Posted on 11/05/2021 1:26:36 PM PDT by setter
I remember when it crashed down into the 7000's back in 2009 the pundits swore it would take 30 years to get back to it's 2008 level because massive amounts of people got burnt and they would never get back into the market.
So much for that.
Pfft. I remember when the Dow at 800 was supposed to a good year. Means nothing with inflation. You still lose.
Do you mean that we CAN'T hyperinflate ourselves into fabulous prosperity???
Curses, foiled again!!!!
Guess I'll have to go back to my old job of making bricks without straw... drat.
My dad was a insurance broker. I took over his clients. I have some people making 5,6 and 8% on their annuities. They took them out in the
late 70’s and early 1980’s when they were paying 12-14% interest and the insurance co’s had either 5, 6 or 8 % min guaranteed rate
I only have a few left most have died in the last few years
``> I think we will have a 2000-3000 correction this year then 40,000 by end of 2022.
And you may be right.
My expectation is rocky advance until Feb 2022 and then a huge correction.
And I could be wrong (It happened once in the 80’s).
An excellent chart of forgotten knowledge
Fake money printed on Government presses.
I would rather have a green box with genuine USA currency
Equities are the only real protection in inflation...gold and land maybe.
Thing is right now interest rates are not climbing so much. Probably wont with our debt like it is.
If I ever see 20% bonds again im selling the farm and buying all i can get, again. Made out like a bandit in 84.
No one can predict the stock market. The smart proven play to wealth is to dollar cost average 20% or so of your income into a diverse mix of mutual funds over decades and leave it alone. Simple strategy but many won’t save and resort to speculation and gambling
The Dow is as much a marketing tool as anything. The Dow is also cost weighted, a little company can influence out of proportion. Also, the Dow does not have the same components now that it did even a few years ago.
It isnt meaningless but you cant do the Dow if you arent all in an index fund.
“I think we will have a 2000-3000 correction this year then 40,000 by end of 2022.”
I don’t think the Fed money-printing machine has enough gas to hit 40,000, but I’ll bet you $10 that Bitcoin hits $75,000 by the end of 2022. And another $10 that the DOW never hits 40,000
That’s two bets for a total of $20. And if I win, you have to make a recording of you singing (in piercing falsetto with a tuba accompaniment) In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida by Iron Butterfly (the 17 minute version) and post it on FR.
Deal?
2021 is nothing like the 70s. The whole decade of the 70s was pretty much flat.
Exactly what I said.
Auto dealerships with no inventory for months, empty store shelves, thousands of small businesses shuttered, inflation/rising fuel prices, supply chain issues, “not so” federal reserve tapering, interest rate increases on the horizon, employee “vaccine mandate” terminations, slowdown in the commie economy...you get the point.
All this and more will drag on corporate earnings, consumer spending. The federal reserve pulling support from the markets will reveal the true state of the economy in coming months.
Not to mention the last correction being March 2020 was very brief because of the lockdowns, we are loooong overdue for a bear market correction of 20% or more.
When the markets are rising despite news like the above, keep your eyes peeled. Before any correction, those institutions will talk the markets up, encourage investors to invest, throw caution to the wind...then...POP!
You’re right...
Yes. San Francisco.
Real value. The city had tax value about the same as our sell price.
“Auto dealerships with no inventory for months, empty store shelves, thousands of small businesses shuttered”
Hasbro toys sold something like 30-40% less toys last quarter but made a near record profit because the prices of the toys skyrocketed and they have less workers.
I have purchased calls on the SPXS (triple bear) and puts on the SPXL (triple bull) for January. QQQ Puts for both March and June, and SPY Puts for June.
My positions are down from when I bought them (60% for January, 25% for March) except for my June positions which are flat or up.
I may end up rolling my January positions to June and taking a loss as I’m up overall for the year and could take the hit and still be positive in the account. The downturn will come, just all depends on the timing so looking to give myself more range.
Beyond that I’m still holding my high dividend stock, Palantir, and DWAC (which was a big boost for me I bought on a lark right before it took off). I’ve dropped a lot of small positions in recommended smaller “growth” stocks most of which I picked up in May.
oh and that’s just what I’m doing in my small stock trading account - all the rest of my IRA/401/other stock account doesn’t get traded and is basically indexed based...though I did ask for a small shift in July for the other stock account to focus more on materials/real estate due to the continued expectation of inflation....that’s what did best in the high inflation 70s/80s from my research.
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