Admiral OANN you are in charge now!
Posted on 07/01/2020 11:53:22 AM PDT by Signalman
With five months until the election, things couldn’t look any worse for the president of the United States. His approval rating is down to 40%. People are getting tired of his antics and the insults he hurls at his opponents. The media is increasingly confident that, come November, the voters will elect a new chief executive.
This might sound like June 2020, but I’m actually referring to June 1948 — when President Harry Truman, a Democrat, was running to keep his job against Republican Thomas Dewey.
The similarities between the 1948 and 2020 elections are striking. Like President Trump, Truman often ruffled feathers with his salty language. At one point, Truman even described Dewey as a fascist, a term not taken lightly just three years after World War II.
Just as with Trump, the media described Truman as desperate and unhinged. They mocked him for the more than 8,000 empty chairs at a speech he gave in Nebraska — presaging the coverage of Trump’s recent speech in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Almost everyone thought Truman would lose, including the president’s mother-in-law. A Newsweek poll reported 50 out of 50 politicos predicting a Dewey victory.
But on Nov. 3, 1948, the world woke up to the stunning news that Truman had won. The experts were left struggling to make sense of how they got it so wrong.
Today, we’re seeing poll after poll showing Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden. In the echo chamber of cable news and social media, there’s a growing consensus that Trump is headed for humiliating defeat.
Are the pundits right, or are we moving toward another stunning win by a beleaguered incumbent? Could history be repeating itself?
The 1948 election warns us that an upset is very possible. There are two dynamics at work in 2020 that were decisive that fateful year.
The first is political staying power. Prior to 1948, the Democrats had won four straight presidential elections. Many observers assumed that they were due for a loss, especially with the GOP’s large gains in the 1946 midterm elections. The media, however, underestimated the strength of the Democrats’ New Deal coalition. While commentators were thinking in terms of political cycles and party turnover, they failed to consider the New Deal’s long-term appeal for its constituents.
Today’s pundits might be making the same mistake with Trump’s 2016 coalition. Throughout the Mueller investigation, the impeachment process, the pandemic, and record unemployment, Trump’s approval rating in the RealClearPolitics average has remained surprisingly consistent (around the mid-to-low 40s), showing that at least 4 out of 10 people support the president regardless of whatever the opposition throws up. That may not be sufficient to guarantee victory, but it’s a precious asset in a general election — especially with Democratic enthusiasm for Biden comparatively low.
The second factor is that people often vote for incumbent presidents based on certain intangibles (leadership skills or likability) despite the candidate’s perceived flaws or policy disagreements. The Washington Post alluded to this phenomenon after Truman’s victory: “The American people admire a man with courage even though they don’t always agree with him.” The voters might even give the opposing party control of Congress during the midterm elections to check that president, but they will still reelect a flawed incumbent because of their supposed charisma (see Bill Clinton and Barack Obama) or boldness (see Truman).
Like Trump, Truman was seen as a fighter who was not afraid to go against the political establishment. And like Biden, Dewey was an uninspiring candidate who, because of overconfidence, played it safe and limited his public appearances.
It is possible that in a dangerous and unpredictable world, voters will prefer a feisty and aggressive Trump over a lackluster Biden.
Despite all of this, Biden could still win in November. But if history can teach us anything, it is that the experts can get it wrong. We don’t even have to go back to 1948. Exactly four years ago (in June 2016), Hillary Clinton led Trump in the polls by 5 percentage points. The night before the election, the intelligentsia was still confidently predicting a Clinton win. The next day, Trump stunned the world.
#TrumpHasNoChanceTheSequel! As was in 2016, the media pollsters can’t seem to find and probably doesn’t even look for Trump voters. In 2016, Trump got elected by capturing enough alienated voters (apparently never polled) of both parties to push his EV total to 306. Till about 10pm election night, ALL establishment media were celebrating president Hillary (then Florida went Trump and the faces got long). Trump’s voters were “hidden” in 2016, I imagine they’re still our there... seething at the violence of the “woke” mobs.
With Old Joe Biden the Democrats are where the establishment GOP was four years ago... clueless, no platform, no ideas to make average folks lives better just condemnation of all things America. They have not a “Trump” to rescue them so have surrendered to the lunatic fringe, control of the party. Old “Jurassic Dementia” Joe is testimony to this reality. All the energy in the Democrat Party is destructive, it only creates chaos. Through all the noise of polls and other conventional idiocy, I don’t get the vibe that Americans are ready to flush their country down the Socialist toilet.
“Fox ratings are through the roof and Tucker has the highest consecutive ratings in history.”
Can’t go by that. Fox is the only conservative channel.
CNN and MSNBC viewers combined are higher than Fox most days. Hillary did win popular vote.
The soccer moms and college educated crowd hate Trump.
I do not feel good about this election at this point. Covid and the economy = people may just want a change.
Please, God
“The only good in the end will be a new generation of politicians that are inspired by Trump who will replace the old, and out-of-touch GOP.”
Boy! Is that optomistic! Where are they?
We’ve got that feckless Romney, preening off-camera. Lindsay Graham is calling, “All aboard!”, on the Cheap Labor Express.
Trump might as well build the Wall out of statues.
Not turning America over to the Communists should be an easy choice if 90% of the MSM wasn’t working to hide the real agenda.
Amen to that! And he is only one in the GOP that will.
He offered the national guard, governors refused. He suggested using the military and SecDef went insubordinate and publicly said he didn't agree at the same time a bunch of former generals talked about it being unamerican, I think causing Trump to worry if they would actually follow his orders (I mean, he's been betrayed continuously by everyone around him for years now, including military personnel still in uniform - McMaster and Vindman at the very least). If that ever happened it would be an unprecedented disaster so if he even had a tiny worry about it then he was wise to stand down. And yes, to some extent he talks a big game but sometimes doesn't follow through. But there were some factors that boxed him in a bit.
Case in point: Yesterday Rand Paul launched into Dr. Fauci and today Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick is basically calling him out as a fraud.
So why are they out in front of Trump? Why hasn’t Trump fired him?
Stuff like that.
Let me think about this. Do I want to vote for a rude guy that wants to put money in my pocket or a smarmy guy who wants to take my money. Hmmm.
Trump wins by a big margin....
The day after, long lines of liberals seen on The Golden Gate Bridge, waiting for their chance to jump off.
Fox has failed. Go OANN!
Agreed. What Trump is doing is pushing back, and comparing this push back to the endless 24/7 assaults by the MSM, he’s barely making a dent.
Wouldn’t it be nice if more Republicans stand up to the left like Trump?
LOL
Joke Bidet - that’s great.
“People” like the Bush-league republican and Romney-bots and assorted never-Trumpers.”
I am so personally embarrassed by my support of George W and Romney. I really thought that Romney had the chance to govern as a conservative. I worked in the W campaign. While don’t have the dislike for him that I do Romney (He is a coward and traitor to the principles while he pledged in order to get himself elected) I just think W is just another Squishy liberal.
As for Bill Crystal, while I thought at one time he had principles he has proven himself worse than useless! I was used, like many other Conservatives!
Admiral OANN you are in charge now!
Don’t laugh. That will probably happen.
I love the guy. I’m afraid he is getting burned out by the constant attacks. He should take a two week break.
When TRUMP wins this November, he deserves a well earned break. Take some time off, sir.
Let’s see how them thar debates go.
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