Posted on 04/04/2020 6:55:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
One of the offshoots of being on the debate team in college, taking graduate level statistics as part of my masters and working as a lawyer, is an awareness of how one can make a case for practically anything, by playing around with evidence, numbers, analysis and language.
Coronavirus is a world-wide pandemic and should be taken seriously. But the crisis should not be taken advantage of, nor should politicians manipulate definitions, data and diagnoses to achieve political aims.
Getting Down to Cases
There is no such thing as a “case" of COVID-19. According to Merriam-Webster a “case” in medical terms is an instance of a disease or injury. “Cases” are subdivided for public health surveillance by the CDC into the following categories: confirmed, laboratory-confirmed, clinically compatible, etc.
COVID-19 is not a disease; COVID-19 is a family of viruses that may or may not cause illnesses such as the common cold, severe acute respiratory syndrome, etc.
It is reported that of the 1,133,453 "cases" of COVID-19 worldwide 80.9% are mild and can recover at home.
Thus, 80% of the reported “cases” of COVID-19 aren't "confirmed cases" at all under the above definitions. They include people tested positive (laboratory-confirmed) or (to use New York's creativity) people with symptoms that match known cases (clinically comparable).
What's news?
When the "news" reports new "cases" of COVID-19, thinking people should be skeptical about exactly what they are being told. For example, the now famous headline about the aircraft carrier where the Captain was sacked for raising alarm about "cases" of COVID-19 on his ship. The truth: 100 crewmen tested positive - with zero "cases" hospitalized -- on a ship of 5000.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Or, what about hard-hit Italy much reported in the news? Leaving aside the high percentage of Italy's population that is in the "at risk" age range (over 23%), the nation counts all deaths from whatever causes, where there is a positive COVID-19 test.
The above is a good point being made in different ways around the web.
If country A counts people who enter hospital, and country B does more testing of mildly ill people, different counts will result.
Similarly if A counts a death as C19 if C19 is present regardless of cause of death, and B counts it only if C19 was the proximal cause, then it’s hard to compare.
Countries and states are all doing such different things that solid data is almost impossible to have, and yet nobody wants to make a swag guess either. The only thing to do is what we have been doing — trending towards pessimism in the estimate, and adjusting as the data improves (either with quality or quantity or both).
Some of us seem to recall telling certain people on FR this last month when they were slinging scary projection charts like they were going out of style.
Boy.....that attitude here shifted real quick.
Figures don’t lie but liars figure.
Yup. There are still a few die-hard Fearbros on here, posting incessantly, usually accusing anyone who raises questions about this of being morons, or of being greedy bastards who don’t care if grandma dies.
Ever hear the old saying, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”? We are living through this.
Including many freepers.
Boy, that’s the truth.
Many FReepers are retirees who think this is all just fun and games, a drama to watch unfold and be a part of.
What they don’t see, although it’s been discussed here in the past, is that the elderly are dead in this scenario. This is building up to, “OMG! WE CAN’T SAVE EVERYONE! WE MUST CHOOSE!”
An engineer, a mathematician, and a geologist interview for a job. The manager asks the mathematician:
Whats 2+2? He answers 4. Manager says, thank you, we’ll let you know.
Next interview he asks the engineer:
What’s 2+2? Engineer answers 4.0. Manager says we’ll let you know.
He asks the geologist:
What’s 2+2? The geologist leans over and whispers across the desk, “What do you need it to be?”
Hired.
This is exactly what happens in so-called climate science, and clearly epidemiology.
Why is President Trump getting caught up in the hysteria?
I realize that he is surrounded by people constantly crying doom and gloom and I realize the political problems with the press and the likes of Pelosi.
Trump is brilliant...a genius.
When will he take his “Churchill” stand?
100%
Common sense and logic died many years ago. As soon as the socialist indoctrination system was in place the system put all that aside for FEELINGS!
Our children were taught to eschew thinking for emotional feelings. This is apparent in our current predicament. No one is attempting to think logically about this virus. We were shoved into panic by the DNC and their media arm. Only now are some, a very few, looking into what caused it and its ramifications.
No, just destroy the country and we will look into this later. After the destruction is complete.
“Why is President Trump getting caught up in the hysteria?”
He’s not.
5 trillion scientists wearing white lab coats and carrying clipboards disagree with you. ;)
“One of the offshoots of being on the debate team in college, taking graduate level statistics as part of my masters and working as a lawyer, is an awareness of how one can make a case for practically anything, by playing around with evidence, numbers, analysis and language.”
Good observation! This explains the broader phenomenon of why hard it is so hard to change someone’s belief system or world view.
Regardless of what data or argument is presented that goes against your belief system you can always find some other data and/or rationalization to keep believing what you believe. If at a particular moment you can’t you always hold out hope that something will emerge that will support your belief.
This begs the question then of how belief systems are formed in the first place.
There are plenty of Flubros but the "it's exponential bro" types are just as annoying..and wrong. It's a logistic pattern, and nature has followed it for zillions of years. And yet, we see endless threads of this guy quoting this chart and that gal posting this link...does anyone READ this analysis/try to draw a conclusion to help themselves or our fellow man? Or did they see some zinger on Breitbart that supports their hysteria?
There is also an amazing display of Authority Bias...Fauci may be smart (he's authored some good papers) but he vacillates between hysteric and sober spokesbureaucrat - AND he whined for more money during Ebola and he wrote a "love letter" to Hillary. So, I'm supposed to believe him - or anyone holding a medical degree or doctorate or slide ruler - because of a resume? Indeed, the asinine author of this article can't help himself by stating up front "One of the offshoots of being on the debate team in college, taking graduate level statistics as part of my masters and working as a lawyer, is an awareness of how one can make a case for practically anything, by playing around with evidence, numbers, analysis and language." Well I am IMPRESSED...Do you want a cookie?
Now of course I want someone to know what they are doing - I want my electrician to mend the electricity, my doctor to remove my appendix vs toe, and my chef to make a steak. And maybe Blake is a good debater and attorney etc..but Frank Zappa said effectively he didn't care if any auditioner went to Curtis or played with the LSO - I'll see if they can play during the audition.
That is my approach. And frankly, most of the analysis I've seen is crap. I'm sure many people feel the same way about what I've posted, but at least my stuff is original AND Road-tested by FReepers who WILL tell me where I've erred. It's one of the best peer-review places around...and it is how I've seen DoughtyOne and gas_dr produce the best work, and we'd be in the dark without null. Thank you all.
The fact of the matter, is that we are facing something unprecedented....and the tin foil hat guys can make as much sense at times as the statisticians. Wayne Allen Root put it best:
I have many great friends and guests on my national TV and radio shows who are medical experts. Half believe this is the pandemic to end all pandemics. They quote Centers for Disease Control and Prevention models that report as many as 1.7 million Americans could die. So people are rightfully scared out of their minds. American business is shutting down. But the other half of my medical friends and expert guests say this is an overreaction. They predict fewer Americans will die than during the flu season of 2017-18 that killed about 80,000 people. They don't believe we need to close down American business and lock ourselves in our homes. The problem is we won't know who's right until it's over.
So many of us will do our own homegrown analysis and post it for comment in a quest for the truth. Americans have a historic distrust of authority but a champioining of the individual. And THAT is what is annoying so many people who pretend to possess the truth through this thing - we think you're full of shite, mate.
He is not?
Pushing stay in place, face masks , 4 trillion in spending....
That has all of the appearance of getting caught up in the hysteria.
If it is a head fake, good....but it seems to be one hell of a costly head fake.
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