Posted on 04/12/2020 11:17:20 AM PDT by fightin kentuckian
I'm like most Freepers, I work, still have a job for now, and I save money to a 401k, IRA. My money is still right where it is when this current crash started, but a lot less of it.
The US debt is out of control and with these corona virus mega spending bills there is no way that the US will ever come out of debt. One day, the US economy will in fact crash from this mounting debt, it's inevitable given we are not deviating from our path. And when it all comes down it will make the virus crash look like a mild correction.
When that day comes the market will go to zero and banks will NOT give us our money. Everyone will default on their debts in order to hoard what little cash they have. Inflation will skyrocket, dogs and cats living together, Armageddon.
My question is what are you doing with your money to get ready for that day. What investments are you using? What do you recommend?
This is a serious thread so lets dispense with the lame jokes about me giving you my money. I'm asking on this forum specifically because a lot of Freepers are extremely smart, connected, and in the know about a variety of topics.
He is Risen! Happy Easter!
“Land, water, animals, guns, ammo.” you forgot robots.
And also to kick ass conservative.
The Fed manipulates rates by how much credit they extend, but that’s only because there is a market for our debt. If people refuse to buy out debt at 1% over 6 months, and 3% over a year, then they HAVE to raise rates. Why? to get people to buy the debt. That’s when the $hit will hit the fan.
We desperately needed a larger house because I'm raising grandchildren, so it worked out for me too. Btw, I also made a killing, real estate wise, IF I were to sell now. (I'm in California.) If it all comes crashing down at least the house is paid off and we all have a roof over our heads. Of course I may have to grow my own food in the backyard.
Physical gold and silver (very difficult to find right now) and mining stocks. Be vary careful with bargain hunting - the bigger leg down is looming. OTOH, the Fed's implicit promise to backstop everything might keep the current rally going for a while longer.
Buy gold, even at $1700/ounce.
You don’t really need a lot of gold to weather 6 months of hyper inflation. Prices of goods really go way down relative to gold in a hyperinflation because so much stuff is unsold because nobody can afford it with cash. They barter. Those with sufficient gold stockpiles can weather a year of hyperinflation with 5 to 10 ounces of gold. Of course 20 ounces is better, but that is LOT of money right now.
What’s funny about that is my late grandfather purchased a used 1927 Model T in 1936 for exactly $650. Bill of sale is framed and on display.
Unless money is not real. I’m banking on that
“there are plenty of very financial savvy peeps at M* and other message boards.”
my experience with those “investment” boards/blogs is that the “advice” (opinions really, and about as valid as opinions on any other board, including FR) is all over the map, equally balanced between: Sell, hold, buy, short, long, whatever ... and therefore useless ... besides, i’ve found from personal experience that ANYONE who has an investment scheme that ACTUALLY WORKS almost never tells anyone else about it because it will stop working as soon as the masses pile in (that”almost” is when the schemer actually WANTS everyone else to pile in because they’ve secretly taken the opposite position) ...
i’ve also done MUCH better by ignoring the herd anyway and going my own way, which is usually contrarian ...
> If people refuse to buy out debt at 1% over 6 months, and 3% over a year, then they HAVE to raise rates. <
That’s an interesting argument. But the Fed recently stepped in and started buying US debt at the current low rates. Where they get the money to do that I have no idea.
There’s some wisdom in the thread, but you need to see what’s right in front of you. First, lots of people have lost and will loose their jobs, and those who still have them are now hoarding money, which means deflation. Goods on shelves will just sit there, especially as some idiot places are banning the sale of “non-essential” goods. The prices of cars are already falling. Thus, over the next few months there will be deflation, and probably by the summer your money will get the most bang for the buck. Thus, what you need is to invest in stable long term commodities. And you should think of money as an UNSTABLE long-term commodity, which is only going to lose value compared to other commodities. This is why in countries that have suffered hyperinflation (look it up, more than you think in the last 100 years) things became more important than cash. Thus items that you need that will last, such as bullets, liquor, TP, guns, H2O, salt, silver (much better priced now than gold), clothes, books (especially how-to books), lumber, land (but not necessarily real estate), and most importantly (as regards things) tools. The other most important thing is knowledge: do you know how to sharpen a saw or an ax? How do you take care of wounds (so you aren’t always dependent on MDs), do you know how to start business from scratch? I’d commend to you Tom Woods “Paths to Income.” Invest a few days a figure out how to make passive income. And don’t spend too much time on the www. Check things once or twice a day. The best thing you have to invest right now is your time; don’t waste it. Bon chance to you, and blessed Easter (I’m Eastern Orthodox, and ours in next week).
Philip Fisher (as in Buffet on his methodology: “I’m 85% Fisher and 15% Ben Graham” ) made a study of German stocks during and after the Weimar hyperinflation. He noted that high quality blue chip shares retained 80% of their purchasing power when the crisis had passed. Eliminated the need for timing required by commodity investments.
I would agree with Alberta’s Child that deflation comes first, but when the Eurodollar shortage passes, the US will be uniquely exposed to an inflation threat.
State of the art at that time. The Bugatti Veyron of its time when it hit the market.
In liquor stocks or behind your bar?
“What’s funny about that is my late grandfather purchased a used 1927 Model T in 1936 for exactly $650. Bill of sale is framed and on display.”
Back then it was just a ten-year-old car. In 1979 I bought my first car, a 1969 Chevy Camaro 307 V8, for $900.
They can do it, legally, in several ways: by borrowing against the future ledger (creating it by fiat), by selling shares of their own stock (the fed is a publicly traded company), or by swaps of stocks they hold from companies already in default. These are a few ways, and there are others. They just can’t ‘create’ money, though a number of their actions are largely equivalent to that. And thanks for the article. I had known they were doing that, I saw my holding in gov’t bills take a hit on the day they announced that (counter-intuitive as it was). It was the only day my portfolio, such as it is, took a hit these past few months, as I got out of the market last fall. Keep the faith, brother.
Money thrown into circulation with no evidence of increased GNP (by way of a growing workforce, or people working harder or longer, or more efficiency, or easier access to raw materials) can only cause rising prices. I would expect inflation of 10% from $2 trillion in stimulus injected into a $20 trillion economy over a year's period, unless most of the stimulus was loans (IDK).
We will continue to move toward the high-technology fascism that Huxley predicted in Brave New World. Fauci’s stunning “immunity ID card” comment points to way to our monstrous future. Rural areas where you can escape the tech prison and barter or trade food and resources with other free citizens will be the only way.
me too but its a better barometer than here
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