Posted on 01/08/2022 12:48:38 PM PST by ImJustAnotherOkie
Whatever the technological promise or pitfalls of electric vehicles, the real challenge lies in getting consumers eager to buy them. And that’s proven to be at least as difficult as making batteries last and building out a comprehensive charging infrastructure. A new report from the big-time, grownup pants Deloitte consulting firm indicates just how big an undertaking that is proving to be.
Deloitte’s touchingly named “2022 Global Automotive Consumer Study” goes into granular detail about the buyer expectations that will drive the automotive market in the coming years. It’s all based on a survey of 26,000 consumers in 25 countries. R&T has been reliably informed one of those countries is the United States, which is still located in North America. The whole report is available at this link as a PDF.
Much of what Deloitte reports is unsurprising. People still vastly prefer personal vehicles over public transportation; are willing to embrace high technology as long as they don’t have to pay for it; that they still want to buy new vehicles in person and not over the internet; and that they’re fine with electric vehicles as long as they’re affordable and at least as good as those relying on internal combustion.
The big insights come with the subject of intentionality. That is what consumers expect to buy next. In the U.S. fully 69 percent of consumers expect their next vehicle to be powered by internal combustion. Another 22 percent will go for some sort of hybrid. But still, amid all this, only about five percent of Americans expect their next vehicle will be a fully-electric, battery-fueled machine.
“Buyers expect their vehicles to be affordable,” explains Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s Automotive Research Leader. “Fully 74 percent of those intending to buy an electric expect their next vehicle to cost less than $50,000. With the average price of a new vehicle already approaching $40,000 that’s a very narrow band for electrics.”
Right now, many of the electrics on the market are what Robinson describes as “halo” products. That’s to say premium vehicles that attract attention and sell at high prices, but aren’t intended to sell in huge volumes to average buyers. Will there be affordable and attractive electrics? Good question.
Governments are driving forward with aggressive plans for converting the vehicle fleet to alternative fuels. What prominently emerges from the Deloitte report is that ambitions are one thing, and reality is something else.
Other countries are more eager for EVs. In South Korea, for example, 23 percent of buyers anticipate next buying an electric. In China it’s 17 percent. In almost all countries, hybrids and plug-in hybrids seem to be gaining traction as alternatives to pure ICEs.
There are plenty of other indications in Deloitte’s report that what lies in front of us is a tumultuous vehicular future. “There are a lot of big, all-in bets being made,” Robinson asserts. “We’re right in the middle of a very messy time.”
Raised my family in small town America farm country. Loved it. Moved many times after kids on their own...lived both city and country. Learned I like very small cities with rural access less than five miles......works for me.
Yep. That’s them all right.
Local delivery and towing are perfect. The infrastructure for mere mortals is a completely different matter.
My neighbor’s Tesla has been down for months and months with a main battery problem. A Tesla tech came by in a reliable Ford Van to fix it. It’s still in the driveway with part of the front fascia duct taped up from an accident.
Under the dash there is a 12v regular car battery. They don’t like to sit unused. You have to take about 10 trim pieces in the frunk out to access it. I watched him do it. Pretty funny.
I’ve still got a couple dozen 100 Watters from years ago
I like the new leds in certain places, but the 100 waters are still best for heat in my crawl space or under the hood of a vehicle on a sub zero night
I thought it was pretty big news too.
🙋🏻♂️⚡️ 🚘
EV demand far exceeds supply.
“Forcing technology on us”
Tesla sold 900k cars last year and had orders for 200k more but could not build them due to supply chain issues.
Ford has 200k pre orders for it’s F150 Lightning and that keeps growing.
No one is being forced to buy electrics, they want them.
“Especially if everybody will be charging at the same time.”
That is exactly the problem. I can see fights breaking out over who gets to charge their cars.
Biden caused lithium prices to rise seven-fold since his election:
https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=lb&d=0
The Biden seven-fold lithium price rise impacts electric vehicle buyers world-wide, not just in the USA.
Rechargeable power tools with lithium batteries have shot up in price.
Electric cars work and depreciate correctly in edge situations much like a Smart Car or well cared for 1973 VW Bug. Under ideal circamstances we are talking 10 to 30 cents a mile to 120k miles.
Unless the owner also owns a solar pannel array of 700 square feet it also is not really a game changer for anyone economically vs a very light city car as seen in India were crash worthyness is not a factor.
Base model Current EV Sweet Spot ($3000 / year)
50 miles or less a day, in a climate without many weather events that need a heater to keep the battery or the occupants warm for 8-24 hours while road crews catch up.
Base model Current EV Political or Personal Statement Sweet Spot ($6000 - 12000 / year)
150 miles or less a day, in a climate without many weather events that need a heater to keep the battery or the occupants warm for 8-24 hours while road crews catch up.
You can get the same net energy savings from a 40mph max speed cart using a low end motorcycle engine like a Tata Nano with about 10% of the sunk cost of gaining the utility.
The Model S at the proper deprecation rate is just a 4 seat nicer form of the Tata Nano utility. The Nano just admits it is a car for one person to go 25 miles a day and tossed after 3-9 years. A Model S driven 25 miles a day depreciates correctly for a 12 year life, drive it 100 miles a day, 20k miles per year, and at 6 years it worth is only the recyclable value. A 120k mile ford F150 at 6 years old is currently worth a third to half of its sticker, an 120k electric car is a source for parts other than a battery.
Exactly so, when battery storage becomes an order of magnitude better and cheaper than it's current state then everything will go electric/solar.
It's nonsense except for limited applications until then.
i.e. solar is great for a remote off-grid cabin, EV's are great in congested inner-city settings to reduce smog.
It will be fun to watch them when they realize their car is worthless once the batteries die.
I agree to a point. If the EV is mainly for trips I'd be 100% with you. But if 95% or more of the driving is for local use, perhaps we need to take into account that an EV has no 15-minute gas stops for local use. And that happens much more frequently that refuel stops for trips (if 95% or more of your driving is for local use).
So, yes, if you take an EV on long trips a "refuel" stop becomes 45 minutes. But at the same time there are zero weekly or bi-weekly refuel stops for normal commute type driving (because you charge up at home with a 30-second hook up when you get home, then a 30-second disconnect when you leave the next morning).
At least, that's one of the things I'm looking at on maybe getting an EV.
Most people have been saying for years that they like modern ICE cars and trucks.
And that electric is a step down in capability and cost/benefit.
And they only way they are going to change is if they are forced to do so.
That makes for very, very bad politics.
And trillions of dollars in lost opportunity. Trillions.
Pull all electric car subsidies now. Let the market decide their fate.
“Not interested in an electric car.....I like stability and electric companies are always going down in storms and blackouts. These charge stations will as well.”
Also, what kind of backup power will there be? I have an all house 36 KW setup that cost about $29,000. No way even that could power a charger capable of fueling an EV. If you’re looking at a portable generator, you’re not looking at much more than 12 HP, nothing but a pop gun when you need a .308.
Sure “everybody” 70+k
I’ve purchased my last two cars from the same salesman. I’ve told him that if all he can offer is electric vehicle. He told me that most of his customers have told him the same thing.
BTW, I keep getting surveys from GM on what I want in my next vehicle. The second question defines an electric vehicle and then starts asking me if I would consider a vehicle as defined. My choices are from 10 (I really want one) to 1 (no way in Hell). When I answer that No, I do not in any circumstances would I buy an electric vehicle, the survey thanks me and tells me that I don’t fit the profile for the survey.
It's a skewed comparison. Lots of gov't mandates against ICE and for EV in Asia, especially China. ICE vehicles are actually forbidden in many city downtowns and in some toll lanes. Plus excessive licensing fees for ICE vehicles.
In Norway, the market share for Electric Vehicles is ALREADY a massive 80% of all cars sold. Top EV seller in Norway is of course Tesla, where Musk is pretty popular.
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