Posted on 05/20/2020 8:02:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
An Israeli professor who made waves in early April for insisting that the coronavirus will play itself out after 70 days regardless of intervention levels says that he has been proved right, and that claims the virus will return in force for a second wave are just speculation.
“It’s very amusing that people talk about a second wave,” Isaac Ben-Israel, a prominent mathematician, chairman of Israel’s Space Agency, and a former general, told The Times of Israel. “How do they know there will be a second wave? And how do they know that it will come in the winter?” However, a public health expert disputed Ben-Israel’s claims and said he “has no clue about epidemiology and public health.”
Ben-Israel said that since he crunched figures on the pandemic some six weeks ago and publicized his theory that COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days, he has been vindicated — and concluded that the “hysteria” he sees around him is “as contagious as biological diseases.”
What is more, he is now arguing that surprise over the radically different mortality rates among infected people in different countries is misplaced, and is putting forward a counterintuitive claim.
“There is a natural assumption that fewer infections means fewer deaths but it’s not correct,” he said, arguing: “There is no explainable relationship between the number of people infected and the number of people who die. The ratio between deaths and infections differs sometimes by a factor of 100 or more between different countries.”
He asserted that mortality rates are unfathomable by any understood logic.
He claimed that the duration of a country’s COVID-19 outbreak is set and won’t vary based on what actions it takes.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesofisrael.com ...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
TITLE: Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days
On April 19 he wrote of Israel: “It turns out that the peak of the virus’s spread has been behind us for about two weeks now, and will probably fade within two more weeks.”
On May 2, just under two weeks later, the number of newly infected people per day dropped to under 100 for the first time since late March, and has remained below that figure.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proclaimed that Israel’s coronavirus stats reflect a “major success,” but Ben-Israel disagrees, claiming that they just reflect the virus running its natural course.
He said:“This isn’t because Israel did anything special; the same thing happened in Taiwan where they had no lockdown.”
As logical as a blue State governor...
Of all the countries and companies researching COVID-19, I trust the Israeli information the most. Their medical R&D is light years ahead of anyone, including the US.
In the 2017-18 epidemic, there were 48.8 million cases here in the U.S. yet 280 million people never caught it. Which reinforces my own theory:
Social distancing and stupid face masks just slow it down, you're either going to get it or you won't....such is the nature of viruses.
That's the beauty of being a Libturd. You don't have to KNOW anything. You just have to SAY.
And be sure to give yourself plenty of wiggle room by using words like, "could", "might", "experts say", "models show", "studies find".
“Social distancing and stupid face masks just slow it down, you’re either going to get it or you won’t....such is the nature of viruses.”
I think you’re absolutely right.
To prepare his theory early last month, The professor examined figures from countries that experienced coronavirus early, and concluded that it follows the same 40-day-to-peak and 70-day-to-resolution pattern no matter where it strikes, and NO MATTER WHAT MEASURES GOVERNMENTS IMPOSE TO TRY TO THWART IT.
Prof. Ben-Israel didn’t specify a particular start date that he uses for his calculations, and said that initially, with regard to Israel, he counted from the first case. For other countries, however, he began counting when cases were “significant,” though he didn’t offer a clear quantification of what this means. He said it is reasonable to begin counting when a country passes 100 cases to assess his theory.
RE: In the 2017-18 epidemic, there were 48.8 million cases here in the U.S.
What epidemic was that? I seem to have missed it as I was traveling almost every month ( on a plane flying somewhere ).
Isaac Ben-Israel is not a medical person, he is a mathematician.
However, I believed in his theory back when it was first published here on FR, and I’m glad to see the evidence continues to support his theory.
But those dictator governors still want to hang on to their power.
bttt
He may correct about the panic playing itself out in 70 days, give or take a few. However, the economic impact of “the panDEMic” will be felt for many years to come. But I’m sure we saved at least one or two lives, so Nanzi and her minions will be happy.
If he is right there will be minimal cases in a month or so.
Either he will be correct or not.
Everyone just needs to calm down, cut out the name calling and finger pointing and wait to see what happens.
I've kept this 70-day idea in my mind since it was published.
If you go to the statistics site maintained by Johns Hopikins, located here, you can find daily case charts for every country. (Look in the lower right hand corner, select the rightmost tab.)
Almost every country exhibits a 60 to 80 day width on their occurrences tab, taken at about 1/3 of the maximum level.
Interestingly, there is one glaring exception--Iran. They have a very substantial second bump going, although it seems like it will be of shorter duration than the first one.
Note that the following FR thread indicates that flu was “playing itself out” no later than April 10th of this year, the date of the referenced article.
US flu activity slides, death toll holds steady at 24K (April 10, 2020)
And since SARS-CoV-2 has a longer incubation / infectious period than flu, I’m not surprised that infected people carried it around for a little longer.
Insights welcome.
RE: But I’d appreciate a more scientifically-based explanation like warmer weather triggering vitamin D production or something.
Well, one way to look at it is to OBSERVE the disease progression in TROPICAL countries — places where SUMMER is practically year round -— Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and even Hawaii in the USA.
“How do they know there will be a second wave? And how do they know that it will come in the winter?” ... since he crunched figures on the pandemic some six weeks ago and publicized his theory that COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days, he has been vindicated — and concluded that the “hysteria” he sees around him is “as contagious as biological diseases.” ... “There is a natural assumption that fewer infections means fewer deaths but it’s not correct,” he said, arguing: “There is no explainable relationship between the number of people infected and the number of people who die. The ratio between deaths and infections differs sometimes by a factor of 100 or more between different countries.”
This guy is an actual scientist! Aren’t we supposed to believe the science?
Nyaaaaaa not so much. I suppose you could say per-capita maybe.
Lots of bright hard-working folks there but show me the number of Israeli new chemical entities leading to new therapeutics in the US... not so much.
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