Posted on 02/16/2021 6:01:16 AM PST by bert
What will be the results of a Pelosi/Biden government?
Many think there will be inflation. Milton Friedman taught us that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” The $2Trillion Covid relief plus the !5% minimum wage plus the forgiveness of college loans all pump money into the economy.
Those actions are the very definition of monetary phenomena.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps us informed on the inflation rate but fails in one respect. The inflation information provided leaves out food. So, in the era of Pelosi/Biden induced inflation, bert has developed a basket of 20 common food products and will track prices and compute the inflation rate on the basket total and each individual item at a one month interval.
The reason given for excluding food in the BEA inflation figure is because there are so many variables that effect prices that monetary inflation gets lost in the shuffle. So, there will be no attempt to correct for other variables.
One we know that is already happening is China. China is in terrible food shape. Crop failure, massive flooding, swine disease and poor management of stock piles have forced China to import phenomenally large quantities of soy beans and corn. Brazil is sold out of soy beans. American farmers will pick up all he slack. So, there will be a large China induced food price inflation.
Being bert and being conservative, I choose to ignore China and blame all the food price increases on Pelosi/Biden
The first monthly food inflation presentation is posted below. There is no inflation noted for February
Will it happen? As President Trump was fond of saying……..We’ll see
For the past couple of years I have noticed that when they raised prices, it was in 5c and 10c increments. Since last year, they don't raise prices often, but when they do, it's in 30c or more increments, no matter the base price.
A year ago, a two-pound tub of their cole slaw was $2.78, of a sudden it went to $3.48 and yesterday it was $3.78. Tuna fish can sizes now resemble those of cat food. Some toilet paper rolls have shrunk an inch or more in width and two-ply is closer to 1 1/2 ply.
Everything that moves by truck (that’s almost everything) will cost more to ship due to skyrocketing fuel prices. The stores are not going to eat that extra cost.
Grocery prices rose by 3.5% during 2020, the largest increase since prices rose 4.8% in 2011, said the USDA on Monday. Beef led the parade of pandemic price increases, up by 9.6% for the year, followed by pork, up 6.3%, and poultry, up by 5.6%.
“Only the price of fresh fruits declined (0.8%), while all other food categories increased in price,” said the monthly Food Price Outlook written by USDA economists. Grocery prices are forecast to rise by a modest 1.5% this year. The long-term average is a 2% increase annually; food prices usually track the overall U.S. inflation rate. -----------------------------------------------
And from https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/
The below table shows the percent increase or decrease in food prices on an annual basis by month and calendar year. Since figures below are 12-month periods, look to the December column to find the over change in food prices by calendar year. The last column, "Ave," shows the average rate of increase or decrease in food prices by year.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 2014 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| 2015 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 2016 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 2018 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 2019 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 2020 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| 2021 | 3.8 |
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Food and beverages in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted. CPI-All Urban Consumers.
Nope - the ones I bought at Publix were store brand - yellow container 18 count ex-lrge eggs. $4.09
I checked organic eggs online and got this - organic 18 count :$6.59 a carton.
Organic Valley, Organic Free-Range Medium Brown Eggs - 18 ct
Price: $6.59
I would advise that if war ever breaks out with China or Iran, pray and head to the market that day with a pick up.
Stihl is the best. Hasqvarna a close second.
Some say you should get a ripping chain for the mill but I cut a lot of sweet gum, which can have a grain running in different directions (and is more likely to twist when drying) so the regular chain is better. I haven’t had much warping at all on this wood so it’s not always true.
Beware of logs lying on the ground. Make sure there’s no rot.
Alaska milling is harder work than using a band saw, IMHO, but cheaper. You just don’t want to put in a lot of effort only to find soft rot halfway through your milling process. And yes, that has happened to me.
Best thing you can do is cull some of those hardest logs now and put them in a dry place with a tarp or under roof cover. Some logs can remain good for decades that way.
I had a ton of extra gravel and crush and run so I smoothed it out and built a roofed curing rack and roof. 6 upright logs in holes and a framed, tin paneled roof over the rocks worked like a charm.
If you see mushrooms growing on the logs, those are probably already rotted as the mushroom is the sexual organ of the fungus and comes out later in its lifespan. It’s already got into the log.
That’s expensive. I like Publix, but I just can’t bring myself to pay 20% or more. In what area do live just out of curiosity?
Regarding a source:
The source for the prices is my neighborhood Food City on line store. All items can be ordered on line for curbside pick up and the prices as those in the store.
The prices are local, for my zip code. For the purpose of inflated or increasing prices, the localness makes no difference in that the various locality variance factors from month to month do not apply.
Thanks for your input. I can track local vs national price change for the basket
what an idea! Bert, since the oligarchy has now made America a client state of China, expect sudden jumps in prices ofr all sorets of goods, then services. Our national debt is such that we are a borrowing nation and now a client state.Inflation is the usual disease that brings down such nations ... look at South America for clues.
Florida. And this is a new increase. It’s not what I paid for eggs at Publix two weeks ago - I would have noticed.
I’m in Alabama. The price of those eggs is a good example of why, despite my best intensions, I can’t boycott Walmart. $1.95 for a dozen and a half eggs plus they’ll load them in my car in about 5-10 minutes.
I have a Granberg Mark IV Alaska mill that I’ve been using with my Stihl MS-461. It takes a little getting used to but once you get the hang of it it’s awesome.
My only hangup so far is that if I want to use it for near furniture grade board I have to store it flat, under weight which I am fortunate enough to be able to do indoors and then I only have a planer that will accommodate up to 12” wide.
I may need to get a planer or maybe a jointer. I have a LOT of nice wood here, both on the ground and still standing. And thanks to our brand new garage building, we even have room for a kiln drier. It could literally be a retirement side gig for me.
As energy prices go up, the cost of every consumer good, including food will go up as well.
Gasoline prices in my area have gone up more than.50 a gallon since the election... From $1.82 to $2.35
Just the threat of energy costs rising are enough to being the increases.
Personally, I’ve always thought the talk of inflation missed the point, something that is more important is how the value of the dollar is effected by this, and my favorite example is the McDonnalds Quarter Pounder with Cheese.
When it was first released in the 1970s, my local price was $.65. Back then you could get a full meal for just about $1 at McDonnalds. Today, the same (basic) sandwich goes for about $4.79.
The value of a dollar today is going to be far less as the Federal Reserve keeps on printing more dollars.
Mark
No kidding. My favorite orange juice now sells "half gallon" cartons that only hold 56 ounces, or a full 8oz glass of OJ less that they used to sell, at higher prices.
And have you noticed canned tuna fish? Long gone are the days of 6oz cans!
Mark
I’m still trying to figure out how my “$600” check, signed by President Trump, was only for $223!
Mark
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