Posted on 04/03/2020 9:51:10 AM PDT by LilFarmer
Yesterday’s thread is here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3831016/posts
Luke Stier
@LukeStier
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1m
MICHIGAN CORONAVIRUS LATEST
•62 new deaths (down from 80 new deaths yesterday)
•1,953 new cases (new one-day record)
It’s a tough one. It’s all about education. My husbands’ employees will be wearing masks now, but will be trained on how to take them on and off properly. Plus they are wearing gloves now, but they found a way that they will not have to touch anything a customer has touched.
As for touching their masks, in my opinion I’d they touch their masks, they would have touched their face. So what’s the difference? If it made them touch their faces less, it’s an improvement.
My elderly father in law would never be able to handle a mask. That’s why he’s at home and we bring groceries, wiped down with bleach, to him
USA IHME 9.50% 4.25% Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily % Chg 1 2/29/2020 1 - 1 - 48 4/16/2020 31,497 9.6% 2,756 9.5% 154 7/31/2020 92,973 0.0% 28 -4.3%
Better to no allow anyone near POTUS and VP.
Coronavirus is now the most common cause of death in New Jersey
https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1246154021586567169
Sadly, TX allows construction on anything. Next door is having their deck redone. Their deck. I fail to see anything essential about that. But, sure, bring in different crews and let them bring their kids. Heck, maybe the kids can invite those multi families down the street who’ve brought in their grandkids and everyone can get infected over a deck.
The funny thing about hospital bills, if you paid a dollar on it every month, there’s nothing they can’t throw you in debtor’s prison.
SPRINGFIELD – The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,209 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 53 additional deaths.
Unknown. There's insufficient data to answer. My gut says no.
I’ve been thinking about “area under the curve”. I wonder if you could assume that the deaths on the way up would be roughly equal to the # on the way down. If so a triangle that fit under the curve on the way up would be roughly equal in size to one lying on the “60 degree side” representing # deaths on the way down. So when we “reach the top”, roughly double the deaths at that time. Just a thought.
TN
3,067 coronavirus cases, 37 deaths in Tennessee — Tennessee Department of Health
CORONAVIRUS
by: Jack Lail
Posted: Apr 3, 2020 / 03:02 PM EDT / Updated: Apr 3, 2020 / 03:13 PM EDT
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) – The Tennessee Department of Health reported Friday there have been 3,067 cases of coronavirus in the state with 37 deaths.
https://www.wate.com/health/coronavirus/3067-coronavirus-cases-37-deaths-in-tennessee-tennessee-department-of-health/
KS
KU med students graduate early to help with pandemic
KANSAS CITY, Kan. (AP) — More than 50 University of Kansas medical students are graduating early to participate in a program that will deploy them throughout the state to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.
The University of Kansas Medical Center said in a news release that the program will allow seniors to serve in areas of “critical need” before their residencies start in July at various locations throughout the country.
Students from all three of the medical school’s campuses, in Kansas City, Salina and Wichita, have volunteered.
https://www.ksnt.com/health/coronavirus/ku-med-students-graduate-early-to-help-with-pandemic/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_KSNT_News&fbclid=IwAR2XeWflp2_KNkhyKKEOqyUanwp3-B_Y097iM75qFpd0S9H3JHcX8Rf6OuU
******
Cases: 620
Hospitalizations: 151
Statewide Deaths: 17
Negative Tests: 6454
Thank you
Gavin Newsom
@GavinNewsom
NEW: CA has 10,701 confirmed positive cases of #COVID19.
2,188 of those who have tested positive are in our hospitals. 901 of those patients are in the ICU.
This disease can impact anyone. Stay home. Take this seriously. #StayHomeSaveLives
https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1246157473674747911
I’m in the safe boat where you the wear a mask, gloves, don’t touch anything you don’t need to, carefully discard and use whatever sanitizer you have - twice - on you and whatever you eventually bring inside to your family.
Better yet, stay home. It isn’t that difficult. Why are people still going to the store every few days? That’s insane. Buy enough to last til summer and don’t go back again.
A couple of other little things that might help is to use conditioner on your hair so it doesn’t fly onto your face as much and put it up into a ponytail or bun. At the very least, don your sunglasses for eye protection. Use a scrub for your face so the skin is smoother and less likely to catch dust, fur or whatever that floats by that makes you touch your face.
I think India is going to be the hardest hit.
China has badly but will lie about the numbers.
In India, we’ll see truly devestating numbers.
Illegals?
I don't have a problem with the non-linear curve/area calculation - I assume the resulting distorted bell shape probably reflects every actual epidemiology historical plot out there.
The key here, however, is how IHME assumes we'll ramp up to a peak of 2.9k in 13 days. To get there, we'd have to experience the type of % growth Italy recorded 18 days ago. That of course is during a period when they were still in the throes of trying to get a handle on the situation. If we use an 8 day lag, then the growth % drops way off because that's when Italy began to reflect the lock-down impact.
So, the big question is: Why assume the US is in a similar position as Italy 18 days ago? Because that's what's necessary for the 4/16 peak of 2.9k and 93k total by 8/1 requires. If we assume we're reasonably tracking Italy day for day (and even that is fairly conservative, because what if we're actually *ahead* in terms of pushing down the curve?), then we're going to be off both the peak and run out number.
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