Infectious disease modeling study casts doubt on impact of Justinianic plague

EurekAlert! ^ | May 1, 2020 | University of Maryland

[SunkenCiv]

Many have claimed the Justinianic Plague (c. 541-750 CE) killed half of the population of Roman Empire. Now, historical research and mathematical modeling challenge the death rate and severity of this first plague pandemic...

White and Mordechai focused their efforts on the city of Constantinople, capital of the Roman Empire, which had a comparatively well-described outbreak in 542 CE. Some primary sources claim plague killed up to 300,000 people in the city, which had a population of some 500,000 people at the time. Other sources suggest the plague killed half the empire's population. Until recently, many scholars accepted this image of mass death. By comparing bubonic, pneumonic, and combined transmission routes, the authors showed that no single transmission route precisely mimicked the outbreak dynamics described in these primary sources.

[SunkenCiv]

• Ancient Russian Black Death victims reveal plague spread 1,000 years earlier than previously thought [1800 BC]

• Unusual climate during Roman times plunged Eurasia into hunger and disease [2018]
• Plague 'hiding in plain sight', warn scientists [2018]
• Maybe Rats Aren't to Blame for the Black Death [2018]
• DANCING WITH DEATH Plague is spreading because relatives are digging up their Black Death dead [2017]
• Old trees reveal Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) around 1,500 years ago [2016]
• Did famine worsen the Black Death? [2016]
• Plague Infected Humans Much Earlier Than Previously Thought [2015]
• The Mutant Genes Behind the Black Death [2015]
• Victims of the Great Plague 'discovered' at Liverpool Street station [2015]
• Rats reprieved as giant gerbils are blamed for the Black Death [2015]
• Experts raise alarm as plague kills dozens in Madagascar [2015]
• Is Ebola the Same Virus as the Black Death? Historical Similarities are Striking [2014]
• Was Ebola Behind the Black Death? [2014]
• Could the Black Death Actually Have Been an Ebola-like Virus? [2014]
• New study sheds light on survivors of the Black Death [2014]
• Black Death skeletons unearthed by Crossrail project [2014]
• Black Death may have scuppered Roman Empire [2014]
• Plague decoded: Researchers link 2 of the most devastating pandemics in history [2014]
• Why Halley's Comet May Be Linked to Famine 1,500 Years Ago [2013]
• How The Bubonic Plague Actually Saved Europe In The 14th Century (Finance) [2013]
• Medieval plague victims unearthed in City of London square [2013]
• Comet smashes triggered ancient famine [ March 536 AD ] [2009]
• Black Death Targeted The Weak [2008]
• Medieval DNA, Modern Medicine (Lessons From The Black Death) [2007]
• Black Death Casts A genetic Shadow Over England [2007]
• An Empire's Epidemic (Justinian Plague) [2006]
• Europe's Chill Linked To Disease (Black Death Caused Little Ice Age?) [2006]
• Medieval Plague May Explain Resistance to HIV [2005]
• Global Warming and Global Cooling are as Old as the Black Plague [2005]
• Black Death Mutant Gene Resists AIDS, Say Scientists (Virus) [2005]
• Italian Skeletons Reveal Old World Diseases [2004]
• Infectious Pests [2003]
• The viruses are out there, and they are out to get us [2003]
• Black Death 'Was Not Plague' Say Experts [2002]

[SunkenCiv]

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Justinian's Flea: The First Great Plague and the End of the Roman Empire by William Rosen Kindle edition website FAQ

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[SunkenCiv]

[Grimmy]

Can’t question the models.

As we know from recent and current events, models are never wrong.

[LouieFisk]

The Romans would have managed it better if only they would have had celebrities sing “Imagine” to the plebeians from their posh villas.

[SunkenCiv]

• Infectious disease modeling study casts doubt on impact of Justinianic plague [2020]
• Two volcanoes trigger crises of the late antiquity [2016]
• The Justinian Plague of 562 A.D. an Electromagnetic Drama? [2015]
• Black Death may have scuppered Roman Empire [2014]
• Why Halley's Comet May Be Linked to Famine 1,500 Years Ago [2013]
• Comet smashes triggered ancient famine [ March 536 AD ] [2009]
• WERE THE DARK AGES REALLY DARK? [2002]
• The Dark Ages: Were They Darker Than We Imagined? [2002]

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Chris Murray was the head of the Institutum Enim et Metrics Salutem Volutpat in Rome. His model at the time was very accurate and should not be doubted.

[nwrep]

Fauci told the Romans to quarantine and it killed the empire.

[SunkenCiv]

Plague of Justinian, sorted:

• "Work of Every Description Ceased" ~ First hand accounts of the Plague of Justinian, 6th century AD [2020]
• Plague in humans 'twice as old' but didn't begin as flea-borne, ancient DNA reveals [2019]
• Plague Infected Humans Much Earlier Than Previously Thought [2015]
• The Next Pandemic [2014]
• Plague decoded: Researchers link 2 of the most devastating pandemics in history [2014]
• Deadly Black Death bug hasn't changed, but we have [2011]
• Black Death Bacterium Identified: Genetic Analysis of Medieval Plague Skeletons... [2011]
• Cause of the big plague epidemic of Middle Ages identified [2010]
• Study of ancient and modern plagues finds common features [2008]
• Plague Victims Discovered After 1500 Years (Justinian) [2008]
• The Chances Of Surviving The Black Death [2008]
• Clues to Black Plague's Fury in 650-Year-Old Skeletons [2008]
• Medieval DNA, Modern Medicine (Lessons From The Black Death) [2007]
• Black Death Casts A genetic Shadow Over England [2007]
• Lost documents shed light on Black Death [2007]
• Europe's Chill Linked To Disease (Black Death Caused Little Ice Age?) [2006]
• Medieval Plague May Explain Resistance to HIV [2005]
• Black Death Mutant Gene Resists AIDS, Say Scientists (Virus) [2005]
• Bubonic Plague Traced To Ancient Egypt (Black Death) [2004]
• The viruses are out there, and they are out to get us [2003]
• Medieval Black Death Was Probably Not Bubonic Plague [2002]
• Black Death 'Was Not Plague' Say Experts [2002]

[grey_whiskers]

Remember what Nobel Prize winning Theoretical Physicist Dick Feynman said:

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your experimental data is, it doesn't matter if you are an eyewitness. If it doesn't agree with the model, it's wrong."

[SunkenCiv]

Ernest Lawrence, a pure experimentalist... said, "Don't you worry about it -- the theorists will find a way to make them all the same." -- Alvarez by Luis Alvarez (page 184)

[SunkenCiv]

LOL

[grey_whiskers]

Question: Are all odd numbers prime?

Biologist: Yes. All odd numbers are prime.
Mathematician: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, so yes, by mathematical induction, all odd numbers are prime.
Experimental Physicist: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, 9 is not prime, 11 is prime, 13 is prime, so, within experimental error, all odd numbers are prime.
Engineer: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, 9 is prime, 11 is prime, 13 is prime, 15 is prime, 17 is prime, 19 is prime, yes, all odd numbers are prime.
Womyn’s Studies Major: Did you just assume its cardinality?

[SunkenCiv]

:^) Not to quibble, but 9 and 15 are not prime.

[silverleaf]

Bump

Great topic

[silverleaf]

Bump

Great topic

[SoCal Pubbie]

You mean Fauci Gluteus Maximus, the infamous soothsayer from Alexandria?

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks! My only reservation is their use of "Justinianic" -- sounds like a Disney Channel or Nick at Night version of a plague.