Posted on 01/08/2022 12:48:38 PM PST by ImJustAnotherOkie
Whatever the technological promise or pitfalls of electric vehicles, the real challenge lies in getting consumers eager to buy them. And that’s proven to be at least as difficult as making batteries last and building out a comprehensive charging infrastructure. A new report from the big-time, grownup pants Deloitte consulting firm indicates just how big an undertaking that is proving to be.
Deloitte’s touchingly named “2022 Global Automotive Consumer Study” goes into granular detail about the buyer expectations that will drive the automotive market in the coming years. It’s all based on a survey of 26,000 consumers in 25 countries. R&T has been reliably informed one of those countries is the United States, which is still located in North America. The whole report is available at this link as a PDF.
Much of what Deloitte reports is unsurprising. People still vastly prefer personal vehicles over public transportation; are willing to embrace high technology as long as they don’t have to pay for it; that they still want to buy new vehicles in person and not over the internet; and that they’re fine with electric vehicles as long as they’re affordable and at least as good as those relying on internal combustion.
The big insights come with the subject of intentionality. That is what consumers expect to buy next. In the U.S. fully 69 percent of consumers expect their next vehicle to be powered by internal combustion. Another 22 percent will go for some sort of hybrid. But still, amid all this, only about five percent of Americans expect their next vehicle will be a fully-electric, battery-fueled machine.
“Buyers expect their vehicles to be affordable,” explains Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s Automotive Research Leader. “Fully 74 percent of those intending to buy an electric expect their next vehicle to cost less than $50,000. With the average price of a new vehicle already approaching $40,000 that’s a very narrow band for electrics.”
Right now, many of the electrics on the market are what Robinson describes as “halo” products. That’s to say premium vehicles that attract attention and sell at high prices, but aren’t intended to sell in huge volumes to average buyers. Will there be affordable and attractive electrics? Good question.
Governments are driving forward with aggressive plans for converting the vehicle fleet to alternative fuels. What prominently emerges from the Deloitte report is that ambitions are one thing, and reality is something else.
Other countries are more eager for EVs. In South Korea, for example, 23 percent of buyers anticipate next buying an electric. In China it’s 17 percent. In almost all countries, hybrids and plug-in hybrids seem to be gaining traction as alternatives to pure ICEs.
There are plenty of other indications in Deloitte’s report that what lies in front of us is a tumultuous vehicular future. “There are a lot of big, all-in bets being made,” Robinson asserts. “We’re right in the middle of a very messy time.”
More than 20% of Norway's population lives in the Oslo metro area.
Electric vehicles are ideally suited for densely populated urban areas where the average "suburb" has a population that is comparable to one of NYC's outer boroughs.
Interestingly, I believe the auto industry is looking to move heavily into electric vehicles for one simple reason: They expect to be selling far more cars in Asia than in the U.S. over the next 25-30 years.
I’m perfectly willing to concede that electrics are a reasonable choice for particular individuals depending on their driving needs, but if one is making comparisons, I’d take issue with the “no 15-minute gas stops for local use.”
I drive a Kia hybrid that gets 40 mpg under optimal conditions, with a 17 gallon tank - it’s not uncommon for me to drive up to a pump when a song has just started on my radio, and to pull out with a full tank as that same song concludes - so that’s about 3 minutes given the usual classic rock crap I listen to.
Who to believe? The Reuters article below says 65 percent. And the government is distorting the market by taxing gasoline cars and “exempting” battery cars . . . they’d better pray in Norway that their grid is never overloaded and/or goes down.
If I had one car (if I was single) I'd consider an EV. But again, that's only if I was hardly taking trips. That's me making life nicer for what I do plenty of (driving locally), even if it's at a small cost for the things I do rarely (driving on trips).
If I was retired and single (ie if my wife died and I became a widower) I'd probably be all about a gas car for the many long trips I'd be making visiting grandkids (but less local driving than during my working years).
In software design we sometimes refer to this approach as "a 90% solution". If it's infeasible to make a one-size-fits-all system we sometimes make sure the software is super efficient for what the user(s) normally use it for even if that means making it a little tedious for the features the user(s) rarely use. For example, since there's only so much space on the screen (be it a smartphone app or a webpage used mainly by laptop users) we'd make the most common features front and center with buttons, and put the least common features within menus or a configuration screen. So we have to pick which features would take the most prime real estate on the main screen to make life easier for the user 90% of the time. The whole strawman argument ("but I found one scenario that this would be bad for") is usually not good logic to use when making large decisions.
The real problem is getting the huge amount of grid power needed for high-speed charging to every corner gas station, rest stop, coffee shop, etc.
To make this work we'd need about 10x the amount of power delivered - ie. a gas station with 400amp service now needs a 4000amp service.
E=MC², period.
Reuters is correct. Plug ins ( that is EV’S plus hybrids) are over 80%.
Just EV’S are at 65% and fast rising.
But when Ford announced last year that they plan to make an EV F-150 for $40K to $50K (230-mile or 300-mile, but that's without adding all the luxuries), I did the math and thought, "for the first time in decades I might buy a new car". Since my wife's retired and does some trips without me to visit our "kids" and grandkids, she says she'll keep driving a gas car.
EVs, shutting down fossil fuel and nuke plants, CRT, wokeness, censorship of Trumpsters, imprisonment of Trumpsters, covid shutdowns, inflation and open borders are all aspects of the rat plan to destroy the middleclass and replace it with a police state.
They can’t keep semiconductor factories going in China, and the supply chains are crumbling around the world. Forget electric cars, we may have a problem building new IC vehicles in the near future.
Never mind “going down in storms and blackouts”, in CA they were TAKEN DOWN to combat the wildfires - so some people could watch their home AND dead car burn...
“Electric cars have their uses, but mandating them for everything is like using a square peg in a round hole.”
True, however they are going to force them on the public indirectly, not through a direct mandate. Here’s the plan
1). Drive up the price of fossil fuel through taxation, elimination of exploration in the US, heavy regulation of the fossil fuel producers.
2). Increase the auto maker CAFE standards to impossible to meet level but allow the manufacturers “credits” agains the CAFE standard for every electric vehicle sold. Essentially the manufacturers will have to limit the number of fossil fueled vehicles produced and replace them with electric vehicles which will require significant rebates and incentives to move. They will fund the rebates and incentives for the electric vehicles with price increases on fossil fuel vehicles.
3). Government subsides and tax credits for electric car purchase.
4). Encourage states and localities to increase registration fees and taxes on fossil fuel vehicles.
5). Encourage states and local governments to limit the use of fossil fuel vehicles to specific roads and times. For example during rush hours in urban areas prohibit fossil fuel vehicles from using streets and roads. Only electric vehicles, public transportation and bicycles allowed on the roads.
In Florida, we occasionally evacuate from hurricanes.
Imagine tens of thousands of EVs stranded in the Fl heat.
No thanks.
Not. At. Gunpoint.
So, how does roadside service charge an EV whose battery is out of juice on the highway? Do they bring a charger to them?
When you run out of gas, they will deliver some gas to your vehicle.
Was just curious.
Wait for the Vaccinated persons parking spaces !!
You won’t be able to pump gas either.
Shhh...
“Does Anyone Want an Electric Car? Does Anyone Want an Electric Car? Does Anyone Want an Electric Car? Deloitte’s new report sees a messy future. Bueler, Bueller?”
Count me very skeptical too. It's nigh impossible. Wait till reports come in from the recent i-95 disaster.
If I owned GM stock I'd demand CEO Barra explain coming battery technology, and power generation. How soon ? How much ? They're screwed on all fronts: Generation, storage, and distribution. Forgot: evironmental issues (toxic), convenience (recharge times)
Someday, perhaps...in 15 to 20 years....and that's only if Trump, DeSantis, R congresscritters continue subsidies. If they end, so will EV.
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