Flubros! Day 27 (a place for Flubros and Flubras)

www.freerepublic.com ^ | 15 April 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

It’s just the flu, bro.

It’s time for the tyranny to end. Let free people do as they please. Politicians need help/pressure so that they know what to do. They are a bunch of sheep and cowards. Really impressed with the protests we are seeing...I hope it makes a difference. I pictured protesting to be more the passion of the left but if you keep productive people from working they find the time to protest too. These protesters are helping us.

The numbers are full of lies - follow the money.

[exDemMom]

Yesterday’s number of new cases were UP! I have no idea how they were talking with optimism at the press conference. We have been holed up AND numbers are RISING!

The number of cases has been up every day. However, the statistic to look at is how many new cases there are today, as compared to past days. The rate of new cases has actually been dropping since quarantine has been instituted. Another consideration is that the incubation period is from 2 to 14 days, so the falling rate of growth reflects events that occurred up to 2 weeks ago. We should see further drops in the rate of growth as the social distancing measures continue.

[exDemMom]

IIRC, you have been corrected on this before. That fatality rate is simply spurious since it apparently overall only those who are sick and deemed worthy to be tested are tested , thus these are most likely to die. In contrast, extensive random testing shows the infection % to be much higher in relation to population and deaths, while the rate of flu infections as a % of population is higher than for Covid.

I have *never* been corrected by anyone who is actually an expert in this area (which I am). All I have seen here is a lot of people who, for whatever reason, do not take Covid-19 seriously, completely ignoring the scientific data and instead grasping at pronouncements issued by thinktanks and media figures who have NO experience in any aspect of public health.

In an epidemiological investigation, investigators trace the movements of a known case to identify others whom may have been exposed. As of this morning, 3,262,921 people in the US have been tested, and 640,291 cases have been identified. Those people with a risk of exposure are then tested. The fact that an excess of people have been tested as compared to those who turned out positive shows that cases are not being missed.

The worldwide death rate as of today is 139,469 deaths per 2,090,110 cases, or 6.67%. In the US, the death rate is 31,015 deaths per 640,291 cases, or 4.84%. Both worldwide and US death rates continue to rise. This is a simple and basic mathematical calculation, using the current numbers published by Johns Hopkins.

[exDemMom]

“this is 66 times more deadly.”
That’s so funny. Drop your TV remote and slowly step away from CNN.

I don't watch CNN. Or any other news. I go directly to the data sources and keep track of the numbers. I have been following the numbers very carefully since Mar 12--doing the same work I would have been doing if I were still working in this field instead of being recently retired. This morning, the Covid-19 death rate reached 6.648%. The average mortality from seasonal flu is 0.1%. 6.648/0.1=66.48%, which I rounded to 66.

[exDemMom]

its morons like YOU that cause panic, so just go hide in your hole useful idiot.

Who is trying to cause panic?

If I tell you not to enter the reaction chamber of a nuclear power plant, am I fearmongering or am I warning you of a real danger and urging you to take precautions?

People who do not understand the danger and scoff at it are the most dangerous people around. They're like the guy in Mexico who found a pretty blue powder in a vial and took it home, only to end up exposing many members of his family (including himself, IIRC) to lethal doses of radiation.

Your inability to take a dangerous situation seriously does not make it safe.

I provide information because I am trying to empower people to keep themselves safe.

[Shethink13]

We will NEVER know an actual death rate because the testing was so effed up out of the gate. Antibody testing 350 million people is a logistical impossibility and will never happen (though I suspect that eventually we’ll have a big enough sample to prove that the early modeling on this was crap).

You know, in truth antibody testing a very large percentage of the population would not be that difficult. The test kits that have been developed for this are no more difficult to perform than an at-home pregnancy test. If people were allowed to purchase these test kits over-the-counter for themselves I'm sure many would test themselves.

The problem lies with the inability of the "proper authorities" to be able to track the population if people are doing this in the privacy of their own homes.

Looks like the great HIPAA rules that were started during the AIDS epidemic in order to protect the gay community from discrimination has lived out it's usefulness.

An interesting side thought about that - the movie "Philadelphia" was probably the biggest factor in shaping public acceptance of the need for HIPAA. And who was the star of that movie? Tom Hanks - first big celebrity to claim he was a victim of COVID?

[Buckeye McFrog]

Testing a representative sample of 20 or 30 million?
Sure, I believe that is doable.

Testing EVERY SINGLE PERSON in this country before it can reopen as certain posters keep suggesting? Absolute sophistry.

[daniel1212]

I have *never* been corrected by anyone who is actually an expert in this area (which I am). All I have seen here is a lot of people who, for whatever reason, do not take Covid-19 seriously, completely ignoring the scientific data and instead grasping at pronouncements issued by thinktanks and media figures who have NO experience in any aspect of public health.

In an epidemiological investigation, investigators trace the movements of a known case to identify others whom may have been exposed. As of this morning, 3,262,921 people in the US have been tested, and 640,291 cases have been identified. Those people with a risk of exposure are then tested. The fact that an excess of people have been tested as compared to those who turned out positive shows that cases are not being missed.

Haughty arrogant and wrong. You simply cannot present yourself as an expert and denigrate all who oppose you as completely ignoring the scientific data, when you base the Covid fatality rate only on confirmed cases, based upon the absurd premise that cases are not being missed. And reject other who can be "experts" as much as you but who, based on data, warn against the very things you are going:

But it seems you must consider the same people who provide some of your data as as being of those who "do not take Covid-19 seriously, completely ignoring the scientific data," since warn:

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present. 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison

And "According to Worldometer, an online statistics website run by an international team of developers and researchers that collates public health information published directly by each state, the U.S. has conducted about 2.5 million tests as of April 11. That equates to about 7,600 tests per one million people. Using that same scale that accounts for Iceland's population, Iceland has undertaken 100,000 tests per million people." - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/

And the report of that study in Iceland was one of the things (who allegedly ignore such) I provided in my response to you, of a country that has randomly “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world - and found that "about 50% of those who test positive for the virus are asymptomatic when they are tested." Which supports estimates that most who are infected don't need medical care, and those who are asymptomatic abound. Which drastically lowers the fatality rate of infections.

But who who cannot be reproved just ignored such .

For in addition, scientific data I also provided from the CDC also showed morality rates for the flu per state for 2018 (13 states above 17 per 100,000 total population) and for Covid here (now only 5 state above 17 per 100,000 people, as of April 16)

And that nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html

Of course, we have a ways to go before Covid deaths attain to the 1–4 million deaths that both the Asian flu and Hong Kong flu reached worldwide, though these levels are expected.

Such comparisons does not minimize Covid, but means that perspective is called for as regards response.

Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

Virus	Death Rate
Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)	2%*
SARS	9.6%
MERS	34%	- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison As of this morning, 3,262,921 people in the US have been tested, and 640,291 cases have been identified. Those people with a risk of exposure are then tested. You mean tested twice? And show documentation that it is not mainly those who have symptoms that make up the majority of postive cases since this documentation began.

[spacejunkie2001]

can you link me to a few articles showing hospitalizations and deaths missed the mark?

[impimp]

https://www.hpnonline.com/infection-prevention/screening-surveillance/article/21130206/covid19-predicted-to-infect-81-of-us-population-cause-22-million-deaths-in-us

2.2 million dead from CV...that is the fake unmitigated number...but you can tell from largely unmitigated Sweden and a few other countries that unmitigated wouldn’t be much different from mitigated.

[impimp]

https://www.hpnonline.com/infection-prevention/screening-surveillance/article/21130206/covid19-predicted-to-infect-81-of-us-population-cause-22-million-deaths-in-us

2.2 million dead from CV...that is the fake unmitigated number...but you can tell from largely unmitigated Sweden and a few other countries that unmitigated wouldn’t be much different from mitigated.

[spacejunkie2001]

this is actually helpful. Looking also for something recent that shows how wrong they were. Got anything handy? I’ve seen several over the last weeks but wanted to see if I missed any

[daniel1212]

can you link me to a few articles showing hospitalizations and deaths missed the mark?

Well, some research shows...

More than a dozen researchers predicted how the US's coronavirus outbreak will end. They estimated nearly 200,000 people could die by the end of the year....The most extreme model predicted that up to 1.2 million people could die. By comparison, a typical flu season in the US kills between 11,000 and 95,000 people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. .. But a model from the Imperial College of London estimated up to 2.2 million people could die if no actions were taken to stop transmission in the US...The disease modeler who conducted the survey, Thomas McAndrew, said he didn't ask researchers to account for social-distancing measures in their models, but researchers still had the option...But the Imperial College researchers also said three months of social-distancing measures — such as household quarantines, closures of all schools and universities, and the isolation of infected patients — could cut the number of US deaths in half. Even if all patients were able to receive treatment at hospitals, however, the researchers predicted that about 1.2 million people in the US could die. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-deaths-us-predictions-social-distancing-2020-3

https://www.hpnonline.com/infection-prevention/screening-surveillance/article/21130206/covid19-predicted-to-infect-81-of-us-population-cause-22-million-deaths-in-us

White House Projects 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. Coronavirus Deaths ‘This could be a hell of a bad two weeks,’ Trump warns, urging Americans to continue social-distancing measures https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coronavirus-count-excluded-infected-people-with-no-symptoms-11585650226

With Strict Social Distancing, U.S. COVID-19 Deaths May Total 100,000 March 30, 20207:16 AM ET Heard on Morning Edition https://www.npr.org/2020/03/30/823764157/with-strict-social-distancing-u-s-covid-19-deaths-may-total-100-000

The Imperial College model famously predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. in a do-nothing scenario, and more than 1 million even if quite aggressive mitigation measures were adopted. As of April 2, a survey of public-health officials summarized by FiveThirtyEight found a median projection of around 263,000 deaths. The new IHME model suggests an ultimate toll less than one-quarter that number, about one-20th the figure projected in the Imperial College’s “mitigation” scenario, and less than one-30th what was projected in their “do nothing” scenario. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/best-case-scenario-for-coronavirus.html

Fauci lowers U.S. coronavirus death forecast to 60,000, says social distancing is working Dan Keemahill, Erin Mansfield, Dinah Voyles Pulver, Nicholas Wu, Dian Zhang, USA TODAY 6 days ago https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fauci-lowers-us-coronavirus-death-forecast-to-60000-says-social-distancing-is-working/ar-BB12oHEl

The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Spread To Millions In The US. We Don’t Have Nearly Enough Hospital Beds If It Does. Models suggest that the US could be headed toward 150,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of the month, with only 45,000 ICU hospital beds nationwide. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/coronavirus-hospital-beds-icu

These Places Could Run Out of Hospital Beds as Coronavirus Spreads. March 17, 2020

In 40 percent of markets around the country, hospitals would not be able to make enough room for all the patients who became ill with Covid-19, even if they could empty their beds of other patients. That statistic assumes that 40 percent of adults become infected with the virus over 12 months, a scenario described as “moderate” by the team behind the calculations. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/upshot/hospital-bed-shortages-coronavirus.html

One of the most striking developments over the past two weeks is how quickly the estimates of death and hospitalizations from COVID-19 are being reduced....National Review's Andrew McCarthy notes that IHME has been revising its estimates for hospital beds (including ones in intensive care units [ICU]) and ventilators as well: On April 8, IHME reduced the total number of hospital beds it had predicted would be needed nationally by a remarkable 166,890—down to 95,202 from the 262,092 it had predicted less than a week earlier (i.e., it was nearly two-thirds off). The ICU projection over that same week was cut in half: to 19,816 on April 8, down from 39,727 on April 2. The projected need for ventilators also fell by nearly half, to 16,845 from 31,782....On March 30, University of Washington researchers projected that California would need 4,800 beds on April 3. In fact, the state needed 2,200. The same model projected that Louisiana would need 6,400; in fact, it used only 1,700. Even New York, the most stressed system in the country, used only 15,000 beds against a projection of 58,000. https://reason.com/2020/04/10/good-news-coronavirus-death-estimates-keep-shrinking/

Is California winning the battle against coronavirus spread? April 14, 2020 ...Gov. Gavin Newsom’s health agency provided The Bee with perhaps the most telling numbers yet that the state is staving off the surge of serious cases that overwhelmed hospitals in New York, China, Italy and Spain....If those numbers remain low, they will be far under projections from Newsom’s office that indicated the state would need to add more than 50,000 hospital beds to accommodate a surge in COVID-19 patients. So far in California, there have been more than 22,000 confirmed cases and 687 deaths, according to the latest data from the California Department of Public Health. https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article241973806.html

[MayflowerMadam]

“since I would have inhaled such a tiny amount, it isn’t enough to cause me to get sick, but maybe enough to build up a resistance.”

I believe that very same thing.

[spacejunkie2001]

really good stuff, thank you.

[Zhang Fei]

[Who is trying to cause panic?

If I tell you not to enter the reaction chamber of a nuclear power plant, am I fearmongering or am I warning you of a real danger and urging you to take precautions?

People who do not understand the danger and scoff at it are the most dangerous people around. They’re like the guy in Mexico who found a pretty blue powder in a vial and took it home, only to end up exposing many members of his family (including himself, IIRC) to lethal doses of radiation.

Your inability to take a dangerous situation seriously does not make it safe.

I provide information because I am trying to empower people to keep themselves safe. ]

---

Because of the scale of economic sacrifice involved, I expect we’ll have to go through at least one cycle of re-open, see the bodies stack up, recoil in horror and shut down again, before the electorate is convinced of the danger. Some people will be dug in deep, impervious to both numeric and historical data. It’s not merely a question of ability to comprehend - there’s also the matter of willingness to go beyond what is psychologically comfortable.

There’s also a kind of self-serving utilitarianism involved. Send the elderly out on those ice floes so I can keep myself in the style to which I have become accustomed.

In the twentieth century, some of the major advocates of utilitarianism were Communists. While a soft-hearted, soft-headed bourgeois Kantian moralist might think torture or mass murder were just wrong, a sophisticated dialectical thinker would realize that they’re OK as long as they’re carried out by a revolutionary vanguard to hasten the advent of utopia for hundreds of millions. You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs.

The history of Communism shows one of the big problems with utilitarianism. Even if you think it’s OK in principle to sacrifice the few for the many, you have to be leery of the fact that somehow it was the guys doing the utilitarian calculus who seemed to wind up with the omelet, such as it was, and other people’s eggs that got broken.

Robert Wright correctly emphasizes how much our moral judgements are likely to be skewed by self-serving self-deception. The commandment to maximize total happiness — subject to no side constraints on avoiding harm, leaving well-enough alone, and minding one’s own business — may allow an especially wide scope for screwing people over in the name of Doing Good.

[exDemMom]

Because of the scale of economic sacrifice involved, I expect we’ll have to go through at least one cycle of re-open, see the bodies stack up, recoil in horror and shut down again, before the electorate is convinced of the danger. Some people will be dug in deep, impervious to both numeric and historical data. It’s not merely a question of ability to comprehend - there’s also the matter of willingness to go beyond what is psychologically comfortable.

Unfortunately, you may be right. Too many people take for granted the relatively disease-free lifestyle that we have achieved through unceasing work. They also have no understanding of history, of just how devastating infectious diseases can be.

If a majority of people or even significant minority were to fail to grasp how serious Covid-19 really is, and balk at infection control measures as a result, a LOT of people will die. And I think the economic impact of millions of people dying will be far graver than the impact of observing quarantine measures. If we all work together, we will beat Covid-19; best case scenario is that we can eradicate it completely. The economy will come back (unless we let the left control it); lives will not.

[exDemMom]

You simply cannot present yourself as an expert and denigrate all who oppose you as completely ignoring the scientific data, when you base the Covid fatality rate only on confirmed cases, based upon the absurd premise that cases are not being missed.

I get you. You distrust the words of experts and dismiss anything that does not fit what you want to believe.

I highlighted that phrase, because that is what real scientists do. They look at actual data. Not wishful thinking. Not think tank pronouncements based on no evidence whatsoever. Not what people who have no expertise in the subject but who have a Nobel prize proclaim. But what actual scientists experienced in the field find through their observations and measurements.

Haughty arrogant and wrong.

Why, thank you for the kind words. Thank you for acknowledging that I know what I'm talking about, and you have no real refutation of any data and analysis that I have presented.

[abb]

You psycho paranois have lost. It’s over. The USA will survive, and so will mankind. Stop trying to infect everyone else with your sickness.

Deal with it.

[exDemMom]

You psycho paranois have lost. It’s over. The USA will survive, and so will mankind. Stop trying to infect everyone else with your sickness.

What sickness? The one that makes me worried about a virus that is as contagious as the common cold, but kills almost 7% of those it infects?

Oh, I have no doubt the US will survive. Even if millions of people die because people like you don't take the threat seriously. Losing that many in a short time will really sink the economy and change our culture, but yeah, something will emerge on the other end.

[abb]

You’re sick. Get help. Your kind HATE mankind. What a miserable life you must lead.