Posted on 04/12/2020 5:38:34 AM PDT by Factuality
United States Coronavirus cases
We have had outbreaks of disease before. In all cases the number of infected has increased exponentially for some time. In all cases, this number has leveled off as fewer new cases have occurred. Eventually there comes a point where no new infections occur. This all occurs without any extreme lockdowns like the one we’ve done now.
Question: how do we know that the current decline in case growth is due to the lockdown and isn’t just the natural course of the outbreak? Sweden is experiencing a similar slowdown without any lockdown. Perhaps an advisory to practice social distancing and good hygiene without closing everything might have done just as well, or at least nearly so?
Artcore, you’re carrying one Hell of a heavy burden. I hope you find a way to set it down.
Happy Easter to you.
The burden I carry is for those who’ve had their lives destroyed by this hoax. Maybe on this day you can remember those who’ve lost their livelihoods over this scam!
BTW, did you lose your job or business over these forced shutdowns?
In fairness, the latest revision of the model is doing quite well so far. April 11 total deaths: predicted 20,334 actual 20,577. That’s an error of 243 deaths or a bit over 1%. Further the current revision is so far underestimating the death toll. Obviously that may change, but so far the latest model is doing well.
BTW, this is fairly typical in science. Initial models often are inaccurate. There is typically much initial uncertainty about important factors that go into the models. As more data becomes available it becomes easier to determine the important parameters more accurately, and an improved model is the result. Inaccuracy of a previous model does not imply inaccuracy of the current one.
Sweden has the lowest population density in Europe. They are already socially distanced.
Sweden is considering emergency powers to enable a lockdown if their PM decides one is necessary.
We’ve had outbreaks of disease before but not since the Spanish flu in 1918 has one had the potential to be this deadly. Most of the scares in the past couple of decades were managed before they ever reached the U.S. Ebola, SARS, MERS. H1N1 infected a lot of people but wasn’t as deadly as the normal seasonal flu.
Well, if a model is off by 2,140,000 deaths in its predictions, then it’s a crappy model. You don’t need an advanced degree to understand this.
I will try to do that. Yes, I did. Once the economy gets rolling again, I’ll be able to earn money again. Until then, living on savings.
Agreed, but that model is no longer being used. The current model is so far pretty accurate. Don’t assume that the initial model’s inaccuracy means anything with regard to the current one. Also, the “2 million” model was actually predicated on there being essentially nothing done to slow the spread of the virus. While I too am skeptical about that number, we can’t actually know whether or not it was right since the conditions on which that prediction was based have never been the actual real world conditions. The previous model predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths is the first I’m aware of that factored in our mitigation efforts. Obviously that one was an overestimate, but it wasn’t obvious until more data started coming in that a new model was needed. The current model also may turn out to need revision, but so far it’s pretty good. If that continues we’ll see minimal new deaths by mid-May and essentially zero by early June.
The 2 Million was made on a rediculously ideal assumption that nothing would be done. THAT NEVER HAPPENS. Not even the incompetent will do nothing. Plus even the idea of “if we did nothing” is purely hypothetical, given that it hasn’t happened.
except they get on subways and busses that connect to manhattan.
The are exposed in the subway/bus - as they travel for whatever reason.
They might live in the Broncs, or NJ but they travel the NY Transit system
Oh yes! The subway is a major contributor in this outbreak.
Couldn’t get me on a NY subway for a mountain of cash - before this outbreak.
I will take a mountain of cash.
Because
1) My chance of dying is < the car trip to/from NY
2) If i did contract COVID, I would use HCQ (the drug)
3) I am already on immune booster and anti-virals - I have not had “the flu” for 15 years.
It’s not just the illnesses that gets you on the subway. But I get your point.
Deaths lag on average about 20 days from the day of infection.
New cases have been increasing because of the increased availability of testing. It doesn't necessarily mean that the number if new infections isn't coming down.
The best stat to use is hospitalization which does lag by about 5 days behind the date of infection but it's mostly not effected by the availability of testing.
Hospitalizations have been coming down a lot in NYC and NYS over the last few days.
Also, total tested and total negatives, is extremely relevant as more testing occurs. Praying, hoping, and optimistic; :)
2,000,000 is the reason things got shut down, and it makes sense.
Even 200,000, probably not.
“”Because the virus has a long incubation period. Most who will develop symptoms do so in 5-7 days, but some have gone 14 days””
Does everyone know WHEN they were infected? Does everyone know WHERE they became infected? Why can’t we have some simple -from the beginning answers- instead of these flat out statements? Are the people infected given a “Here’s your sign (virus)” thus making the number of days of incubation a certainty?
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