Posted on 02/15/2021 7:49:42 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Since the start of February, various press have reported that the people of Israel are the most vaccinated in the word by a large margin against SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19. One should expect that the daily case average in this economically advanced Mediterranean nation should exhibit a rapidly improving situation when counting daily new COVID-19 cases averages.
With 72% of the Israeli population vaccinated as compared to about 14% in the United States. But recent data from Paul Elkins, a supporter of TrialSite, reveals that daily new case counts in Israel are not declining at nearly the rate that they are presently in the U.S. or United Kingdom, for example. Again, with 72% of the population now vaccinated, a marked decrease in cases should be expected—about 40% vaccination immunity to be exact. A daily cases average that doesn’t start immediately dropping now merits some investigation.
With a high natural infection history (Worldometers reports 78,758/1 million confirmed cases), if one applied a number of 5x for actual cases (asymptomatic cases and incomplete testing covered) that number would spike to 393790/1 million. That’s 39% of the population that should possibly exhibit natural immunity.
Now taking the Israeli vaccination, percentages from three weeks ago (Israeli data recently demonstrated that after 21 days vaccine efficacy was over 90% even after just one shot) the nation’s vaccination percent was 40%. Applying this math, the new cases showing up today are a consequence of approximately 79% of the population immunity using a very efficacious vaccine.
By some accounts, this should have been sufficient to approach that magical herd immunity triggering an absolute plummet in COVID-19 cases. However, this unfortunately doesn’t seem to be the case. Certainly, some of the so-called natural immunity population may overlap with the vaccinated immunity population. Consequently, this could lower the three week lagging immunity figures from 79% down to approximately 60-65%. While not enough for herd immunity, it should be enough to influence a significant reduction in the daily new cases.
While this is cause for concern, perhaps it is not alarming yet that the next couple weeks represent an important stretch of time as another 33% of the Israeli population build immunity 21 days post vaccination. These next few weeks should usher marked reduction in daily new cases in Israel. It would be a sobering thought to think that the U.S. would need to experience vaccination numbers significantly higher than 60% before there is much relief—other than what appears to be a decline in part due to greater adherence to key social distancing, mask wearing and other protective measures. Of particular concern in the United States are significantly large percentages of subgroups that are hesitant or outright will not accept a vaccine, from certain subgroups within ethnic minorities to various so called “antivax” contingents.
Recent Study Positive
On the other hand, a recent study involving the country’s largest healthcare provider shows a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 infections among the 600,000 individuals vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. Also Clalit, an HMI covering half of the nation, reports the group vaccinated is 92% less likely to succumb to severe illness due to COVID-19.
Call to Action: TrialSite and great supporters such as Paul Elkins continue to monitor these numbers. Hopefully, the health system positive data leads directly to marked decline in cases. Again, Israel’s daily new cases should be headed significantly down within a couple weeks; otherwise, something is not right.
Honestly who gives a crap about positive cases? Frankly I think it’s good there are so many positive cases. Almost everyone gets it and gets over it. That’s a good thing.
Been trending down since 1.16
Given that the second vaccines were administered in late December at the earliest, I think this is a bit premature and more importantly since the 16 when there would be the first full immunities, numbers are retreating.
Isn’t the point of vaccination to PREVENT infection?
90% effective after one shot according to the article.
But I didn’t see a breakdown of persons who had no shot vs persons with the booster shot, 21 days after the booster shot, persons with a prior case of covid (assumed immunity at some level), or no prior infection or shot.
Also is this a steady population or people coming in (possibly already infected)?
Another question, infected with the 2019/2020 covid or the UK or South African variants? Or a new variant?
India reported no deaths in a day a week ago. Did any of that change (for better or worse)?
You’re either going to get the vaccine or the virus. Eventually, you’re going to get one or the other. This virus is just that transmissible. So you’re gonna have to pick your poison.
Are the people who got the vaccine getting infected?
One had many, many medical problems including a pre-existing lung problem. They all had different symptoms. None were hospitalized.
The 4th was a 23 year old girl who worked at Subway. She's had it twice now. I think she's some kind of carrier so stay waaaaay away from her.
RE: India reported no deaths in a day a week ago. Did any of that change (for better or worse)?
India has not vaccinated a large percentage of her population ( 1.4 billion people ). But she does distribute Hydorxychloroquine and Ivermectin extensively.
see here:
https://principia-scientific.com/indias-miraculous-ivermectin-covid-treatment-is-only-3-per-person/
and here:
and here:
Puke virus hit in school last week. Went through like wildfire. Too fast to quarantine and stop the spread though. I think our quick response in cleaning everything helped though. That was very contagious! But this Covid stuff is slooowwwwwww. One adult one week, another two weeks later, another a month later, a cluster over Christmas break, none, one a month later.
RE: Are the people who got the vaccine getting infected?
Don’t know much about Israel, but we in the USA have a CONGRESSMAN who, after taking the complete 2 shot dosage of Pfizer, STILL got infected. He is Rep. Stephen Lynch.
See here:
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/congressman-tests-positive-covid-vaccine-dr-marc-siegel
The title saying that Israel "doesn’t experience marked reduction in daily cases" doesn't make sense.
They aren’t vaccines, they are perverse gene therapy.
Did you read that article? There’s a lot of pertinent info there.
Just 2 weeks to flatten the curve
My poison is the virus. I am also 99% sure I had it last February. Along with the group of guys I worked with. We all got sick with a “weird respiratory” illness in January & February. Right when a guy can back from vacation in Hawaii. He had pneumonia-like illness, but was negative for pneumonia.
I felt kind of like glass was in my lungs for 2-3 days. That was it.
RE: There’s a lot of pertinent info there.
Yes I did read it. I am posting the relevant information in this article:
Is the congressman in the 5% group that are not successfully immunized against COVID by the Pfizer vaccine? As long as he remains symptom-free the answer is most likely not. He probably picked up the virus from his staffer and it is in his nose, causing a positive test. But the vaccine is protecting him from getting sick, which is what we are hoping it will do.
The question remains how contagious he is. How much virus does he have? This is known as viral load. Is he less likely to transmit the virus to others because of the vaccine? The answer to this isn’t known yet. This exact question is under investigation, but the chances are very likely that the vaccine also decreases transmissibility even in someone like Lynch, who tests positive as a result of exposure.
Keep in mind that in Israel, observational data has shown that in a group of over 715,425 people one week after receiving their second Pfizer shot, only 317 got COVID. Maccabi Healthcare Services in Israel also revealed that out of 163,000 given both shots, only 31 were infected, compared to 6,500 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.
RE: Are the people who got the vaccine getting infected?
So, in answer to your question, the answer is YES. But they are a very small minority of them ( based on the Israeli experience so far ) as compared to the unvaccinated group.
Good question. I think Pfizer effiicacy was stated to prevent 95% of mild and severe COVID. So do the vaccines still allow people to become infected and possibly asymptomatic spreaders of COVID?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.