Posted on 04/05/2020 2:43:50 PM PDT by Valpal1
But there’s one data point being used in all of the prevailing models, including Imperial, that no one is talking about.
When did the COVID curve begin?
And it’s an important point. How can we interpret the data we currently have if we don’t know where on the time axis we actually are?
(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...
In regards to the curve,...
2020-04-01 4,746
2020-04-02 5,821
2020-04-03 7,007
2020-04-04 8,352
Move to a location west of the Pecos above 4000 ft. It might help. Nothing better than cool dry air without mosquitoes.
Which daily figure? Nationwide we had 1330 new deaths yesterday. 1045 new deaths the day before that, 974 new deaths April 2, 1049 new deaths April 1, 912 new deaths March 31, and 558 new deaths March 30. How do you know which daily figure to use when the number of new deaths is changing each day?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Is the curve flattening out? Only if you look at it in logarithmic mode. In linear mode it still looks exponential to me.
New death? As opposed to an old death? Since they seem to be daily figures, wouldn’t it seem those were people who died for the first time and on those days.
My point exactly.
Yes, when they say “new deaths” they mean the deaths that occurred on the day in question. This is different from the total number of deaths.
I am all for antibody testing. They should make them like blood sugar meters. One stick and you can tell. Different sticks for different viruses.
That would be great.
And if the data is false...
“LIES, DAMNED LIES, and STATISTICS”
What if Covid was already here back then. It changes the assumptions substantially.
It is quite distinctive, and no information from China would have been required.
You have to remember that prior to that date, they weren’t looking for or testing for covid-19.
Also, the Washington outbreak would not have subsided. The “community spread” cases would have been a much higher proportion of the positives, and they wouldn’t have had such a low rate of positives in February. Lots of other lines of evidence.
That’s just silly.
It is, even without the confusing headline.
Illegal Immigrants in November are a general problem, but not a Wuhan coronavirus-related problem.
Some in my family in Southern California think it was there as early as December. Certainly if October is the actual beginning in Wuhan, and travel to the U.S. from China was still in affect from October to ?????, earlier than believed entry of the virus to the U.S. is possible. With most Covid-19 infected persons being asymptomatic or with just mild symptoms, many people in late 2019 and Jan/Feb 2020 thinking they had the flu, could have had Covid-19 instead; never knew it and were never tested for it.
The coworker/friend who visited our kid around December 18-20 was extremely ill. He had flown in from the Phoenix area, and we believe he had flown to Mountain View (CA) earlier on business and/or had coworkers from Mountain View fly to the Phoenix area. It was a tech company, so the exposure to international travelers is a given.
Right before Christmas our kid got sick, and for at least two days was not feeling well. Ended up with a residual cough that lasted for a while. The bad news is our kid slept the night at our house Christmas Eve. Somewhere between December 28-30, my wife got sick. Really sick. She believes she was sick with at least a mild fever for 7-10 days. Had residual energy issues for a while after.
Somewhere during my wife’s ordeal, I believe I had a bit of a fever one night. I don’t know for sure since I never took my temperature, and it was mostly overnight. Since my wife was out of it for a while, I was able to get extra sleep (in another room - she really was miserable). Between her and our kid, I’m sure I was exposed, but it appears I had the typical minor or non reaction to the virus.
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