Also, the best reasons in America to reelect President Trump!
Thanks to PROCON for the above realities.
Posted on 07/19/2020 9:19:28 AM PDT by Signalman
Despite the spate of recent polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, a new shock poll reveals Americans aren’t quite as eager to hand over their freedom as some have said.
According to RealClearPolitics’ latest aggregate of polls, Biden leads Trump by 8 points, 49.6 percent to 40.8. But a poll conducted for the Sunday Express by the Democracy Institute, a Washington-based think tank, reveals Americans aren’t buying the narrative the U.S. media are trying to advance.
Contrary to what the media would have us believe, 77 percent of the 1,500 likely voters surveyed do not view Mount Rushmore as a racist monument. When asked which of two phrases better fit their own thinking about race in America, 29 percent of participants indicated “Black Lives Matter,” and 71 percent marked “All Lives Matter.”
Most notably, rather than showing Biden with a sharp advantage, the survey forecasts a much tighter race, with each candidate receiving 47 percent of the national popular vote. Moreover, the Democracy Institute predicts that if the election were held today, Trump would win 309 electoral votes and Biden 229.
State-by-state data isn’t conclusive, considering the limited sample size, but the data indicates Trump is ahead in the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a margin of 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The poll puts Wisconsin in the Biden column, while giving Trump Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Trump is considered less likable than Biden. When asked which candidate respondents would be more inclined to invite for a barbecue, 33 percent chose Trump, while 51 percent chose Biden. Sixteen percent said neither. When asked if they believe Biden is in the early stages of dementia, however, 55 percent answered yes, and 40 percent no.
As virtually all recent polls have found, the Democracy Institute identified the massive enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. Seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are very enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to only 43 percent of Biden supporters. That explains why 81 percent of Trump voters say their choice was “a positive vote for [their] candidate” rather than a “negative vote against his opponent.” For Biden, only 29 percent said it was a positive vote, while a whopping 71 percent said it was negative.
Notably, participants were asked if they were “comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote.” Only 29 percent of Trump voters said yes, versus 82 percent of Biden voters. This “shy” vote phenomenon was one of the reasons polls were so wrong in 2016. Many pro-Trumpers, wanting to avoid stigma, simply won’t tell a colleague or even a pollster whom they plan to vote for.
Fifty-two percent of those surveyed believe Trump will be reelected. While 4 percent of Trump supporters indicated their vote could change by Election Day, 12 percent of Biden backers said they could change their minds.
Other signs bode well for Trump. Although he had no serious competition for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination, his supporters have still turned out in large numbers throughout Republican primaries. Just the News pointed out that in Pennsylvania, for example, 934,524 voted for Trump while only 914,904 voted for Biden. In Ohio, the candidates received 682,843 and 623,186 votes, respectively. In Florida, 86,000 more voted for Trump than for Biden. This pattern began early in the primary season, with Trump significantly outperforming past incumbent presidents in their equivalent primaries.
Moreover, not all of Bernie Sanders’s supporters will vote for Biden. As they did in 2016, some will stay home, and some will vote for Trump. NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece reported that “in 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall, according to an analysis of exit polling — well over twice the president’s total margin of victory in those states, which were critical to his electoral vote win in the face of a decisive popular vote loss.”
After the Russian collusion hoax, the impeachment hoax, and everything in between, corporate media has lost a lot of credibility. Americans have recently watched MSNBC’s Ali Velshi tell viewers the Minneapolis riots were “not generally speaking unruly” as an out-of-control fire raged in the background. They saw the Washington governor and Seattle mayor condone an “autonomous zone” set up by anarchists in the heart of the state’s largest city, and they’ve witnessed the toppling of statues of great Americans throughout the country.
It should come as no surprise that most voters do not believe Mount Rushmore is a racist monument, that America is an irredeemably racist nation that must be burned down and rebuilt, nor that Biden’s victory is a foregone conclusion. Not everybody is ready to hop on board the socialism train. Thank God for that.
This poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted July 1-3 by the Democracy Institute. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed were Democrats, 38 percent were Republicans, and 24 percent were independents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent and a confidence interval of 95 percent.
Trump will beat Biden like Nathan Phillip’s beats his drum!
Re: the enthusiasm gap
It’s certainly true in my case. I have NEVER been as enthusiastic about voting for a candidate as I am about voting for Trump this year. I have dutifully pulled the lever for every GOP nominee in every general presidential election since 1988. And it’s not even close. I remember being enthusiastic about Bush 41 in ‘88, as it was my first time voting and I thought I was casting my ballot for Reagan’s 3rd term. But since then my feeling has ranged downward from mildly enthusiastic (maybe Bush 43) to lukewarm (Bush 41 in ‘92, Dole ‘96) to holding-my-nose-and-voting-for-a-real-stinker (McCain, Romney).
This year, I’d crawl on broken glass to vote for Donald Trump. Not because I think he’s perfect, but because no president has been treated so unfairly by the media and his opponents. And no president’s reelection since at least the Civil War era has been so necessary to preserve some semblance of order. if Biden wins, I’m afraid it’s lights out.
——“DC statehood would destroy the electoral college.”
How would DC statehood destroy the Electoral College?——
LOL no kidding. It wouldn’t change the EC at all.
It would hurt the GOP in the Senate, though.
Polls Schmolls. WHO CARES! They are ALL FAKE!
To even mention “Real Clear Politics”, the sum of OLD FAKE polls, shows how ridiculous any claims thereafter you might make.
Polls are like drugs, the more you ingest, the more you crave.
F the polls, good OR bad. They are manipulating you, and you are letting them do it!
Actually, I like having President Trump tweet what he’s thinking. For years democraps and their media friends have been name calling and spewing lies about our candidates. It was about time we had a champion of the people who could give it back better than he got it. Only difference is people are realizing, President Trump isn’t lying. Doesn’t have to. What we found out was the democraps and the media can’t handle it and go crying back to their mommas because they are shocked. My twin is a dyed in the wool liberal retired teacher. Nothing is changing his mind. Every time we talk politics (he starts it), I confront him with facts and he falls back to, “Trumps and idiot.” I finish him off with, “you get that punch line from CNN or MSNBC?”
It would have no impact on the Electoral College, but would add two Senators.
The democrat party is the new road kill even the buzzards won’t touch it.
Basically very good news based on the only polling methodology that has a chance of being predictive of the election outcome.
The methodology: LIKELY VOTERS.
The recent Biden by 15 poll was, incredibly, a mix of REGISTERED VOTERS and ADULTS. This is a methodology that is guaranteed to predict a Jeffrey Epstein (D) victory over Abraham Lincoln (R) in a Presidential election poll.
One or two words of caution: I think the D vs R mix of 50/50 is perhaps a bit too favorable to Trump and the poll preceded the recent Covid-19 uptick in deaths.
But all in all, very good news.
Absolutely. Watching the liberal teeth-gnashing on election night 2016 was a figurative riot. Election night 2020 will probably not be as much fun no matter who wins.
You might wanna have a full salt-shaker handy when a pollster titles it’s poll; “How Sleepy Joe Biden could still EASILY lose the US election”
https://democracyinstitute.org/how-sleepy-joe-biden-could-still-easily-lose-the-us-election
Patriots are reminded that PDJT cannot fire worthless Congress and Democrats and RINOs in state governments. That’s a job that only us ordinary voters can do in November.
DC statehood would have no effect on the electoral college. DC as a state would have the same 3 electoral votes it has today, and one member of the House.
But what about Puerto Rican statehood? It would have 4 seats in the House and 6 electoral votes.
None of this means anything if the left can push through massive mail-in voting in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Florida, and Ohio.
Also, the best reasons in America to reelect President Trump!
Thanks to PROCON for the above realities.
It’s another issue Republicans should have addressed years ago. The only logical solution is to reduce the District to the Federal Triangle, return the rest to Maryland, and repeal the 23rd Amendment. Maryland probably gains a safe Democrat House seat, but the Democrats lose 2 or 3 electoral votes (depending on how the House is reapportioned) and we remove the threat of 2 permanent Democrat senators.
Congress might be able to do this without Maryland’s consent. Repealing the 23rd Amendment probably would not be controversial, because otherwise the District’s 3 electoral votes would either be controlled by the President and his family as the only remaining residents of the District, or by Congress utilizing its power to direct the manner of appointing the District’s electors under the 23rd Amendment.
Of course it would change the electoral college. EC votes are based upon the sum of the number of senators and congressman for a given state, with a fixed total of 538 available to all states combined. DC would therefore get 3 electoral votes, which would have to be redistributed from other states. Not a huge change, but it would most certainly be a change.
Never mind, I wasn’t thinking about the fact DC already gets 3 EC votes.
Yes
I'm hoping that won't be necessary. I did, however, dip into my savings to send what, for me, was a very large donation to Trump's campaign. I also sent some big bucks to the National Republican Senatorial Committee. We need Trump and Senators to continue the work.
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