[DennisR]

We are at about 13,000 now. My guess is we will end up at about 25,000. But “experts” have predicted 2.2 million, so we have a ways to go. /s

[Dr. Ursus]

Open the TAPS, Open the TAPS!

[freespirit2012]

I believe the projections given distancing was 100 to 240 thousand, my guess is about 80. You figure Italy is 15,000 and is 1/6 of our population and still has a long way to go.

[cuban leaf]

We are at 65 total deaths right now in my Country. One of the countries in my federation is skewing the numbers way up for the whole federation.

My country is Kentucky. The country messing up my federation’s numbers is New York. In fact, they are responsible for almost half of my federation of over fifty countries and territories deaths.

[DannyTN]

We are at 400,000 cases now. Applying WHO case mortality rate of 3.4% gives 13,600. So at 13,000 we are already close.

But I think the case mortality rate should be more like 6%, without an effective treatment like HCQ. The world currently stands at 5.7% but that includes China’s low balled numbers. And I think we will see the CMR continue to rise on those initial 400,000 cases. Maybe to 5% so 20,000.

So any projection requires 2 things. How many more cases are we going to get? And what will the case mortality rate be?

We had 33,000 new cases, yesterday. If symptoms show up on day 5 to 7. We should see new cases start to level off 5 to 7 days after a lockdown. People would still be infecting their families, an occasional grocery worker or medical worker, but you would expect that to grind to a halt.

So let’s say 5 more days at 30,000 a day, and 5 more days at 10,000 = 200,000 more cases.

But I think those 200,000 cases will get better treatment, and CMR will be limited to 1%. So 2,000 more deaths.

So 20,000+2,000 = 22,000 deaths.

Without the lock downs or treatments, then probably 50 million cases at 6% = 3 million deaths. Hard to say how many cases. People would have locked down even without the government orders. Communities would have set up barriers to keep people out, like the Chinese communities did and like the one county in Colorado has done.