Posted on 04/02/2020 9:39:12 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
Key Updates for Week 12, ending March 21, 2020
Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease; however, influenza-like illness activity is increasing. Influenza severity indicators remain moderate to low overall, but hospitalization rates differ by age group, with high rates among children and young adults.
Key Points:
* Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity continued to increase. More people are seeking care for respiratory illness due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
* Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are the most commonly reported influenza viruses this season. Previously, influenza B/Victoria viruses predominated nationally.
* Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.
* Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.
* CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.
* Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.
(Emphasis added by Yo-Yo)
Just a little perspective vis-a-vis Covid-19 China Syndrome.
Also no cases in Antarctica. Or Pluto. So everything is fine.
24,000 deaths over a 100 day flu season is 240 per day. 1,049 CV deaths yesterday. However, hopefully as it gets warmer both totals will go down.
And the key word there is “estimates.”
“CDC estimates . . . 24,000 deaths from the flu.”
That large number of people are never confirmed to have died from the flu.
We need the medical profession and its entire industries to be REQUIRED, by state laws, to make a standard set of conditions reported to the states - (a) seasonal flu diagnosis, (b) positive tests for any “seasonal flu” virus(es) (quite often not even tested), (c) hospitalizations for URI conditions stemming from/related to “seasonal flu”, (d) deaths from conditions related to a respiratory illness related to “seasonal flu”. And then we need the CDC to (a) get their data from the states and (b) quit making “estimates”.
CDC reports that CCP Virus is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the US, behind heart disease and cancer ONLY. That was back at the 784 a day rate.
It ain’t the flu, bro.
“It ain’t the flu bro”
Actually it is a flu but one without any preventative measure like a vaccine. The total actual registered flu deaths from week i to week 11 is 4,944. The Covid 19 death total for that same week was 21. As of 4/1/20 Covid 19 was up to 5,102. The regular flu is probably similar although not yet reorted on FluVu. It’s on the down slope and 19 is sharply up.
Where it will peak and end up iis a guess but it will be higher than normal flu for sure. The rate is the thing that gets attention.
Point is the regular flu killed nearly 5000 in 10 weeks and nobody noticed. The rate is what gets our attention.
Where did you find those numbers? Is that a worldwide number? Because that many people are not dying from the flu in the U.S.
CDC overestimates the number of flu cases and deaths from flu. The big number put out by CDC is not the number of confirmed deaths by flu; rather, it's an overblown estimate.
CDC FluVu.The number comes from their weekly chart for the deaths in each flu season. If you go to that chart with all the colored sign waves, there is a link for the data which is in an Excel spread sheet. Add up 2020 flu season weeks 1-11 and you will get 4,944. The usual flu season is week 40 of one year coupled with week 10-39 of the next year. The 2019-2020 year will be probably double this number but it won’t get up to the 24,000 estimate. It never does. The worst season was 2017-18 and the total was 15,900 or so.
I don’t know how the CDC gets their estimates for deaths per year. The data above comes from 2 sources they cite in the verbiage, which the CDC site is full of.
24,000 deaths over a 100 day flu season is 240 per day. 1,049 CV deaths yesterday. However, hopefully as it gets warmer both totals will go down.
The CDC reports (here) there were 4,513 deaths in the U.S. between January 21, 2020 and April 2,2020. There are 72 days between those two dates, for an average of 62 deaths per day.
COVID-19 deaths are still on the increase, so we won't know the final average until this is over.
Yet with 400,000 flu hospitalizations this season, we haven't heard of endemic shortages of ventilators, and with 24,000 deaths we haven't heard of the need for more refrigerated trailers to house the recently deceased.
My question is why not?
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
You have to add in the pneumonia deaths (38,001 for weeks 1-11) to the flu deaths to get to the total of 42,945.
That is what the CDC does.
Here's the CDC explaining (or trying to justify) its mortality numbers for the flu: How the CDC Estimates Influenza-Associated Deaths
The CDC's position is that deaths from flu are underreported, so CDC estimates a much higher number.
In other words, those weekly numbers in that file are exaggerated estimates. Very few death certificates list "flu" as the cause.
For an idea on just how much the CDC exaggerates the number of deaths from flu, click on this 2010 National Vital Statistics report and go to page 39. That chart indicates that 500 people died from the flu that year (as per their death certificates), whereas almost 50,000 died of pneumonia.
Nowadays, CDC isn't even telling us how many people died of the flu (as per their death certificates). It just combines the number of flu and pneumonia deaths to make the number look much larger.
Because we don’t already have enough stupid reporting and paperwork requirements in medicine.
“In other words, those weekly numbers in that file are exaggerated estimates”
I don’t agree. The weekly numbers are from two surveys listed above in FluVu. They do include pneumonia deaths, because that’s how any flu kills.
The flu death estimates are listed for each year and you’re right they are always higher because the CDC believes the Excel numbers are low. How they get those numbers is not clear.
If the flu only kills 500 people a year, what’s all the fuss about with free flu vaccines and warnings?
Bottom line is the flu kills. Every year it kills thousands. A new strain kills more because we have no protection. Is this flu more deadly and in need of very special extraordinary government action? I think we have to say yes but it’s like a very risky chemo therapy mucking about with the economy like we are. That could kill our way of life and progress for a long while.
Pneumonia can be caused by bacterial and other infections, too. So, the question is, why not have pneumonia alone in one category? Why combine pneumonia with the flu? See below:
If the flu only kills 500 people a year, what’s all the fuss about with free flu vaccines and warnings?
Many people were skipping the flu shot. The CDC wanted to encourage people to get flu shots, so they started making the number of flu deaths look larger. There's far more to the story, but that's the gist of it.
All this doesn't mean that the economy should be shut down or that a stimulus bill should've been passed. This virus is far more serious than the flu. What should be done about it is a different discussion.
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