Corona Virus Daily Thread #48 COVID-19 4/25/2020

many | 4/25/2020 | many

[RaceBannon]

New Thrtead, starting 4/25/2020

[PGalt]

Good stuff. Another piece in the timeline puzzle. Thanks.

[LilFarmer]

I think whole “curve” idea should not be determined on a nationwide level, but rather on a county or regional level. One city may be decreasing, while another is ramping up. I wish these governors would look at things that way too, and mitigate the spread area by area. If you have an area ramping up, shut it down and stop travel in/out of that county for a couple of weeks.

I don’t understand how shutting a whole state (except schools and large public events) makes sense, all they would have to do is limit travel in/out of areas hard hit at the time.

[TomGuy]

Quarantine blues?

An interlude with the Statler Brothers: Flowers on the Wall

https://youtu.be/OiUW0q0UnUI

[LilFarmer]

I’m worried about the food supply at the moment. I suggest people top off meat during the next week or so. If you can afford it go in with some folks and buy a cow from a local farmer, and have it butchered at a small shop.

It’s actually better (if you get grass fed) and cheaper in the long run anyway. We do a whole cow every 2 years for a family of 4.

[BenLurkin]

Brazil becoming coronavirus hot spot as testing falters, hospitals on verge of collapse
https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/brazil-becoming-coronavirus-hot-spot-as-testing-falters/

So far, the health ministry has confirmed … more than 3,600 deaths.

Scientists from the University of Sao Paulo, University of Brasilia and other institutions say the true number of people infected with the virus as of this week is probably as much as 587,000 to 1.1 million people

by: Associated Press
Posted: Apr 24, 2020 / 07:26 PM PDT

[null and void]

OFFICIALLY Brazil only has ≈54000 confirmed cases.

[BenLurkin]

‘No Evidence’ That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says

April 25, 2020·11:06 AM ET

The World Health Organization has pushed back against the theory that individuals can only catch the coronavirus once, as well as proposals for reopening society that are based on this supposed immunity.

In a scientific brief dated Friday, the United Nations agency said the idea that one-time infection can lead to immunity remains unproven and is thus unreliable as a foundation for the next phase of the world’s response to the pandemic.

“Some governments have suggested that the detection of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, could serve as the basis for an ‘immunity passport’ or ‘risk-free certificate’ that would enable individuals to travel or to return to work assuming that they are protected against re-infection,” the WHO wrote. “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”

The statement comes days after Chile announced it would begin issuing immunity cards that effectively act as passports, allowing travelers to clear security at airports with a document that purportedly shows they have recovered from the virus. Authorities and researchers in other countries — such as France and the United Kingdom — have expressed interest in similar ideas, while some officials in the U.S., such as Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, have mentioned it as one possible facet of a reopening strategy.

The concept for such a card is largely based on the premise that an individual can only contract the coronavirus once before developing the necessary antibodies to fight it off. That premise undergirds another common theory: the concept, known as herd immunity, that if enough people have been infected with the coronavirus — and are therefore immune — its transmission will slow and the risks of infection will diminish even for those who haven’t caught it yet.

But these ideas depend to a large degree on the supposition that one cannot catch the coronavirus a second time — an idea that world health authorities said leaders should not count on right now. As of Friday, the WHO said, “No study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.”

What’s more, data reported from the world’s early COVID-19 hot spots, such as South Korea and China, have shown that a growing number of recovered patients appear to have suffered a relapse of the disease.

By mid-April, Korean health authorities said that just over 2% of the country’s recovered patients were in isolation again after testing positive a second time. And in Wuhan, China, data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for observation after their discharge from hospitals, show that about 5% to 10% of patients pronounced “recovered” have tested positive again.

It remains unclear why this is occurring — whether it is a sign of a second infection, a reactivation of the remaining virus in the body or the result of an inaccurate antibody test.

Dozens of antibody tests for the novel coronavirus are already on the market, with varying degrees of reliability and accuracy. House Democrats have launched an investigation into the antibody tests and whether the Food and Drug Administration should increase its enforcement of them, according to CNN.

“At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an ‘immunity passport’ or ‘risk-free certificate,’ “ the WHO warned.

“People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission.”

[BenLurkin]

More infected means lower death ratio, yes?

[Black Agnes]

Because in spite of ‘lockdown’, people just mass congregated at walmart and other ‘open’ stores every day. Bored? Plop the family in the car and everybody go to walmart and troll the electronics department with 100 of your best friends and neighbors.

Just moved the spreading from the barber shops, beauty parlors and sitdown restaurants to the electronics department at walmart.

The day after ‘we’ locked down, the closest walmart was completely packed, parking lot completely full, cars parked on the side of the road up and down. More crowded than black Friday has ever been. Entire families going shopping. Including the grandparents. Masses of people loitering about outside the store in giant gaggles of disease transmission. Because with nowhere ELSE left to go and walmart on the list of ‘essential’ stores, that’s what went for entertainment.

Result? Walmart will have a stellar quarter. The little mom/pop shops that were closed? probably out of business. The virus? not slowed down one bit, just changed lanes from transmission avenues A to transmission avenues B.

Overall result? People conclude the lockdowns didn’t work.

[BenLurkin]

CDC adds six more symptoms for coronavirus
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494640-cdc-adds-six-more-symptoms-for-coronavirus

The new symptoms for the disease are chills, repeated shaking with chills, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, and new loss of taste or smell...The list already included fever, cough and shortness of breath...

The CDC said that anyone who has trouble breathing, persistent pain or pressure in their chest, new confusion or inability to arouse, or bluish lips or face should seek immediate medical attention.

Other symptoms of the highly infectious virus include diarrhea, skin rash, runny nose, red eyes and fatigue.

Tal Axelrod - 04/25/20 10:25 AM EDT

[Paul R.]

It means a lower IFR, or EIFR (Estimated Infections Fatality Rate) if you will, but the daily numbers of serious, critical, and fatal cases are unchanged. They are what they are. Presently, US daily fatalities are around 2k and not showing any real signs of diminishing soon.

[cgbg]

My favorite model (the first Imperial College model—https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) anticipated significant “leakage” even under a “shutdown” scenario.

“Leakage” is not all bad—it means that the virus spreads through the population, but at a manageable rate (from the point of view of hospitalization rates).

The whole “shutdown”, “no shutdown” debate is a major oversimplification in my view.

“Shutdown” states like my CT have a lot of leakage and economic activity going on—”non shutdown” states still ban large crowds, have social distancing, and now have many folks using care (including masks at this point).

One of my big disappointments with most Freepers is that they cannot seem to understand the complexities of what is actually going on past the headlines.

[amorphous]

Looking at Worldometer’s USA page, we’ve definitely “flattened the curve” but either by daily new cases or daily new deaths, I see NO indication that overall the daily new deaths are going DOWN. Instead, we have a sustained fatality rate of approx. 2k per day. So, we are “holding our own but bleeding” with present social distancing and restrictions in place. Trying to see into the future, yesterday was the highest number of new US cases yet.

Hey Paul, I've been tracking case and fatalities since 18 March. To know the future, watch the case numbers. Except for a cure, or a mutation which affects the lethality of the virus, the number of deaths will follow the number of cases in large part by about 14 days, base on my observation.

In the graph below, see where the red line drops on 17 April, after a number of days at a steady rate. In about 14 days, or the beginning of May, this should translate to a daily drop in the rate of new deaths by about 25%+-.

Basically, unless something changes significantly for the better, it looks to me as if we could be easily looking at 100k total fatalities by the end of May. Perhaps more.

Can someone please show a data trend to convince me otherwise? :-(

My last projection:

[amorphous]

Good work maintaining that list as a reference, though. My suggestion would be to add just a couple of the most reputable reference links at the top (or bottom), JHU map and Worldometer USA CV page, for example?

I'd like to second the above comment. Awesome list of great links, Race!

Might I suggest placing you list of links on your home/bio page with a well advertised link from future coronavirus threads to your massive and very informative links?

This will save you some work, as well as cut back on the scrolling folks have to do to get past this section of coronavirus threads for those not so interested, and just wanting to get the latest.

Just my 2 cents...for what it's worth...:)

[Black Agnes]

Agree.

People that conclude ‘shutdown didn’t work’ don’t realize that we weren’t really ‘shutdown’ like they were in China.

It’s a travesty that we sacrificed the small businesses for the sake of Amazon and walmart.

[LilFarmer]

As chaotic as it is in Brazil right now we don’t know the true death toll either. No way to know what the CFR really is.

[metmom]

Andromeda Strain?

[metmom]

I don’t understand how shutting a whole state (except schools and large public events) makes sense, all they would have to do is limit travel in/out of areas hard hit at the time.

A one size fits all lock down does not work.

NYC and it's surrounding areas is a good example.

Much of Upstate NY is very desolate. The Adirondack Park is 25 % of the land mass of the state. Hardly anyone lives up there, especially in the winter.

Many parts of the state have low or no cases and/or deaths.

To impose the lock down on the whole state based on what's happening in NYC is extremely short sighted and screams tyranny, which we all knew about Cuomo anyways.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

That explains a lot of the strange deaths in China where people where falling over in the streets.

Could be from sudden strokes caused by such accelerated clotting.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

How are YOU doing, by the way? Were they able to fix your tooth?