Posted on 03/30/2020 8:08:30 AM PDT by DouglasKC
Have you noticed something?
There are a growing number of Americans who are in a panic about the economy.
Cries of "the economy will never recover if we're shut down too much longer" abound. Wails about "this will be worse than the great depression if it continues" are flooding social media.
This is despite President Trump's pronouncements that our economy will rebound quickly. President Trump believes that there is pent up demand that will explode once restrictions are lifted.
At least with the corona virus there was good reason to be concerned. It has ripped through other countries causing every government in the world to react in a similar way: institute measures to slow the spread so the medical system isn't overwhelmed. Every government has taken the calculus that doing nothing to combat the virus will hurt their economies in the long term. So they've taken short term economic pain to insure this doesn't happen.
Around the world and especially in the United States this strategy seems to be working so far.
Yet the panicky people who are worrying about the economy often look at the good results of what our government has done so far and say "See!! I told you the virus wasn't so bad!". They want to throw open the doors right now because they are fearful of what will happen with the economy if we don't. They have apocalyptic visions of President Trump presiding over a weak America while liberals gleefully dance on America's grave.
Yet stocks are once again on the rise. Investors are happy with what the President is doing to combat the virus AND for his vision of the economy. This is largely because before the virus broke President Trump had super-charged our economy. We were the strongest economically than perhaps at any other point in history...and we were getting stronger.
What happened with the virus has ONLY worked out in Trump's favor. It's now been proven that his vision of America first was absolutely correct. The virus has shown that we can't be dependent on China for manufacturing. It's not in our national interest. It's shown that we MUST control our borders and clamp down on illegal and legal immigration. President Trump's near daily press conferences have shown the American people that he's not the monster the news media portray him as.
Yet for all these positives those who believe that our economy can't take a two or three month slowdown are wringing their hands and screaming like little girls who have seen a spider.
As President Trump says this isn't going to stop us. We're going to bounce back faster and stronger than anyone can imagine...IF we follow his recommendations to combat the virus. If we let up too soon we're back to square one. If too many people figure they know more than President Trump does and flout his recommendations we're also back to square one.
Don't panic. Stick with the program that President Trump and his team have instituted to both combat the virus and keep the economy strong.
Well I would't put it that way of course. That's an insulting characterization of what I said and meant. What I meant is that when someone is in a disaster or see's a disaster happening we can react in one of two ways: We can scream "We're all going to die" and cry about it. OR we can take constructive measures to get through it and continue to make plans for the future.
Sweden also has one of the lowest population densities in Europe. That’s going to help them.
Well see. Their curve isn’t accelerating as fast as other countries, but it is accelerating.
It's weird.
Yes, it is going to be a bloodbath. I believe they will try to print their way out of it.
FR needs an ignore button
I don't think it will be that long. There's going to be big vacuums in certain industries and enterprising people with capital will swoop in to fill the void.
The hotel industry is seeing revenue declines of approximately 90-95% right now. 9-11 was only down 30% for a couple weeks and 2008-09 was down 20%. It took the industry 60 months to recover from down 20%. How long will down 90-95 take? And then think of the adjacent industries (restaurants, car rentals, airlines, shopping, etc). Lastly, lenders are going to be VERY careful about lending in this environment, so even if you wanted to start a business post this, it will be hard as heck to do so unless you want to go all equity, which most businesses of any size will not, especially capital heavy businesses.
I almost dread what’s going to happen when this is over ... millions in projects temporarily on hold that will all have accelerated timelines the minute this starts looking like its coming to an end
I’ll be lucky to not be on a plane or in a hotel room on the road every night for months
Sorry, but they do not choke to death on their phlegm. They die because they are deprived air due to fluid that is filling their lungs, going into what is called ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), and finally succumbing to pneumonia.
Sweden did it right and when this is all over with the one thing that will put Trump’s re-election in danger is the mantra that he over reacted. It was not his desire to go this route but he got bamboozled into it. The millions out of a job will be very sympathetic to this message. Bank on it.
Yup, I have about 6 months of cash on hand, plus with my job, I’d get 7 months of severance if I was laid off (counting paid leave), which is unlikely. I am, however, bracing for a potential 20% reduction in salary for the rest of the year, which most of our industry (lodging) has done for all corp office personnel still not furloughed. I’m guessing they will issue stock grants equal to the difference if we go that route but we’ll see.
Recall back to the immediate aftermath of 9/11-anthrax and how everything sort of died. We recovered.
There is literally NO public support for restarting the economy at the peak of the virus. None. You might get 5% to go along, if you were lucky. You do not govern against the overwhelming will of the people. Trump would simply be committing suicide for no gain when the cases of the virus, and the deaths, started going up again - and you’d have communism writ large after November.
We are the world’s reserve currency - and there is no threat to that whatsoever - this 6 trillion or the next 6 trillion isn’t going to make a damned bit difference because it is never going to be “paid off” by the taxpayer. The world has nowhere else to go for a market. You will probably - depending on the Democrats - get a massive tax cut when this is over, and if the Democrats get in the way, you’ll get it next January. There will be significant tariffs, and they will be gladly paid to get into this market.
The world has nowhere else to turn except here when this is done. Everyone in the world still wants U.S. dollars, so we will print as much as we want and the demand will still be strong. It’s a book entry in our financial system. It’s not a mortgage, it doesn’t ever have to be paid back...the biggest effect will be a little more inflation over time - a veritable cold in the face of metastatic cancer.
That is incorrect. WW2 actually increased aggregate demand due to government spending to ramp up and then support the war - it’s what got us out of the great depression once and for all. This is basically 40-50% of the economy being shut down for at least 6 weeks.
I think housing will hold up better than you think. Between massively expanded unemployment benefits + $1200/person + 500/kid and likely more relief, I think its likely most consumers have enough to keep them floating for quite a while. Plus, underwriting for home loans has been MUCH better this time around and large rental companies will be looking to buy assets on the cheap keeping a floor on most markets. I think this will make people think twice about upgrading to a new home, though, or putting their home on the market.
There was a recession, more associated with Korea in the early 50’s. As Europe can back on line the demand for American products sold or sent to Europe shrunk.
We came out of the depression with the first drafts in 1940. Ta hat took the slack out of the system as the government injected cash into the growing war effort in Europe.
The economy will recover.
The panic mongers are billionaires and money managers who live off the Market. They are happy to volunteer others to “get back to work”
LOL That was just the first week of this and before the expanded unemployment benefits. I bet it’ll be 3-6 million a week, every week through the end of April - and that doesn’t count those who had their hours cut or their salary cut.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.