carriage returns are your friend.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1KxT_FdfxrYNpWw4l2qs4rG3oZ0q-YnIU
Have to look at deaths.
Would not the best way to verify this is via random serological testing?
Here is another way to look at the various states in the U.S. Click the down arrow on the box that says “The United States of America” to go to the state you want. Use your mouse to use the cursor to move the line up and down the curve. They might be a day behind, but the numbers are the most up-to-date:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections%22
It’s promising but still too early to tell imo. It could be an aberration. Plus the 14 day thing is a fairly arbitrary number. But I hope that is the “apex”, the word of the year - perhaps the decade!
Has testing increased, decreased, or remained the same? With more testing, we’d expect a greater percentage of all cases to be identified, which would raise the curve. It may be flatter than it appears.
Nice work.
The fourteen day incubation period is part of the story (2-6 is typical, supposedly longer ones can occur), but after an incident case transmits the infection, the time that others are asymptomatically transmitting extends out another fourteen days, and another, and so on.
The existence of hotspots is very interesting. Wuhan is, or was, certainly one, there are some in Europe, and New York (the five boroughs+Nassau, Westchester, Fairfield, and Northern NJ) is another.
Wuhan never made sense to me once I got over the bat soup story. If the Wuhan event was driven solely by the biological properties of the virus, then Shanghai, Guangzhou, and especially Hong Kong should have been much, much worse, but ChiCom lies aside, it is evident that this was not the case.
The difference between LA and NY makes no sense either if you are a “six feet/cough” person. Neither does the very high attack rate (20%) among hospital workers.
I think the environment is important. The guys with the space suits and the foggers spraying everything down with germicides in China may turn out to have been very important.
NY state is much more than NYC, but you wouldn’t think so from the one-size-fits-all approach by Benito Cuomo. Upstate is more like South Dakota but gotta lock down the whole state. Blockheads.