Posted on 01/08/2022 12:48:38 PM PST by ImJustAnotherOkie
Whatever the technological promise or pitfalls of electric vehicles, the real challenge lies in getting consumers eager to buy them. And that’s proven to be at least as difficult as making batteries last and building out a comprehensive charging infrastructure. A new report from the big-time, grownup pants Deloitte consulting firm indicates just how big an undertaking that is proving to be.
Deloitte’s touchingly named “2022 Global Automotive Consumer Study” goes into granular detail about the buyer expectations that will drive the automotive market in the coming years. It’s all based on a survey of 26,000 consumers in 25 countries. R&T has been reliably informed one of those countries is the United States, which is still located in North America. The whole report is available at this link as a PDF.
Much of what Deloitte reports is unsurprising. People still vastly prefer personal vehicles over public transportation; are willing to embrace high technology as long as they don’t have to pay for it; that they still want to buy new vehicles in person and not over the internet; and that they’re fine with electric vehicles as long as they’re affordable and at least as good as those relying on internal combustion.
The big insights come with the subject of intentionality. That is what consumers expect to buy next. In the U.S. fully 69 percent of consumers expect their next vehicle to be powered by internal combustion. Another 22 percent will go for some sort of hybrid. But still, amid all this, only about five percent of Americans expect their next vehicle will be a fully-electric, battery-fueled machine.
“Buyers expect their vehicles to be affordable,” explains Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s Automotive Research Leader. “Fully 74 percent of those intending to buy an electric expect their next vehicle to cost less than $50,000. With the average price of a new vehicle already approaching $40,000 that’s a very narrow band for electrics.”
Right now, many of the electrics on the market are what Robinson describes as “halo” products. That’s to say premium vehicles that attract attention and sell at high prices, but aren’t intended to sell in huge volumes to average buyers. Will there be affordable and attractive electrics? Good question.
Governments are driving forward with aggressive plans for converting the vehicle fleet to alternative fuels. What prominently emerges from the Deloitte report is that ambitions are one thing, and reality is something else.
Other countries are more eager for EVs. In South Korea, for example, 23 percent of buyers anticipate next buying an electric. In China it’s 17 percent. In almost all countries, hybrids and plug-in hybrids seem to be gaining traction as alternatives to pure ICEs.
There are plenty of other indications in Deloitte’s report that what lies in front of us is a tumultuous vehicular future. “There are a lot of big, all-in bets being made,” Robinson asserts. “We’re right in the middle of a very messy time.”
“ange limitations aren’t the problem, it’s the multi-hour delay for recharging”
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They are putting up DC fast charging statioms on the interstate network...subsidized of cours. KW cost about double your home cost. But it will give you 150 miles of charge in 15 minutes. That’s getting there for me.
I have an aging Audi A8 that gets 24 mpg and goes like a Covette, but to replace it will cost me 130K. A new Tesla Plaid costs 140k and is quicker with a 300 mile range fully charged. That’s even then with what I have.
Maintenance is low on EVs and cost per mile is lower for fuel until the government wakes up to the loss of deisel and gas tax revenue.
Most people like me have multiple vegicles so having an EV is starting to make sense. My Jeep SRT will last until I’m gone anyway.
You kind of forgot the entire electrical distribution system.
It’s kind of important.
Norway is about the size of Montana and most population lives along the coasts. Lots of ferry travel between coastal cities. Not a lot cross country travel required.
I simply do not want an EV because it is an expensive step backwards for me. The premise of why governments are requiring them is based on a Marxist fantasy - globull warming.
The only positive I have identified for an EV is the instant torque. Cost of refueling with gasoline vs electricity when all costs are included is not a positive for EV - maybe a push - but in no way creates an incentive for me.
The negatives are many and significant.
I do not like like taking steps backwards like we have been forced to do multiple times by the Watermelon (green on the outside all red on the inside) folks. Those include saving water by poorly doing the laundry while taking 3x as longer. Same with the dishwasher. Low flow toilets and showers. Florescent lights. These have been forced on us, do a poor job, are inefficient wasting time and lowering productivity, create extra unaccounted for costs. EVs are to me in this same vein.
I don’t want one, and will work very hard to keep my ICE powered cars until I don’t need a car anymore or until the EV actually becomes a step forward, which it is not today.
Let’s assume for a moment that there is a niche in the transportation mix for EV’s. So ,let the market determine how big that is. No subsidies, no government mandates. EV’s and ICE’s have to stand on their own merits. Let the customer make the choice.
Yep; just one of many fudge factors.
I just anticipate some wailing and teeth-gnashing if (when?) they do have major grid problems.
“....No, I do not in any circumstances would I buy an electric vehicle,...”
Same here. Among other reasons is the fact the whole EV push is based on the global warming hoax.
Id love an electric car if there was a break-thru in electric power. Batteries in their current form don’t cut it; too heavy and too long to charge. Maybe some future tech like figuring out how to tap into quantum vacuum energy.
Don’t tell GM who is about to go all electric.
Actually my guess is that EV’s will be forced on us like vaccine mandates. It is so easy to revoke and control transportation of citizen with EV’s. In fact much of it will be self imposing due to limitations.
some companies like GM are essentially going “all in” on government subsidies to finance their development mistakes.
Not just NO, but Hell NO!
You have the right of that. That’s why I have 6.0 Yukon XL Denali. It’s a towing beast.
I have had an EV for six years. You are on the right track here. For daily commuting it is much more convenient to simply plug in at home rather than get gas at a station. Takes about 3 seconds every other night to plug in and 3 seconds to unplug and put back on the holder. I actually save time vs. a gas car.
Range obsession is also unfortunate as it is leading to wasted expense and weight in an effort to keep increasing range. One of my other ICE cars is for trips, but the EV has been a phenomenal daily commute car.
In Florida, we occasionally evacuate from hurricanes.
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Or trying to go to the beach during tourist season…
LOL. True.
I'm looking at getting the F-150 Lightning (I must have a pickup). It's purported to get 2 miles per kWh. I'm going to assume 85% to 90% of that because: A) no gas car or EV gets the advertised mpg or miles per kWh (I hate mpge, it's such a bogus non-stat), you do good to get about 90% of the advertised mileage. B) There's an efficiency loss when going from A/C power (from your house) to D/C (to charge the EV battery). At least, my home solar chargers get about 97% efficiency. That's good, IMHO, but if that's about a 5% loss for converting A/C to D/C combined with about a 5% to 10% loss of true mileage per energy (be it kWh or gas). Then we're talking about 85% miles per kWh of what the advertised efficiency is. So instead of me getting 2 miles per kWh I might get 1.8 miles per kWh or so.
Does that sound reasonable?
Yeah. Is a Ford Lightning going to be able to haul four guys and all their gear a thousand miles to Montana for their annual hunting trip in a timely manner? Possibly pulling a trailer as well? And how are they going to recharge it when they might be 30 miles from the nearest electrical outlet?
Maybe it can handle the job, I don’t know, but if they’re going to run $80-90,000 I’m not anxious to find out. What would the payment be on that? $800+ a month for ten years just for the base model?
I have an aging Audi A8 that gets 24 mpg and goes like a Covette, but to replace it will cost me 130K. A new Tesla Plaid costs 140k and is quicker with a 300 mile range fully charged. That’s even then with what I have.
You make a solid argument — for the luxury sport market segment. Most of us aren’t there.
My 2007 f150 is a basket case but it gets me and the dogs around.Haha, that's precisely me! (same year) I call it the dog carrier. My Ford dealer has been trying to buy it back from me ever since Cash for Clunkers.
There is a lot here. I have a much smaller car than an F150 of course. Lifetime I have averaged about 4.6 miles/kWh. I would say that is primarily up to how you drive it as well. My intuition is to expect about 1.8 - 1.9 on the EV F150.
I do hope they get better at battery replacement options after 5 years. I have no problem with spending $5k - $7K on a replacement every 5 -7 years. I look at it like deferred fuel charges. The overnight rates you can sign up for for charging are extremely low.
The lack of maintenance needed is amazing. No oil changes, brakes last forever. The motors seem to last forever with very few parts.
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