Posted on 04/08/2020 2:45:58 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020
(Excerpt) Read more at covid19.healthdata.org ...
We are at about 13,000 now. My guess is we will end up at about 25,000. But “experts” have predicted 2.2 million, so we have a ways to go. /s
Next it will be June 2020, then July 2020...
Open the TAPS, Open the TAPS!
I believe the projections given distancing was 100 to 240 thousand, my guess is about 80. You figure Italy is 15,000 and is 1/6 of our population and still has a long way to go.
We are at 65 total deaths right now in my Country. One of the countries in my federation is skewing the numbers way up for the whole federation.
My country is Kentucky. The country messing up my federation’s numbers is New York. In fact, they are responsible for almost half of my federation of over fifty countries and territories deaths.
So what we have done at great cost is working.
And you want to toss it away so it can flare up out of control again.
Genius.
In other words, social distancing is proving effective at containing the spread.
Who would have thought?
We are at 400,000 cases now. Applying WHO case mortality rate of 3.4% gives 13,600. So at 13,000 we are already close.
But I think the case mortality rate should be more like 6%, without an effective treatment like HCQ. The world currently stands at 5.7% but that includes China’s low balled numbers. And I think we will see the CMR continue to rise on those initial 400,000 cases. Maybe to 5% so 20,000.
So any projection requires 2 things. How many more cases are we going to get? And what will the case mortality rate be?
We had 33,000 new cases, yesterday. If symptoms show up on day 5 to 7. We should see new cases start to level off 5 to 7 days after a lockdown. People would still be infecting their families, an occasional grocery worker or medical worker, but you would expect that to grind to a halt.
So let’s say 5 more days at 30,000 a day, and 5 more days at 10,000 = 200,000 more cases.
But I think those 200,000 cases will get better treatment, and CMR will be limited to 1%. So 2,000 more deaths.
So 20,000+2,000 = 22,000 deaths.
Without the lock downs or treatments, then probably 50 million cases at 6% = 3 million deaths. Hard to say how many cases. People would have locked down even without the government orders. Communities would have set up barriers to keep people out, like the Chinese communities did and like the one county in Colorado has done.
Either that or the models were way off form the start. And as we get more data, i.e. number of cases VS number of death, the projected mortality rate is dropping. Look at the worldometer chart. Our cases/M is going up, but our death/M has been dropping steadily. Just as many of us predicted. Our projected total death by Aug 4 was 81K+ yesterday this morning it is a little over 61K. A drop of 20K in one day and drop of close to 60K in one week.
Numbers matter. Maybe not to those on here who seem to revel in a high death count and fear. But the facts are the more cases we find without a corresponding rise in deaths will lower the projections. So, since the virus isn’t going away and a vaccine won’t be available for at least a year, the question that must be asked is how many projected deaths are acceptable as a trade off to save the country. People are going to die regardless of what we do. That number is never going to zero. What are we willing to accept? Personally I think it’s time to consider reopening the country in a week or two if the present trend continues.
Humor! Have you noticed a lot of mean girls on this site, lately?
We didn’t need to destroy the economy to deal with what is essentially a bad flu.
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