Posted on 12/31/2021 12:56:28 PM PST by Capt. Tom
This was finally the year that cruise lines began sailing en masse again, but the journey has been more Gilligan's Island than Love Boat. The New Year is also already starting on the wrong foot with a new sea storm moving in as fresh COVID-19 case counts hit all-time highs.
It's not a very bon voyage. The hardest hit of the travel industries was hoping to end the year with an exclamation point. Instead we find ourselves heading into 2022 with another question mark.
Rough waters It's taken a long time for the cruising industry to start up again in this country. Now Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian are facing another wave of passenger cancellations and a potentially longer itinerary on the way to eventual profitability.
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If 2021 was a bad year for cruise line investors -- despite the arrival of passengers on the gangplank -- it has to be hard to be optimistic about how 2022 will play out. Some cruising fans who don't have a problem accepting the COVID-19 risks inherent in a sailing may hold off if they know that destinations can be nixed during a trip.
Things don't have to end badly. We are seeing COVID-19 outbreaks on a lot of ships given the highly contagious nature of the omicron variant, but we're also generally seeing fewer passenger fatalities and prolonged recoveries. It's a sign that the safety protocols being carried out by the ships are working to a certain extent. There's also hope that this fifth surge for the virus could be closer to the COVID-19 finish line, but we've seen how past recovery predictions have fallen flat.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
I visited the former East Germany and Soviet Eastern Europe a couple times, and have lived in China.
What I learned in those places is that literally everything is political.
Forget about their “business model” - the question to ask yourself now in the USA is - are they politically-correct, and will government allow it?
“but we’re also generally seeing fewer passenger fatalities”
The only on I heard of was the guy that went over the side
Can investors trust cruise line stocks?
Not if Fauci and FJB can help it!
The Trump Administration was sympathetic to the cruise industry, but this Biden Group is hostile to them.
That's why I believe the the cruise lines troubles are going to continue in 2022. -Tom
I wouldn’t invest in cruise line stocks per se. But then I don’t generally invest in individual stocks (with some exceptions) but rather invest in mutual funds.
Leisure mutual funds will include cruise lines but a lot of other stuff. They took a dive during early days of covid then clawed back up a bit. Now might be a good time to buy some for a long term investor if so inclined. There is still some pent-up demand I suppose given all the continual covid press.
Do you know if it is just the US cruise lines or is the rest of the world as bad?
I have family that just returned from a cruise. They all seem OK so far, God bless them. They are quite elderly (most of them, but some kids and grandkids tagged along), but said they had a good time.
They got a great deal. $800 for the week, free upgraded cabins, all you can eat and drink too which I thought was unheard of. My uncle even won $200 in a stupid slot machine! (He didn’t tell me how much he put into it).
Cruise liners are probably a good investment if you’re willing to rock with the ebbs and flows. Covid will rock them but they won’t sink. Of course, shareholders may get wiped out if they have to file bankruptcy. So this is NOT investment advice.
Whether you can “trust” them...meaning, plop your money down early January and let that money sit there in the form of shares for some unspecified time without trying to time or trade the shares, is an open question. I can assure you that as trading vehicles, they run hot & cold as virus news gets bleak and then relaxes.
Although I do not like them much, there should be little question that if you are willing to buy them at times of maximum pessimism, there will come a day when CV-whatever restrictions become relaxed and passenger traffic and thus revs will soar. How long that might take is unknowable.
Additionally, one can also reasonably surmise that having performed poorly during the last two years, they have been tossed out for tax-loss harvesting and various hopes will again reflate them, some, in the coming year. One of the best times to buy beaten down stocks is in effect 12/31. Because anyone who’s gonna sell has sold. I remember very well, I think it was the year of the BP oil well blowout in the Gulf. RIG (Transocean Offshore) had a really crappy year, and at end Dec that year, was trading at about 14. By March of the next year, it was back at 40ish.
What good would receivership do? The market for used cruise ships is pretty limited. If the line fold, the banks loses everything.
This is a case where the creditors might be better off extending more credit.
If you know Fauxi personally and can make the same stock purchases he does then you should be golden.
It appears that the cruise lines are having covid outbreaks and port restrictions all over the world.
The big 3 cruise lines, CARNIVAL-ROYAL CAIBBEAN-NORWEGIAN make most of their money operating out of our country. -Tom
” are having covid outbreaks “
A few asymptomatic cases is not an outbreak.
I have carnival cruise stock that I bought for 12 dollars at the beginning of the pandemic. It’s at 20 right now. I’m going to watch in January where it goes. I do not want to sell in 2021 for tax reasons. 2022 will be a better tax reason to sell.
“this Biden Group is hostile to them.”
Absolutely. Fossil fuel guzzlers must be eradicated.
I wish that some day soon we’ll be able to cruise again like the good ol’ days, but I’m not hopeful.
Things have changed too much, even the new ships have changed.
And don't forget; our world is going to change also. -Tom
“Things have changed too much, even the new ships have changed.
“And don’t forget; our world is going to change also.”
Yes. Sadly, the last two years has bred a whole new subculture of whining, cowering, nervous Nellies. Like all libs — and there are some on this site — they’ll make unreasonable demands from us free people.
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