Posted on 03/24/2020 11:22:45 AM PDT by rb22982
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
Based on the Oxford model, SK was already on gen 19-20 by the time they started working on it and only 2-3 gens from ending anyway. Antibody test is what is needed. You can’t down the world’s economy without extraordinary proof, and without knowing the “silent attack” (assymptomatic + mild) case rate we are going blind globally.
Yup, appears most of the world did.
The CDC are laboratory researchers not doctors. The USPHS has been dealing with this stuff for a 100 years on the front line. It was a USPHS doctor in his khakis who gave me my first polio shot when they came to our school on Manhattan when I was in second grade
You’re comparing apples and pineapples.
Oh BS. It wasn't 2-3 generations from ending anyway - impersonal subject. They brought it to a screaming halt in 2-3 generations through very active aggressive measures that are well describe in the press.
They were not that aggressive but you can think that all you want. They tested less than 5% of the population. The good news is we will find out soon which study/model is right.
No competent scientist or engineer would view these assertions as a “model.” It offers no explanatory hypothesis [credible mechanism] and ignores the data that does exist.
Yeah Oxford is known for being moronic. And actually the study does state their case and they ask for gov to prove it with blood samples
Not trying to, it spreads at a finite, measurable but rapid rate. It has a long incubation period, and a long duration until the virus is cleared. Most people remain infected for several weeks, with no or mild symptoms, but the small percentage who develop serious symptoms do not happen in a day, it takes time. Thus by the time you are aware you have a problem that is not just ordinary flu and pneumonia, it has already spread through a large part of the population.
You could model your hypothesis fairly easily. It is utterly inconsistent with the exponential growth that is actually seen. The exponential growth rate tells you the rate at which it is spreading. Adding in a time delay and a multiplier for fractional onset of serious symptoms only shifts the curve in time. It doesn’t change the exponential factor - which is the distinctive feature.
Those tests aren’t for people who have recovered. But then again, I agree it’s highly unlikely that half the population has been exposed. In light of the testing in HK, Japan, Free China, Singapore....
Coronavirus: Millions of Britons will need to contract COVID-19 for 'herd immunity ' 3/13/2020, 8:42:50 AM · by Oldeconomybuyer · 28 replies SKY News ^ | March 13, 2020 | by Greg Heffer Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News. Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said. Herd immunity is the resistance to a contagious disease within a population because enough people have become immune, and so it is harder for it to spread.
I agree completely with the math, you are missing the point. Of course the model for infection is well known, the problem is to fit a model to an actual event you need accurate data. The data in this case is terrible. We are only testing a small fraction of the people infected. I have been exposed and have had moderate symptoms worse than a flu, but not bad enough to need critical care, same for tens of thousands of others, but we can’t be tested due to rules and lack of test kits. Likely a hundred thousand others are infected with no symptoms, or symptoms too mild to bother with. So when we see 1731 new cases added tomorrow and 2132 the next day, it is meaningless if the actual numbers are 27,321 tomorrow and 21,238 the next day. We have such a small, biased (those sick enough to be hospitalized are the ONLY ones being tested in my area) sample that it doesn’t really provide a sufficient data set to model, all we are modeling is the limits of our testing capacity.
The NHS can hope...
Cuz the NHS can’t cope.
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