Posted on 08/11/2020 11:34:01 AM PDT by metmom
A swarm of earthquakes beneath the Salton Sea began on August 10, 2020.
The largest earthquake that has occurred, as of this release, is a magnitude 4.6 at 8:56 AM PDT on August 10. This earthquake and the associated swarm are located approximately 8 miles from the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. This area has also seen swarms in the past – most recently, in 2001, 2009, and 2016. Past swarms have remained active for 1 to 20 days, with an average duration of about a week.
During this earthquake swarm, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly greater than usual. The southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault is capable of rupturing in large magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 7+), but the last earthquake that strong was more than 300 years ago. In a typical week, there is approximately a 1 in 10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault. That probability is significantly elevated while swarm activity remains high.
(Excerpt) Read more at usgs.gov ...
Who had Swarm of Earthquakes in August?
Only one of these scenarios will occur within the next week. These scenarios include the possibility of earthquakes on and off the San Andreas Fault.
Scenario One (Most likely, about 80% chance): Earthquakes continue but none will be larger than magnitude 5.4 within the next 7 days.
The most likely scenario is that the rate of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next 7 days. Some moderately sized earthquakes may occur (magnitude in the range M4.5-M5.4), which could cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (Less likely, about 19% chance): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days.
A less likely scenario is a somewhat larger earthquake (up to a M6.9). Earthquakes of this size could cause damage around the Salton Sea area and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
Scenario Three (Least Likely, approximately 1% chance): A much larger earthquake (magnitude 7 or higher) could occur within the next 7 days.
A much less likely scenario, compared with the previous two scenarios, is that the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.6 that occurred on the 10 August (i.e., M7.0 and above). While this is a very small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?.................
Let’s get it over with. Underground nuclear testing right along the fault. The longer it takes the more severe the damage.
Hey, give a one percent chance of winning Powerball and I'll clean out the piggy bank to buy tickets!
Well great USGS forecast. Now I’m going to go see Madam Zelda for a more accurate one.
The Amazing Kreskin. Or was it Carnac the Magnificent?
As long as they don’t eat my tomatoes and potatoes, I’m good.
I’m battling tomato hornworms at the moment. Things nightmares are made of. I’m heading out to buy some BT and conduct biological warfare on the vermin.
I’m not saying anything. The USGS is.
I just posted it for any who live in the area and who are interested in the information.
That might work.
You’re right, though. The longer the big one is off, the bigger it will be.
Hey, government work.
The rest of the Salton Sea keyword, chrono:
LOL!......That was a quote from Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber............
Sevin Dust!................
“there is approximately a 1 in 10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake”
There are 86,400 seconds /day
in 7 days that = 604,800 seconds
1/10000 chance of 7+ magnitude earthquake
Therefore there is a chance of a 7+ magnitude earthquake every 60 seconds
I’m movie challenged. I virtually never watch one.
MAYBE once a year if it’s worth it.
I saw Hidden Figures and I Can Only Imagine, and some of the Star Wars episodes, only after being assured by my daughter that they were not so bad after all. She’s a pretty fair judge of what’s good and what, not for the Star Wars series.
The 9.0 Cascadian earthquake was also just over three hundred years ago.
Saw my first hornworms on the tomato plants as a little kid. Pretty nasty looking things. I got to operate the hand pump cannister of powdered insecticide. I’m sure inhaling that stuff has made me the freak I am today
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