Posted on 04/06/2020 10:12:18 PM PDT by rustbucket
A Log-Log plot of new New York cases of Covid-19 versus total New York cases of Covid 19 appears to show how "stay at home" and "stay a safe distance from others" has affected the numbers of new cases in New York. I plotted the cases for all of New York (i.e., upstate, NYC, Long Island, etc., combined). Here is the plot (I can't seem to show the plot, but clicking on the link below will show it):
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1KxT_FdfxrYNpWw4l2qs4rG3oZ0q-YnIU
Initially, the Log-Log plot shows an exponential increase in cases, as shown by the blue line. Once the order was given on March 20th for New Yorkers to stay at home and keep a safe distance from others, the number of new cases still increased, but less rapidly than before. The Log-Log plot clearly shows the change in the slope of the data for new cases. The number of new cases decreased on April 5 and 6, some 16 and 17 days after the stay at home order was issued. This might suggest that new cases will continue to decrease since so-called the 14-day infectious period has passed. Hopefully, that short two-day decline in new cases will continue at least gradually if not abruptly. We'll see. Keep staying at home for a while yet, New Yorkers.
The New York data come from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/#history
carriage returns are your friend.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1KxT_FdfxrYNpWw4l2qs4rG3oZ0q-YnIU
Have to look at deaths.
I used HTML until I was blue in the face trying to get the plot to appear. I don’t know what the problem was. I have posted photos on FR before.
Would not the best way to verify this is via random serological testing?
When posting an article with a link the easiest way I’ve gotten links to display correctly is to include it in a separate post and not with the excerpt text. The you can just hit a carriage return and the link displays correctly.
Hospitalizations are going down. Deaths not so much yet. The data are for the whole state, not just NYC. The people dying may have been hospitalized for a while before dying, so they may not yet show the effect of reduced numbers of people coming into the hospitals.
Also, the clinical study of the effect of hydroxychloroquine and Z-Pack currently underway in NYC may be having an effect on the number of NYC deaths, but it is not obvious in the data from the whole state.
WHO, CDC and Dr Fauci must be saying this is anecdotal.
Hospitalization is a good one. I don’t come across that data readily.
Here is another way to look at the various states in the U.S. Click the down arrow on the box that says “The United States of America” to go to the state you want. Use your mouse to use the cursor to move the line up and down the curve. They might be a day behind, but the numbers are the most up-to-date:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections%22
That is the master site where I found the New York data. I first plotted the Texas data (where I live) some days ago, but there were so few cases the data scattered a good bit. New York had so many cases that the data didn't scatter so much.
I'll try it, thanks.
I get a tiny square that I cannot open. I never used to get that. I get that same little square when I send it to myself from gmail or from AOL. That is what I fought for about an hour before giving up and just posting a link. Maybe I am using an old FR HTML sandbox description of how to post images.
It’s promising but still too early to tell imo. It could be an aberration. Plus the 14 day thing is a fairly arbitrary number. But I hope that is the “apex”, the word of the year - perhaps the decade!
That’s what I’ve been saying for a long time but it’s not likely to happen soon. The only way to tell incidence among the wider population is a large and repeated random sampling. So far the testing has way too much selection bias to be reliable.
It is a good place to go. It is the only place where I can get the daily numbers for each state.
I looked back at photos I posted on FreeRepublic in the past. I had successfully posted them on Flickr, and I linked to the Flickr image in my old FR post. I tried to post those same photos again using the Flickr image info. They would not post anymore. All I have been able to post now is a link to an image. There must be a way to post an image itself, but I haven’t found the current way to do it yet.
Heading to bed.
>>Would not the best way to verify this is via random serological testing?<<
Yes, which is why it isn’t being done, because it would reveal the truth: that asymptomatic cases outnumber known cases, that the real death rate is more like regular flu, and that we’ve been screwed.
Has testing increased, decreased, or remained the same? With more testing, we’d expect a greater percentage of all cases to be identified, which would raise the curve. It may be flatter than it appears.
Nice work.
The fourteen day incubation period is part of the story (2-6 is typical, supposedly longer ones can occur), but after an incident case transmits the infection, the time that others are asymptomatically transmitting extends out another fourteen days, and another, and so on.
The existence of hotspots is very interesting. Wuhan is, or was, certainly one, there are some in Europe, and New York (the five boroughs+Nassau, Westchester, Fairfield, and Northern NJ) is another.
Wuhan never made sense to me once I got over the bat soup story. If the Wuhan event was driven solely by the biological properties of the virus, then Shanghai, Guangzhou, and especially Hong Kong should have been much, much worse, but ChiCom lies aside, it is evident that this was not the case.
The difference between LA and NY makes no sense either if you are a “six feet/cough” person. Neither does the very high attack rate (20%) among hospital workers.
I think the environment is important. The guys with the space suits and the foggers spraying everything down with germicides in China may turn out to have been very important.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.