Because the chicoms lie. They had it X times worse than us.
Remember, this wasn’t started by some lone sailor that stumbled off a ship in Seattle. It was started by tens of thousands of infected CHinese who traveled here after their New Year celebration in Wuhan. How did that impact “the models”? In a “negative way?”
The virus started in China in November or December. We didn't shut off flights from China until January 31. The virus was spread by people.
The Chinese data are bogus. No one believes they are valid. The real numbers are probably exponentially worse.
Not arguing in favor of any present statistics, but here is how it works.
On, say 1 March you have 1 case. A week later you have 10 cases, a week later 100 cases, a week later 1000 cases, a week later 10000 case, a week later 100,000 cases, a week later 1,000,000 case and a week later .... well we don't know because somewhere in there we and everyone else in the world started exercising various forms of social distancing [even the Swedes].
But that is what happens with exponential multiplication.
Try this at home. Fold a sheet of paper in half and then again and again. How many times before it is so thick you can't fold it any more.
Even Andrew Cuomo gets it about exponential growth - "we have beaten this back to where one person infects .9 other people" and we are coping. If one person invfects 1.1 other people this explodes out of control."
Once you get your head around all of that, then the reported numbers make sense. Are they right? Well, there is some evidence that there were random cases, and death earlier than we knew. There is evidence that we are not finding our counting all the cases.
We can fix that. With a few thousand random but accurate across the nation serology tests looking for antibodies we can get a pretty accurate estimate of just how far this spread. With some DNA studies on evolution we can get a good idea about how long it's been here and where it came from (e.g. China vs Italy, vs).
But the numbers are not nonsense.
Someone’s lying? Hmmm....
It is not the same virus. Papers from Forster (UK) and Li show that there are different strains, the Asian strain is considerably less aggressive (per Li estimate, 270 times less).
The European strain is the one that is killing on the East Coast, it is the aggressive one.
To think that the Chinese hide the deaths is naive, one would then have to explain why the South Koreans and Vietnamese got off so easily too.... and they did better than China! Answer -- the same weak strain.
I look at another question. How are the numbers in SE Asia and South Asia so low. Vietnam is a case in point. Its numbers are infintesimal. Yet it borders China. Does business with China . India as well. Thailand, even Pakistan. It cannot all be accounted for by infrastrucure deficiencies. You cannot ignore dead bodies. India has one third the deaths on NY’s Nassau County.
No idea what you’re trying to say.
The upshot is we don't even know where we are at. When the dust settles it is going to take months of analysis to back the BS out of the reported numbers and come up with a realistic picture of what happened. Right now, it is just chaos and spin by the leftists who want this to appear far worse than it really is, and tank the economy in yet another attempt to thwart President Trump's MAGA agenda.
Remove NY/NJ from the equation because that one hot zone is half the numbers.
Mass transit wasn’t shut down and they’re sending positive cases back to nursing homes. They’ve played every game they can to make this as bad as possible. Saves them money and makes the national numbers worse which reflects on national leadership aka Trump. Win win for them.
Almost nothing make sense when it comes to this virus. It is becoming obvious to me that this whole pandemic is being used to rid the world of PDJT. The Dems, Media, the whole NIH, and the globalists (Gates, Soros, etc.) are conspiring to achieve this end. It is one hell of an uphill battle for Trump.
First, don’t look at cases. Cases means number tested, not numbers who have the virus. Cases means nothing unless they are randomized. And in randomized studies of antibodies in small populations, there are far more cases than anyone admits to. At the low end its 10 times more cases. And at the high end its 100 times more cases. Like the study in one California county by Stanford found 40 to 85 times more cases than reported.
So you should be looking at deaths per million population in first world countries. Europe is especially analogous to the US. Asian countries like South Korea Taiwan and Japan are Islands. They are also homogeneous. So they can control their population more. Europe has lots of ports of entry.
In Europe the deaths are somewhere between 600 at the high end to 60 at the low end for large countries that can be trusted to give reliable numbers. Reliable numbers are numbers that count deaths. But that does not mean they are all the same. There are deaths with comorbidities. And there are deaths in the presence of the virus. And their are deaths which have not been tested but circumstances or symptoms lead healthcare workers to assume the virus was most likely present even if there was no test to verify.
Hiding old people and people at risk while doing nothing else, you could look at Sweden and get 192 deaths per million. Germany did some more. Hide the old people and do small lock downs. They are at 63 deaths per million. Italy and Spain locked down after the virus was fully taken hold. They are around 450 deaths per million. The US is around 144 deaths per million. We are on the low side. Only Germany has fewer.
But you need to look at the states. In New York state the deaths per million are over a thousand. Next door in Jersey they are 570 per million. Between them they have more than 50% of all the cases in the US. And these two states did not record cases earlier than other states. So how is New York state fatality rate 2 to 10 times more than most other states and most other countries. There are two likely scenarios. New York is counting more deaths by counting deaths in the most liberal manner possible. And that is true. And their subway system and density may have spread the virus far more completely than the rest of the world. This can only be true if you believe New York was especially bad and late when it comes to shutting down. And that is demonstrably true as well.
New York did encourage people to go out and “enjoy the restaurants, and use the subways” right up to mid-March when virtually everyone else was closing down. And the counting of virus fatalities could be explained as attention grabbing, to get more support from the federal government and to make Trump look bad. Both encourage liberal fatality counting.
The virus is the same everywhere. So the strategy that seems to work the best is hiding the vulnerable and lightly locking down the worst behavior like large crowds and unprotected mass transit. Severe lock downs just get smacked by second waves, like in China, Singapore and Japan. And doing nothing can overwhelm the health system, like in Italy and Spain. Hiding the vulnerable and lightly locking down, saves the health system and quickly establishes herd immunity without destroying the economy.
We should open up. We will get a light second wave. But we can easily handle it now. The vulnerable should continue to hide as much as they can.
Communist countries can shut things down way better than we can. Also they can lie about the stats way better. Our numbers really aren’t unfathomable. They’re basically the numbers you get when a nasty cold or flu runs through. The only difference is we’re paying attention. Usually we don’t.
You cited as your source for what you posted, but the latter is actually a comments and not the article. Nonetheless, aside from the data that you question, it does state this which is relevant to your question:
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...] - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison
