Well, if a model is off by 2,140,000 deaths in its predictions, then it’s a crappy model. You don’t need an advanced degree to understand this.
Agreed, but that model is no longer being used. The current model is so far pretty accurate. Don’t assume that the initial model’s inaccuracy means anything with regard to the current one. Also, the “2 million” model was actually predicated on there being essentially nothing done to slow the spread of the virus. While I too am skeptical about that number, we can’t actually know whether or not it was right since the conditions on which that prediction was based have never been the actual real world conditions. The previous model predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths is the first I’m aware of that factored in our mitigation efforts. Obviously that one was an overestimate, but it wasn’t obvious until more data started coming in that a new model was needed. The current model also may turn out to need revision, but so far it’s pretty good. If that continues we’ll see minimal new deaths by mid-May and essentially zero by early June.