“The expectation of market participants is that we’re in the Great Depression and that in a sense, the news can’t get much worse,” said BNY Mellon chief strategist Alicia Levine.Posted on 04/24/2020 7:02:08 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Please, please, wake up. A calamity far worse than coronavirus itself is at hand.
Frightening as the death toll from the virus is, a more terrifying consequence looms: a depression, and a major one.
If you think that’s exaggeration, it’s because expert opinion and news on the economy is drowned out by “frightening, click-bait headlines” that are “not useful” on meaningless numbers.
The assessments from sources of all political stripes are everywhere, though you won’t see them mentioned by politicians or most of the media the general public reads. Here are a few:
“We are experiencing an economic contraction that is faster and deeper than anything we have seen in the past century, or possibly several centuries,” Bank of England interest-rate setter Jan Vlieghe said. [Emphasis added.]
The coronavirus collapse has the ingredients to surpass the disaster of the 1930s…. Let’s hope this depression won’t last a decade, but an unprecedented slump followed by years of pain seems inevitable, said a Bloomberg commentary.
From economist Nouriel Roubini: “The best economic outcome that anyone can hope for is a recession deeper than that following the 2008 financial crisis. But given the flailing policy response so far, the chances of a far worse outcome are increasing by the day.”
“Forget recession, this is a depression,” says the left wing Guardian.
The coronavirus pandemic will push the global economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression, with the world’s poorest countries suffering the most, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
“The expectation of market participants is that we’re in the Great Depression and that in a sense, the news can’t get much worse,” said BNY Mellon chief strategist Alicia Levine.
“At this point it would take a miracle to keep this recession from turning into the Great Depression II,” says Chris Rupkey, of Mitsubishi’s economic unit.
We are fighting the last war. Politicians and most of the press talk incessantly about “the curve” on virus infections, the point of which was to ensure that hospital capacity wasn’t exceeded. But we already won that, having excess capacity that is growing every day.
It’s time to bend different, more terrifying curves. Here’s one. It’s unemployment claims, from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank:
Unemployment is likely already at Great Depression-era highs.
And take no solace from the stock market, which has held up quite well. It’s artificially pumped up by Federal Reserve Bank stimulants. The reality for most Americans is very different, which was captured beautifully on a screenshot from earlier this month showing the market soaring while unemployment surged:
To contain or head off the looming depression, our policy on the Wuhan Virus must change immediately. Two Stanford experts summarized the right approach as follows:
The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy like some outlined in the first place: Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation. Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter.
Please, please wake up.
Important article.
Thx for posting it.
I work professionally with finance and economics
Less than 20% of people are wage earners in this country to the degree that their productivity equals livelihood.
These are the backbone of the nation. This virus hoax is attacking them.
My stay at home wife, raising 2 kids and 2 dogs doesn’t understand that our nation can’t survive a lockdown. Meanwhile when I tell her that her 5000 per month allowance is going to 4500, she screams bloody murder.
Her allowance doesn’t cover mortgage, healthcare., car payments
She is part of America’s society that think money grows on trees, or the govt can print unlimited iou’s
There are a few dozen people here at least that would argue that we’re not doing enough staying at home. I don’t get them either.
I don’t even know how they ended up on Free Republic.
My 87 year-old mother is tougher than them. We need to get the country back to work. Protect the old and infirm. But nevertheless get everyone back to work regardless of the cost of lives.
Or the number that will be lost will dwarf those numbers.
We’ve got about 500,000 confirmed cases in this country (and God knows how many actual cases). Do we have any idea HOW those people CAUGHT the virus? If someone would report that, in addition to all the preexisting conditions that are particularly affected, we could factor that into the reopening scheme.
BUT NO. Everyone just wants to report on what they hear at Trump’s press conference and how “stupid” he is.
A depression is the Democrats dream come true.
After eight weeks of conditioning, governors should end all restrictions on companies and individuals, and allow personal responsibility to guide our actions.
The Democrats are pushing hard for a Great Depression II so that they can ride into the WH and both Houses and stay there, either in November or or years later. If the economy continues to dive no matter how much new money is printed they will get it this year in a perfect situation, with an ideal situation- President Biden being operated by an informal(for the nonce) Politburo.
It could backfire on them big time. Each day more and more people are taking to the streets, and they're not demonstrating against President Trump.
it’s irrelevant how many confirmed cases there are. meaningless drivel.
tens of millions of Americans get the flu each year. 40-60,000 or thereabouts die. it may end up being similar for covid19.
no-one would ever think of shutting down the entire economy for the flu season?
the testing is another scam. of course, there will be many more cases confirmed as the country opens up, and the FakeNewsMSM/Dems will exploit every last one of them.
too bad. re-open America.
the wimps are destroying us with their petulance....
Absolutely. It’s exactly what they want.
At this point it doesn’t matter. There is no magic wand that will restore the American economy to pre-CV levels before the election. If all the shutdowns were lifted tomorrow how many people will go back to their daily lives as if nothing has happened? Some will and some won’t. Maybe 40% continue to self-quarantine and the rest return to work. What business can survive with only 60% of their customer base while paying the same expenses as before (inventory, payroll, utilities)? Many businesses will go under anyway. You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink. You can lift the shutdowns but things will not go back to normal until the virus is sufficiently contained. At over 38,000 new cases just within the last 24 hours I’m not convinced we’re there yet.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The virus will transmit faster among those who do venture out so after a temporary boost immediately following the end of the shutdown the economy will tank again as more people get sick and stay home anyway, to say nothing of those that end up in the hospital or the morgue. We will have the worst of both worlds, the high CV death toll AND the economic depression. Governors who lifted lockdowns prematurely will face an uphill re-election battle if their state enters the above scenario. Given the choice between 2 really bad outcomes I choose the one that will lead to fewer American deaths. We don’t have to wait until a vaccine is developed but we should wait until we have more tests and contact tracing programs in place so we can quarantine intelligently.
Unfortunately, the longer this shutdown goes, the stupider he looks. This nation responded to the request of the White House to stay home and "flatten the curve" so as to allow medical ability the opportunity to catch up with medical need. This has been accomplished. Anyone who catches this virus can be assured of proper treatment and if needed, a ventilator. Anyone who catches this virus has a medicine that can cure them in short order for the most part. Getting this nation into this posture was a tremendous accomplishment by the President and his team. We no longer need to fear this virus to the point of keeping our economy under lock and key. It is now just like any other illness we might face, which is treatable and curable.
Trump did what we expect a President to do getting us here. He needs to realize that this is all he will ever be able to do, and cease trying to be our doctor with all this new "testing" shit. Anger all across the country is growing at the ridiculous position we find ourselves in because of dishonest and exaggerated "models" and the longer this is drawn out the more it will result in anger at Trump himself. He needs to declare victory in the "flatten the curve" goal and get rid of the scarf lady and shorty pants and do everything HE, as President, can do to encourage a return to normalcy. Pronto.
They want a Depression; it keeps people dependent on them, and it is their only hope of winning the election.
They care only about power.
Progressives lack compassion and tolerance. Their self-aggrandizement is all that matters.
I don’t even know how they ended up on Free Republic.
They're called "Fearpers." Type "Fearper" into the search box and you'll come up with dozens of threads.
Did you consuli Fauci before making that bold statement?
>>It could backfire on them big time.<<
What could possibly be worse than what is happening? How could itpossibly backfire? The RATS have what they always wanted — the destruction of the Republic.
Some of us old farts who fall into their at risk category did not ask for nor do we want government protection. Open up the economy completely and leave us alone. We’ve survived as long as we have by living our lives and knowing what precautions to take to protect ourselves. We don’t need medical “experts” or politicians to tell us how to live.
I saw politico’s charts breaking down deaths per state of covid vs the 10 year average of influenza deaths. California for example has about 1600 deaths compared with a 10 year average of 4700 influenza deaths. Were we all wearing masks in the last 10 years..shutting down restaurants and sporting events? The media have promoted the panic and fear to an A+ scale. The chickens may always be chickens so we must move past them. Time to open things up. Sure a few people will die, as a few will contract influenza, or cancer or heart disease.
The numbers aren’t as scary as the news.
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