Posted on 01/12/2022 7:26:00 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Places with highest daily reported cases per capita
Seven-day average of daily new reported cases per 100,000 residents
Thank you for your work
It is becoming increasingly obvious that Omicron is the pandemic ender. Rapidly accelerating through the population, falling deaths, probably have reached peak velocity...
The only question is when this is over in 4 - 6 weeks, will we follow South Africa and end all restrictions — or will there be an ongoing political play?
Time will tell, but any 1 March, we should be back to complete normal from a scientific stand point.
Joe Biden is not going to do anything, which is good. Blue states would be hesitant to give up their powers they've gained through coronavirus restrictions and that may just force more people to move to red states which we've seen the past two years.
There are some crazy places. Montgomery County, MD (NIH headquarters) is one of them. Most of the country is not like that, fortunately.
It looks like the spike has peaked and has begun to head downward. If so, this is really good news.
Thanks for the updates!
Good news, new cases seem to have peaked in the Northeast.
I hope you’re right but it may be a little too soon to say. Deaths are a trailing indicator as I know you know. But it could be any of or combination of things including vaccines, better treatments, and a less virulent strain all working in our favor.
Unfortunately, daily deaths are pretty much the same they were before vaccines. But infections are triple what they were at the peak in 2020! So I am hopeful that this will be the end of it as you are but with this many new infections it’s just too early imo to say for sure. With 750,000 infections a day it’s going to take several weeks to see if Omicron is less deadly or if the vaccines are preventing deaths from climbing in proportion.
It is an anecdote, but I know of several people tested positive in the last few weeks - I knew very few before Omicron. All of them suffered flu like symptoms but none of them required anything more than at home care, bed rest, fluids. Some are still recovering. All of them are relatively young and otherwise relatively healthy people. I do worry about my elderly relatives right now and hope they avoid the virus.
Interesting how close together those 5 states are.
I think it is wishful thinking to say this is over in 4 to 6 weeks, particularly if you live in a “blue” state. This will peak but who is to stay there won’t be some new “variant” used to stir up the pot again. This doesn’t “end” based on any measurable stat, but when people simply stop complying with restrictions. They are impossible to enforce without 95% compliance (with the government ruthlessly going after the 5% who don’t submit)
DEATHS
2,654 JAN 11 2022
2,048 JAN 11 2021
I don’t see what you guys are seeing. I don’t see a “peak” in the sense that it is behind us yet. It is a peak for sure - new infections are triple what they were at the last peak. But I don’t see in the charts anything looking like a decline in new cases other than what may just be statistical noise.
It may in fact be a peak. Or maybe we aren’t testing enough to know. For sure the greater the number of tests the higher the new case number will be - at least for the short term. But I looked at worldometer numbers and charts this morning, well over 750,000 new cases yesterday. That’s massive compared to what we saw at the peak in 2020.
The celebrations are not only way too early, they are bizarre.
South Africa had 181 deaths today. That’s about 15X their typical pre Omicron totals. And it’s summer there. Pre Omicron they were logging fewer dead counts with much cooler weather. SA doesn’t get so hot they are driven into AC. Pretty hard to conclude anything other than Omicron is NOT more mild.
US death counts are vicious. These 1000+ dead days are heading into month 5. Do you realize what the Excess Death curve is going to look like with 5 solid months of this? And no real sign of it stopping.
Every Wall Street prediction of peak is based on nothing other than some other country with different season/weather, or the shape of last winter, which was a different virus.
No one knows anything other than a huge number of people are getting killed by the virus every day. That is ALL anyone knows. Anything else is pretense. Whistling in the graveyard.
Other assumption is that after everyone is infected, immunity follows. But I don’t think anyone really knows. This doesn’t behave like normal viruses.
Not peaking here yet.
Exactly. Deaths are higher. They should be lower if the program in place was working. And as I said deaths are a trailing indicator. With 750,000 new infections a day at the current rate if the vaccines, weaker variant and new treatment options aren’t helping we will see those daily death numbers climb higher. I hope they don’t but I just think we can’t know yet.
I had thought that maybe the virus had felled the most vulnerable people last year. All those poor people in nursing homes with crap governors and people with other serious ailments who just couldn’t fight off the infection. I don’t know the demographics of the types who are falling victim now. CDC director cited “4 or more co-morbidities” accounting for 75% of deaths, but I am not sure I believe her. These government people love to play with numbers as it suits their agenda.
I got into an argument of sorts with a dear old friend today. Friendly argument over breakfast at I-Hop (I had oatmeal). His gf had covid and was out for about two weeks, just cleared the other day with 2 daily negative tests. I told him the good thing is she is extremely unlikely to catch it again but he argued I was wrong. I know there are some rare cases of re-infection but generally speaking a natural immunity should be able to fight off a second infection - unless a really new mutant variant comes on the scene that is unrecognizable to the memory T cells and B cells and the other facets of the adaptive immune system. If that’s the case then it’s anybody’s guess.
Your assessments are very fair and I think you raise good points. I can tell you anecdotally (yes I will say that!) that what I am seeing on the ground is that there are no CoVID cases in the ICU. Where I am , delta went through in August and I have no desire to every repeat those 21 days — it was as bad as I have ever seen. I do think, however, that when it appears that 50% of Europe will be infected in 2 weeks, and when you see where omicron has blown through, it became absolutely the dominant strain — literally everybody (who tested) had it, and there was no increase in critical illness related to SARS or anything that looked remotely close to SARS.
So if it is this contagious and based on reports omicron gives robust antibodies against previous strains and deaths are down — in know someone else pointed out they are a lagging indicator — dealing with it for six weeks we would see it by now — I am comfortable that omicron proves the laws of epidemiology that mutations become more transmissible and less dangerous until it rips through the population and burns out.
This is clinically what we are seeing — but I do find it curious that it has shifted from LRI to URI. I have a lot of curiosity around that.
Have a good night!
Are you still not seeing a lot make it to ICU?
Check the individual states in the Northeast, NY, NJ and CT for example. Use the seven day running average in Worldometer.
Omicron peaks and drops, according to the Drs in South Africa, like an ice pick. The numbers are lowered today, they’ll now drop like a rock.
At least the chart looks lower today than yesterday
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