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Solar astronomers can now predict future sunspots. There should be a big one in a couple of days
universe today ^ | November 25, 2020 by | Brian Koberlein

Posted on 11/26/2020 8:31:30 PM PST by BenLurkin

The surface of the Sun is a turbulent dance of gravity, plasma, and magnetic fields. Much like the weather on Earth, its behavior can seem unpredictable, but there are patterns to be found when you look closely.

The first pattern to be observed on the solar surface was that of sunspots. Sunspots were noticed by a few ancient astronomers, but they have been regularly studied since the 1600s. As astronomers counted the number of spots seen each year, they found the Sun goes through active years and quiet years. There is an 11-year cycle of high and low sunspot counts. There are other cycles as well, such as the Gleisberg Cycle, which lasts 80 – 90 years.

These patterns are similar to the tornado seasons of the American Midwest, or the El Niño/La Niña cycles of the Pacific. These large patterns have a regularity that makes them easy to anticipate. But while predicting sunspot cycles is relatively easy, predicting the appearance of an individual sunspot is not.

(Excerpt) Read more at universetoday.com ...


TOPICS: Astronomy
KEYWORDS: sunspots
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To: BenLurkin

Sunspots are a good thing. And they are picking up, as is the solar flux index. Radio propagation has returned and is improving, after being nearly dead for at least 2 years.


21 posted on 11/26/2020 9:30:48 PM PST by Nik Naym (It's not my fault... I have compulsive smart-ass disorder. )
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To: Fledermaus

OK. GOT THAT!


22 posted on 11/26/2020 9:33:28 PM PST by FreeperCell
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To: Eddie01

Ha ha, I was thinking of that song, too.


23 posted on 11/26/2020 9:40:37 PM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: BenLurkin

Will it rain in Hoboken next Thursday?


24 posted on 11/26/2020 9:41:21 PM PST by choctaw man (Good ole Andrew Jackson, or You're the Reason God Made Oklahoma...)
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To: dfwgator

we’ve always been kindred spirits out here.

happy Thanksgiving to you and yours dfw!


25 posted on 11/26/2020 9:43:51 PM PST by Eddie01 (too exhausted to apply the sarc tag)
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To: SpaceBar; freedomjusticeruleoflaw
> How many civilizations are known to have been wiped out by a CME?

A fair question, but difficult. Historically, civilizations have been wiped out by "natural events" plenty of times, and a few of those could have been CME related. But we don't know.

What we DO know is that a CME like the one that caused the Carrington Event (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event) would almost certainly take out all the power grids, electronic equipment (computers, cell phones, automobiles, etc.), communications, etc. Airplanes and satellites would die and most would start falling out of the sky. Who knows what military gear would go haywire, and with what effects (it isn't all protected against CMEs). Modern life -- modern civilization -- would be vastly damaged and would take decades to recover to a recognizable industrial level.

You might argue that that is not the "end of civilization", and you would be right, except for one thing. Humans would freak out completely, and they would destroy what was left of civilization after the CME's destruction.

26 posted on 11/26/2020 9:44:01 PM PST by dayglored ("Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."`)
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To: Eddie01

Same to you.


27 posted on 11/26/2020 9:44:16 PM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: dayglored

Someone assumes we are civilized..

I guess that all depends on your definition.

In any case I would prefer not to live though a massive CME that hit earth, a giant meteor, or a manmade EMP for that matter.

Our current civilization is extremely vulnerable to this and becoming more so every day.

Imagine if you will 20 years from now, a massive CME causes the clouds to break, Azure, Aws, Ibm, Google, Alibaba suddenly gone, the internet gone

Worse yet all the massive power transformers in the power grid melt and powerlines catch on fire.

The only vehicles that work are 70 year old Mercedes diesels

No thanks.


28 posted on 11/26/2020 11:28:15 PM PST by algore
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To: FreeperCell

“Is there any way we can stop this?!!?”

Yes!!! Just wear you damned mask!!!


29 posted on 11/27/2020 3:32:25 AM PST by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
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To: FreeperCell

Absolutely Correct!
.
Potential Disaster Looms!
.
We Must Do SOMETHING!?!


30 posted on 11/27/2020 4:27:02 AM PST by Big Red Badger (TRUMP, the Other guy lives in a Basement!)
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To: Fledermaus

I like THAT Idea!

Appease the “Sun Gods!”
.
Likely candidates?
Volunteers?


31 posted on 11/27/2020 4:31:08 AM PST by Big Red Badger (TRUMP, the Other guy lives in a Basement!)
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To: Bob434

Sure - like sunspots, liver spots will occur if one waits long enough...


32 posted on 11/27/2020 5:31:10 AM PST by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: ETL

One of my kids used to work on the SOHO Mission at NASA. It was his college job. He told me about the sunspot activity stuff a couple years ago.


33 posted on 11/27/2020 6:19:03 AM PST by cyclotic (The most dangerous people are the ones that feel the most helpless)
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To: cyclotic
Wow, what a great experience for your son to have worked at NASA. But are you saying that his instructors there actually informed him that sunspots are linked to climate?

Because it wasn’t easy finding that piece on the SOHO website. It was buried deeply within the site, in the “Not-So Frequently Asked Questions” section! For real. I’m not making this up to be funny.

https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/classroom/notsofaq.html#SUNSPOT_CLIMATE
_____________________________________________

NASA: Solar & Heliospheric Observatory, aka SOHO

Not So Frequently Asked Questions

Sunspots

How big was the largest sunspot group?
Why is it that the areas that appear brightest in the x-ray pictures correspond to sunspot locations?
What is the origin and structure of the designation process for sunspots?
Do Sunspots only appear on certain latitudes?
Why do sunspots seem to enhance radio wave propagation on Earth?
Does the number of sunspots have any effect on the climate here on Earth?

https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/classroom/notsofaq.html#SUNSPOT_CLIMATE

34 posted on 11/27/2020 7:59:59 AM PST by ETL (REAL Russia collusion! DEMOCRAT-Russia collusion!! Click ETL...)
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To: ETL

Just the opposite. His boss thought global warming is a bunch of hooey


35 posted on 11/27/2020 10:28:14 AM PST by cyclotic (The most dangerous people are the ones that feel the most helpless)
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To: cyclotic
Just the opposite. His boss thought global warming is a bunch of hooey

Yes, that is what I thought you were saying when I asked "are you saying that his instructors there actually informed him that sunspots are linked to climate?"

Or do you mean his boss didn't believe in global warming period, regardless of reason, natural or human?

36 posted on 11/27/2020 10:35:02 AM PST by ETL (REAL Russia collusion! DEMOCRAT-Russia collusion!! Click ETL...)
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To: ETL

I didn’t ask him that much detail.

He’s on a different mission now. He said his office mates are mostly liberal but there are a few normals there too. Not that it matters. he hasn’t seen anyone in months.

He’s one of only three people who can perform his functions so they only go to the space center when necessary and only solo. If they can work from home they do.


37 posted on 11/27/2020 10:44:56 AM PST by cyclotic (The most dangerous people are the ones that feel the most helpless)
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To: Bob434

But of course.

I predict that liver spots will appear on your hands and face with some regularity after you have lived around 27,300 days


38 posted on 11/27/2020 10:57:04 AM PST by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) t Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay My, o. h, my, what a wonderful day)
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To: Bob434

But of course.

I predict that liver spots will appear on your hands and face with some regularity after you have lived around 27,300 days


39 posted on 11/27/2020 10:57:04 AM PST by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) t Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay My, o. h, my, what a wonderful day)
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To: bert

LOL

74.744861 Years


40 posted on 11/27/2020 12:46:45 PM PST by Bob434
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