Posted on 06/20/2020 6:25:54 AM PDT by loucon
They keep saying on the news how many states are getting worse, but never why.
This chart shows which states are getting better and which are getting worse. The scale represents the percent of the total population of the state who have tested positive.
This number is based on the number of reported positive test results. The real number would be of a factor higher. Does .55& represent herd immunity?
To me, this correlates to .55% (a little over 1/2 of a percent) as the turning point.
I genuinely enjoy and appreciate your posts. Gently, the goggles are not necessary.
Love it. :)
Here’s the way I express the numbers...
(1) USA Tested - 26 million - Almost 8% of USA Population
(2) USA Positive Tests - 2.2 million - 8.6% of Tests Are Positive
(3) How many tested or positive for antibodies - Unknown
(4) Percent of USA population that is or was infected - My Estimate - 10% or 33 million Americans - Several European cities have reported an 11%-12% infection rate.
(5) USA COVID-19 Fatalities - 120,000
(6) USA Case Fatality Rate - Based on 33 million estimated infections - 0.36%
(7) Case Fatality Rate for a severe influenza season - 0.15%
(8) Because of a massive over count of COVID-19 deaths - all “presumed” COVID deaths are counted and all pneumonia related deaths are counted - it is likely that the COVID-19 case fatality rate is very close to, or below, the flu fatality rate.
Luckily where I live people mainly ignore mask requests and most places (like Hobby Lobby recently) have given up.
You want to look like a good little commie, wear a mask. That’s all it’s about.
NM here, we are still seeing cases rise on the reservations.
My county has become a hot spot, we slowly grew to 8 and had no new cases for 3 weeks and now we are around 45 including 33 cases this week..
Part of it is testing, earlier you could only get tested on Tuesday and only if you had symptoms. Now, they are testing the “at risk” essential workers proactively. I hear most are from a processing plant that wouldn’t normally be running this time of year but the Covid panic wiped out their supply and Walmart.
what we really don’t know is if the masks did or do any good at all.
That’s a pretty decent analysis. Thanks for posting
We will never know the “real numbers”. 5% of people who have symptoms and think they have it and are able to be tested come back positive. So what? Tests typically confirm that around the same number of people who believe they have strep throat actually have it, but most are given antibiotics for their viral infection anyway because that is what they want. The deaths from this have been exaggerated by probably at least 2 to 1 in most locations. My brother-in-law was on hospice care for an inoperable cancerous brain tumor. They never tested his body for coronavirus but he was counted as “presumptive” by CDC guidelines. Even deaths by extreme physical trauma have been counted.
But even with all this exaggeration, the following chart based on reported deaths shows that in this country and most other countries around the world that this thing has basically run its course. It doesn't mean that you can't still get it, but it does mean that in countries where it ran through the population despite all the nonsense that the vulnerable low hanging fruit have mostly already died.
You can tell people what to do all you like.
I don’t take orders.
I know, it’s just a way to fight back. ;)
Good seeing you.
You are correct. As for SC we were never totally shut down and we were open early. What I saw once nearly everything was open was people with no masks and no social distancing, a free for all and now our percentage of positives is much higher. Some restaurants closed back up on their own because people would not follow the guidelines and business owners feared for their employees. I see most businesses being proactive but it is the consumers who are being inconsiderate.
“what we really don’t know is if the masks did or do any good at all.”
If I really need a mask the place isn’t safe and I don’t go there is my answer. Distance and avoidance of poorly ventilated areas is the answer for me.
“We will never know the “real numbers”. 5% of people who have symptoms and think they have it and are able to be tested come back positive. So what?”
That doesn’t square with the fact that most areas are increasingly testing people whose jobs force them to interact with the public. Choosing to get tested injects a hightened probability of testing statistic inaccuracy. Heightened routine testing of public contact people, and finding a rise in cases tends to reinforce the fact that disease prevalence is increasing.
loucon wrote:
“The north also had a head start. The 1st cases reported were in Oregon, Washington, Illinois and New York.”
That’s true, and we can see the pattern.
“what we really don’t know is if the masks did or do any good at all.”
Depends on your expectations. If you want a guaranteed commitment from a mask to stop the virus without a hazmet or MOPP suit, you won’t find it. Are filters good against direct virus contact? Nope. There isn’t a filter made that will stop direct contact with a virus, too small. You limit your contact. So if someone coughs or sneezes in your face and hits the filter, you are probably compromised. Change immediately and hope you are clean. The only way to stay clean is limited contact or no contact. No is better. Don’t believe about the surgical or N95 mask promises. They were not designed for protection like this. It’s a scam to pacify the population.
rwood
Here is a PDF that further illustrates this.
The saturation rate is the speed at which the virus is spreading.
The red graph is daily recorded positive cases.
The blue graph in a perfect world would be a sine wave. (see New Yorks chart)
All graphs should end up looking like that given the time to do so.
http://7lstv.com/covid19/freerepublic/analysis-061220.pdf
I agree. I’ll go further and say that right off the bat, 50% of the population is immune. So another 10+% infected gets you to herd immunity.
“BTW: A friend just tested positive. She probably caught it in January.”
Out of curiosity — What symptoms/degree of sickness did your friend experience?
Again, just like all the riots about alleged racism....the PREMISE IS ALL WRONG.
The faulty premise here is that the disease is certain death, a Black Plague.
If that was the case, then increase in cases is important. But always, the only real import is how deaths are going. How are they? If the deaths per day are dropping, then it’s good.
“Out of curiosity — What symptoms/degree of sickness did your friend experience?”
She’s a nurse. She had two days of bad fever (103). Felt rotten for a few more days. Doctors thought it was a bad flu and told her to come back to work a week after the symptoms went away, so she did.
I had the same thing a few days later. I’m retired so I just sweated out the fever and felt like it was hard to breathe for a week. Then went on with life. I’d like to be tested but am afraid I’d add to the “new cases spike in Arizona” theme.
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