Russia cuts gas to Poland as U.S., allies to send Ukraine more heavy weapons

National Post ^ | April 27 2022 | Marek Strzelecki and Tsvetelia Tsolova and Pavel Polityuk

[Kevmo]

Ukraine accused Russia of blackmailing Europe over energy in an attempt to break its allies, as fighting heads into a third month without Russia capturing a major city

WARSAW/SOFIA/KYIV — Russia halted gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract on Wednesday, data from the European Union network of gas transmission operators showed, in a deepening of the rift between the West and Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Bulgaria, like Poland a NATO and EU member, said earlier that Russia would also halt supplies of gas to it.

Ukraine accused Russia of blackmailing Europe over energy in an attempt to break its allies, as fighting heads into a third month without Russia capturing a major city.

Poland’s gas supply contract with energy giant Gazprom is for 10.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, and covers about 50% of national consumption.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on “unfriendly” countries to pay for gas imports in roubles, a demand only a few buyers have implemented.

“The ultimate goal of Russia’s leadership is not just to seize the territory of Ukraine, but to dismember the entire center and east of Europe and deal a global blow to democracy,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late on Tuesday.

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[WoofDog123]

i don’t think anyone is worried in the least about the potential fallout (pun intended) a decade or two down the road from successfully crushing russia now. I can only imagine attitudes were equally short-sighted in 1918.

if the powers that be have gone to such effort to brainwash their populations into canceling tschaikovsky etc., they aren’t going to go soft on a war guilt clause.

and no one sees a problem. it worked fine before.....

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

(4) Don’t base your energy policy on the rantings of a mentally ill autistic Swedish girl.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

I’m old enough to remember when President Reagan warned the Euro-weenies about this very possibility.

[Eleutheria5]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!/S

[Cronos]

i don’t think anyone is worried in the least about the potential fallout (pun intended) a decade or two down the road from successfully crushing russia now. I can only imagine attitudes were equally short-sighted in 1918.

That may be true about the USA and the UK and definitely for France and Germany, but Poland has had such debates for years - at the individual level, at the intellectual and think-tank level and at the governmental level

This is not 1917 when Imperial Germany used Lenin to knock Russia out of the war -- and btw, that tactic worked for Imperial Germany. If Germany had won the war, they would have had the border at the Brest-Litovsk line

But to the modern day scenario -

Russia is not "inevitably going to break up" - this was not the case under Yeltsin except for the Caucasus

• Russia north of the Caucasus and until Siberia is more or less one people and wouldn't be split up.
  
  
• However the Caucasus was conquered fairly recently and badly - there isn't much of a sense of being "Russian" there - any more than the Tibetans have a sense of being "Chinese"
  
  
• in the middle region Tatarstan, Khanty, etc. would want some degree of independence in order for their nationalities to survive and not be assimilated
  
  
• In the far east, the Yakuts would want a state and be part of the Turkic group of countries
  
  There would be a far eastern republic around Vladivostok

I suppose you mean what would happen if the nukes get out of hand? I don't know - that's a possibility

And you may mean - what if a bigger bad comes up? I would point out that the USSR was bad, but it took the elements of a secret police, of forced Russification, of a police state from the Tsardom. However in this case, there isn't a case of a bigger bad -- Russia's problem is that they think they are still an empire and they have the same "stab in the back" feeling that Germans had in 1919 -- if you get defeated economically you don't think it was as bad as being bombed and destroyed into submission

[Cronos]

I would note that language is not the only definer of nationalism.

In the 1800s there were many Irish who spoke only english not Irish Gaelic, but they felt Irish.

Similarly here there are many Russian-primary speakers who are Ukrainian.

[Cronos]

People don’t seem to understand that if things really do not go well for Russia in this war, they WILL pull out the long knives. The longer Ukraine holds out, the more this is going to “leave a mark” on Europe and possibly the rest of the world.

But then what do you suggest?

1. Ukraine surrender? -- Putin will then assimilate it
2. Ukraine give up Donetsk and Luhansk? - Putin will take it and after a few years come back for more
3. Ukraine "de-militarizes" - then Russia invades the next day and no Javelins to stop it

[Cronos]

It was Hitler who messed up by grabbing all of Czechoslovakia.

hitler didn't grab all of Czechoslovakia in 1938. He split off Slovakia and he made Czechia a vassal state

But after that he invaded Poland

Appeasing Putin with Crimea didn't work - he will constantly want more.

[Cronos]

Brian The two new Russian language republics could similarly declare their independence.

A few points about this

One. Even before 2014, there wasn't a majority for independence in Dontesk and luhansk

Two. After 2014, large numbers of people left the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's republic to go to Ukraine. So if you ran a poll TODAY in the DPR and LPR you would probably get a majority wanting to join Russia (not independence) -- is that fair if the pro-Ukraine folks were chased out?

three. conversely - in the remaining parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, the pro-Ukrainian folks numbers rose - so a poll THERE would be for Ukraine. Is that fair?

four. Let's say that the DPR and LPR join the Russian's People's Democratic republic, but then what about the area of Kherson and Mariupol?

[Cronos]

BoD But the US IS egging on NATO countries to escalate. Like they’re trying to start WWIII, with other countries paying the price.

as someone who has lived in Poland since 2010, I can tell you that the USA is definitely not egging on Poland or the Baltic states or Czechia or Romania. the people here KNOW what Moscow is capable of -- Poland has been the one shouting since 2008 to the west to stop being beholden to Putin's oil "fix"

How would you say this is being "escalated"

• Economic sanctions to stop the Putin war machine?
• Putting sanctions directly on Putin and his supporters to emphasize that this is HIS (Putin's) doing?
• sending weapons to help the Ukrainians defend their lands?

I oppose a no-fly policy or putting NATO boots on the ground for a self-preservation reason, I live just 50 miles from the border with Ukraine, so any "escalation" that results in war is going to affect me DIRECTLY. I have no intention of moving (just moved here last year from Warsaw) and I will support and do support Ukrainian refugees (we have two families in our house - which we thought was too large for us when we moved in, but hey!) and do support Ukraine for pushing back the invader

This is not about "we will fight until the last Ukrainian" as some put it - but "the Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and loved ones, we will keep their women, children and old people safe and we will have their backs"

[Kevmo]

“the Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and loved ones, we will keep their women, children and old people safe and we will have their backs”
***As the Australians say, good on you. I will pray for you and those 2 families.

[cuban leaf]

I’m pointing out risks. That’s all I’m doing. Fortunate for me I’m not on the government’s payroll and this decision isn’t up to me.

But based on history I believe this risk is real.

[cuban leaf]

Regarding your last sentence, that could be true. And I thought about that when I said it. I’m still developing my viewpoint on this. I consider the Western world to be a giant leadership vacuum, and Putin took advantage of it. I definitely don’t see this as good guys versus bad guys. I believe it’s a lot more nuanced than that and that’s why I’m very much against us getting involved.

[cuban leaf]

Regarding your last sentence, that could be true. And I thought about that when I said it. I’m still developing my viewpoint on this. I consider the Western world to be a giant leadership vacuum, and Putin took advantage of it. I definitely don’t see this as good guys versus bad guys. I believe it’s a lot more nuanced than that and that’s why I’m very much against us getting involved.

[Cronos]

Yes, but I’m asking you your opinion on what you suggest should be done by Ukrainians?

[Cronos]

Zelensky isn’t a good guy, he was a pretty below par President until February 2022.

But it is simple. Putin invaded a neighbouring country to impose his will. He could have claimed dpr and lpr but not, Putin went for everything.

The USA is involved because if Putin got his way a third time (after Georgia, Crimea), he would move against our interests.

But no need for American troops in Ukraine.

[cuban leaf]

Yes, but I’m asking you your opinion on what you suggest should be done by Ukrainians?

---

I don’t know. I don’t live there. I blame the western world and the utter leadership vacuum for getting them here in the first place that I kinda look at the whole thing as “play stupid games, win stupid prizes”. And here we are.

It’s like asking a guy that drove drunk and has just driven off a cliff, “so what do you suggest he does now?” Answer: He dies.

[Cronos]

It's just our duty, nothing more

[Cronos]

But this was not due to the western world doing anything except for Germany buying the Nord stream 1&2 pipelines and cutting their nuclear power stations.

Rather its about the western world not doing much when Russia created frozen conflicts in Moldova, in Georgia and then in the Ukrainian Donbas.

This predated Obama, Trump and Biden.

Russia still thinks of itself as the empire and many see the collapse as a “stab in the back”. The USSR fell due to economic war not military, so the people think this wasn’t real.

It’s like Germany between 1918 and 1945 thinking they hadn’t really lost world war one. Their soldiers were all outside German soil when the generals saw the inevitability of defeat and surrendered. But the people didn’t see that and thought they could have won.

They had to be bombed to their homes to realize that war wasn’t the way.

Similarly today’s Russia thinks it unfair theg are not a superpower, when the reality is that their economy is the size of Italy and far less complex.

Putin tried to make Russia a military superpower and neglected the economy. Think of how powerful thrg could have been if they harnessed the potential of their population

[Elsie]

this one speaks for itself: