
:: Prior infection doesn’t work long. ::
I contest this point.
LOL
The “Gangrenous Testicle Variant”.
The “Oily, Greasy Anal Discharge Variant”.
The “Poison Halitosis Variant”.
The “Green Stinking Phlegm Variant”.
We need to find something scary.
>>:: Prior infection doesn’t work long. ::
I contest this point.
>>
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm
“Among COVID-19–like illness hospitalizations among adults aged ≥18 years whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, the adjusted odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 among unvaccinated adults with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were 5.49-fold higher than the odds among fully vaccinated recipients of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine who had no previous documented infection (95% confidence interval = 2.75–10.99).”
I have an e-mail feed on my phone for his articles. I'm typing this on my laptop, so I couldn't cut/paste links to the article.
C'mon, doc! There's lots we can do. Wear masks. Social distance. Shut down all businesses. Close restaurants. Close churches. One-way aisles at the grocery stores. Keeps kids out of school. Sanitize every surface in sight. Order more ventilators.
Doesn't the doc know anything?
I got a lot of nicotine left over from years of smoking. Will that work? Been 4+ years since I quit. 🤔😅✌
My contest is, apparently, anecdotal.
I recovered in mid-March 2020.
Since then I have not contracted COVID or had any COVID symptoms.
I have been exposed [in close proximity] to both severe and mild symptoms involving affirmed COVID members of my family. Also, the Omicron variant, several times, with no exhibited results.
It seems that my immunity beats the odds.
I’ll take it.
may be able to evade immunity from vaccines Like every other variant.
They should be more careful in what they wish for.
They might think it gives them the power, but a huge number of people are NOT going to fall for the lockdown BS again, and will take it out on those proposing it. Part of that will be total opposition to any hint of laws/rules/enforcement of lockdowns, mandatory masking, remote learning or relaxed voting.
It won't be just no, it will be HELL NO.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.