Posted on 05/25/2020 8:41:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new model shows reopening states and ignoring the pandemic could result in more than 5 million people contracting coronavirus.
According to Yahoo Finance, a Penn Wharton Budget Model shows reopening states could cause positive coronavirus cases in the U.S. to jump to 5.4 million by the end of July. The model, which assumes states reopening May 18, explores various scenarios under which states reopen.
The model also includes lockdowns, a partial reopening, and takes into account whether social distancing rules would continue to be adhered to or are relaxed.
If states fully reopen with no social distancing rules in place, the model shows as many as 5.4 million people could contract coronavirus. If states reopen while still practicing measures of social distancing, the number drops to nearly 4.3 million. Partially reopening the states with social distancing rules in place would result in nearly 3.2 million positive cases, according to the model.
The current death toll in the United States is more than 91,000, according to Johns Hopkins. With states under a full lockdown, the model still projects the death toll at just over 156,000, an increase from its previous forecasts of 117,000.
A Penn Wharton Budget Model from May 1, showed more than 200,000 deaths related to coronavirus pandemic.
Although the model predicts a significant rise in cases and deaths, it does show that the economy will rebound faster if states are reopened. According to the model, if states stay in lockdown with social distancing orders in place, the U.S. GDP will shrink by 10.8% year over year by July 24.
However, reopening states will save the country from severe economic losses. If states reopen, the GDP would decline by 7.7% compared to 2019. If social distancing is reduced, GDP would decline by 6.6%.
Reopening states in spite of the coronavirus would also benefit job growth. More than 30 million Americans are currently unemployed. But if states reopened, 1 million jobs would be created by the end of July. If states aren’t reopened, millions more will join the unemployed ranks.
The settled science is starting to re-settle on how infectious those asymptomatic carriers really are
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/
Excellent
And that’s a bad thing why?
There are going to be 150-200k deaths anyway, mostly of people who are diseased or lived past their life expectancy and being kept alive by a medical system which perverts the notion of the definition “living”.
I still equate this pandemic to a “bad flu”.
Sorry to be obtuse, but for those of you with children, you should be absolutely relieved that the perhaps only pandemic in your lifetime not only spared your child, but prepped their system for the next one. We should be so lucky that it primarily targets those who are weak, much to the chagrin of population-control freaks like Gates.
Furthermore, there will be analysis for decades of the relationship between “western lifestyle disease” and coronavirus disease. I will myself be adding a chapter to my book; someday I might actually finish it.
The question is who’s gonna care to read it if the economy collapses and people are more concerned about getting calories than where they come from...
Hear, hear!
Did you realize there is NO science behind “ social distancing”?
The concept came from a science fair project of a 14 yr old whose connected father ( neither an epidemiologist nor a modeler) managed to impress some people including George Bush 43 in 2006
Contracting and getting sick are two BIG differences.
Is this the same pack of low grade morons and buffoons that do the climate change models?
how else do you get the desired herd immunity?
all the knobs everywhere prattling on about herd immunity, well how the hell are you supposed to build it up by locking everyone apart?
advise the elderly and health compromised to take extra precautions, let everyone else go out and get the herd immunity up.
fricking idiots.
NOT what I want to see on Memorial Day.
Whatever, lol!
and 4,999,000 will either not even know they have it or will recover.
Oh no...its a model.
Mock it!!!!
And yet...freepers flock to model threads. Folks can quote the predictions and how far they are off.
Yet, the same people rely on models like these every single day of their lives at their homes, going to work, talking on the phone, and diving home from work.
And no one ever bitches about those?
I think its because 99% of freepers not only could not identify a predictive model, they would not be able to explain how it works, and how inputs can vary.
But, yeah...its a model. Let’s mock it.
(The whole CV Statistician “thing” is amusing.”
Well, that would be kinda cool, and it comports with my original idea of having us fully open by Labor Day weekend. However, with governments bungling seemingly everything on their end, I now say, open up SAFELY and SWIFTLY!
WE NEED 50,000,OOO VENTILATORS ASAP!!
I PERSONALLY know at least a handful of people who were "diagnosed over the phone" with the China virus and told specifically by their doctors to STAY HOME and weren't sent for a test!
Based on the most common symptoms of it, I likely had it in late February myself and my youngest son did as well.
None of us ever got sent for tests and here in Hellinois you cannot even get an antibody test for it.
So what's to say many MILLIONS had it, never got tested for it and recovered?
It's not unfathomable IMO. I think it's far more likely to be honest.
Last night I told my son that he would make a great expert some day. Being a college student, he took that as a complement. I then explained that he would make a great expert because he is almost always wrong in predicting what will happen next and is always surprised at things that are obvious the all the people around him. Just like all the other experts.
I don’t know about the rest of y’all but I think models are a bunch of crap. Starting with the ‘global warming’ models, all the models, including likely this one are wrong.
The world’s reaction to the CCPvirus would have been very different if the models had been right.
Models are correct only after whatever they were modeling has past and adjustments have been made to the models based on actual results.
Garbage in...GOSPEL out. And the bitter clingers cling bitterly to their religion of "theory beats reality", especially if the theory promises bad news.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.