Corona virus daily thread #36

[LilFarmer]

Yesterday’s thread is here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3831016/posts

[Balding_Eagle]

“I’d rather be broke than dead. How about you?”

So those are the only choices?

Huh.

Must be a tough life when you are imprisoned in the ‘there are only two options’ prison.

[LilFarmer]

Yes some shut down, while others redirected their services to become an essential service in supporting hospitals. Some car manufacturers are being repurposed to build ventilators, even some clothing manufacturers have begun to make masks. Some people laid off have chosen to become store stockers, delivery drivers, etc.

I’m not saying that it’s not hard, but I refuse to believe that the “death toll” from a few months off is going to kill as many as letting the virus run unchecked.

We’ve had the best economy in my lifetime. If my 20-something, blue-collar son could get out of debt and manage to put money away, there is no reason anyone couldn’t, honestly. And even if a person is are in dire straits, because of poor lifestyle choices, now we have the stimulus which will keep a lot of small businesses going and ,along payroll. I realize all will have to pay the piper some time, but those of you trying to make this look like some version of a Charles Dickens’ novel, are just over the top.

[amorphous]

I think some of our leaders need to as well.

[bgill]

Stay inside. When you do go out, days from now, spray the walkway and go the opposite direction where that guy would have walked.

[LilFarmer]

I choose alive, with bills I will pay the rest of my life. I guess that makes me odd.

[lodi90]

I’d rather be broke than dead. How about you?

---

That’s a false choice. We’re all still alive. However, many of us are economically devastated due to the Wu Flu Panic of 2020. Unsurprisingly, Wu Flu hobbyists couldn’t care less about the devastation their tantrums have inflicted on their fellow Americans.

[Badboo]

TO MASK OR NOT TO MASK
Scenes from the domestic battleground....

Wife made a quick trip to Food Lion, just to top off. By way of background she is the former Chief of Death Investigations for a major east coast Medical Examiners office. Started in NYC, worked at the first AIDs clinic there, at Sing Sing as well, hospitals, etc.

Older lady, outside of Food Lion, keeps pulling her mask off her nose, touching her face. Wife asks her what is she doing? She replies it is too hard to breath. Wife explains doing that won’t protect her. That type of mask was not meant to be worn for long periods, it is used to visit patients, spend some time with them, then discarded.

She explains the PPE training she received, in the day, when first treating TB patients. Your mask has to be individually fitted to your face. You put it on, then they put a hood over you and spray a scent. If you can smell it, your mask isn’t fitted and has to be adjusted. They spray your fingers with a UV liquid. You put your mask on, take it off. They put it under a UV light. If you touched the mask where you shouldn’t you need more practice. Poor lady doesn’t know what to make of all of this.

Then wife sees a Food Lion employee, gloves on, going case to case, touching one thing, then another. Basically transferring whatever microbes are on one thing to another. Touches her face. Wife wants to bash her, wants to tell her that she should be using hand sanitizer not gloves and wiping case handles. But she turns and leaves and doesn’t touch a thing the employee did.

Wife gets home in a rant. Says if they recommended masks it will be a farce. People aren’t trained to use them, it will be worse then just keeping basic sanitizing procedures in place. And don’t get her started on gloving protocol!!! She has pretty much seen every type of death known to mankind up close and personal.

Big argument ensures. I say everyone needs to wear masks. Bot not to protect yourself by wearing one. I agree people won’t use them correctly. But the reason is to have something, ANYTHING, ON THE FACES OF THE INFECTED who are out and can’t get tested or are asymptomatic. Any interference with the release of infectious vapor is better than nothing. She knows we are talking about homemade masks, bandannas or scarves. She can’t believe she is hearing this. It goes against all her medical training and life and death experience. I say when you have messed up so completely, actually inculcated failure upon failure, as we (i.e. CDC, politicians, local governments) have so stupendously with this virus, then gross measures, however inane and in artfully applied is all you have in your toolkit. What a country.

Your view?

[GulfMan]

I’d rather be dead. I will not owe my soul to any Hospital in bills after this I share you. If I get it I am going to set up a tent in the backyard and stay outside of my house until I die or survive. That decision was already made by me

[bgill]

Bored to death is nothing compared to six feet under death. Don’t let them pet your dogs. Sorry, life lessons must be learned. They stay on their side of the fence and you and the pups stay on your side. No exceptions.

[Fury]

...but those of you trying to make this look like some version of a Charles Dickens’ novel, are just over the top.

Please stop the "you". Uncalled for.

Re-positioning industry to make ventilators is important. It is a drop in the bucket compered to auto sales.

I'm concerned about what I project to be 17-25% unemployment by August, 2020. I think the big priority is to make sure lending and bank functions do not seize up. 2008 is some recent history on that.

[LilFarmer]

MO
Cases in Missouri: 2113
Deaths 19
https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/results.php

MI
Cases 12744
Deaths 479
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163-520743—,00.html

OH
Ohio has confirmed 3,312 cases of coronavirus based on limited testing, according to data released Friday by the Ohio Department of Health.

The caseload is a 14% increase from the previous day.

The total includes 895 hospitalizations (27% of cases) and 91 deaths
https://www.the-daily-record.com/news/20200403/coronavirus-ohio-cases-reach-3312-with-91-deaths-gov-dewine-speaking-—live

[mrsmith]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/tempe/2020/04/02/asu-researchers-look-traces-covid-19-tempe-wastewater-could-be-early-warning-system/5109746002/

Tempe AZ experimenting with testing sewage water.

[LilFarmer]

I am talking about death rate, not unemployment.

Do you believe the economy closing for 2 months is going to cause a 2% death rate?

[bgill]

The Weather Channel has a tab at the top of their site labeled “Coronavirus” which has a graph over the past month of cases.

TX has gone from 0 to 4669 cases and 70 deaths in less than a month. That’s horrific.

[Raebie]

Just don’t go to water that could have sewage in it, like the ocean. It spreads the virus, that’s why beaches are closed.

**********************************

That’s not why beaches are closed. They’re closed because idiots can’t stay 6 feet apart.

[LilFarmer]

Point taken.I should probably clarify, these are pups at my barn quite a distance from my house. I only go to see them twice a day.

[cgbg]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.

A lot of experts can’t deal with that simple fact—when they don’t see perfection, they freak.

[bgill]

I’ve been worried about our water well. It is feet from the river which is still getting tourists from who knows where and infected with who knows what.

[semantic]

When I use an 8 day lag with Italy (the one I originally showed you weeks ago that tracks the series from each respective country's first recorded CV death), I keep coming up with projected results far lower than the IHME models for both the 4/16 peak and 8/1 total.

Since I've already reverse engineered the IHME models on another sheet - for both 4/16 peak and 8/1 total - I knew what their growth assumptions & sequencing looked like.

Curious, I went back to my model that tracks (gross) US to Italy, and started extending the date lag. Voila, I matched up almost perfectly with the IHME model by going back 18 days.

Now, I don't know how one would really begin to address that basis, because those are pretty significant assumptions. For one, adding 10 extra days arbitrarily places us in a period where Italy was still experiencing significant growth. However, as the blue line shows, Italy has actually been bouncing around a top now for 14 days.

Notes: Yellow line (18 day lag) plots peak US at 2.8k+- 4/16, then drops over 115 days to zero out at 94k. Red line (8 day lag) falls far short.

[bgill]

dead from the economy is just as dead as dead from the virus

No, it isn't.