Posted on 03/24/2020 11:22:45 AM PDT by rb22982
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
1 in a 1,000 is definitely not accuraet. They’ve already had more 26,000 test positive out of a population of 20 million, which is 1.3 in a 1,000, and that wouldn’t include anyone who had it earlier or anyone assymptomatic or mild cases..
I doubt it. This virus doesn’t spread so easily. You literally have to come in contact with an infected person’s saliva.
But, once it turns over and peaks that does not mean you have saturated the population. You have just broken the chain reaction which most communities have done through social distancing or in the case of SK Taiwan , HK and Singapore, rapid thorough and accurate contact tracing and isolation.
I'd count that as a rounding error, she was having casual conversation.
That said, the test rate is low. Using the roughly 25% of those tested, test poistive (compared with 10% most other places), about 100,000 tests done to get 26,000 positive. As more tests are done, more positives will certainly be found.
But I do agree that 1:1,000 figure is odd. Will have to go back and see what she was referring to.
That still would not prevent other outbreaks. If this study is right, it means SK was likely already near the end of their cycle. We’ll find out in the next 2-3 weeks which study is right, or we could simply do an anti-body test on a random sample.
Exactly. Here, the vast majority of people tested after having symptoms or exposure to an infected person have come back negative for Chinese Coronavirus.
In other words our own useless government is trying to shitcan the American economy and go into depression for no goddamn good reason.
I believe my son’s boss & wife and my son had it. My son’s grandson was in the NICU but was doing better so on the 25th of February, at the request of his boss, he returned to work for “just 3 days”
He was going back to help w/GS on the 29th and woke up sick, he is just now feeling better. They all say it is the worst flu they’ve had in their lives. None of them went to the Dr. because they didn’t really need medical intervention.
A childhood friend of ours and several of his acquaintances were sick and all said it was the sickest they’d ever been and he was actually getting better by the time our son got sick.
All are well now but I believe it has been percolating in the population for sometime.
Yup - socialists around the world must be estatic. The Paris accord didn’t even remotely attempt to have so much CO2 activity curtailed as we have done to ourselves.
There’s apparently a 15-minute test you can do at home for antibodies, already approved, used in China. If you had a choice of being locked up at home for 2 weeks, or giving a blood sample, you’d probably give the sample.
If they really have 40% of more already infected and over it, this means that the peak of the “worst case curve” is a LOT lower (both because it reduces the effective population by 40%, AND it also means 40% of your population is a barrier.
If you tell stores to prioritize immune people to cashiers and put the not-yet-immune in less public positions for a while, you achieve social distance at low cost.
First you have to explain the exponential increases in every other population. And second. there was an exponential increase in SK early on and then they got on contact tracing immediately to nip the propagation in the bug.
Dr. Birx was asked about this today. They admitted that the CDC is not prepared to do large-scale antibody testing.
They dropped the ball on this in just about every way they possibly could.
Good Trump campaign talking point.
If you liked National House Arrest, you’ll love the Paris Accords.
In which case our isolation was mostly dragging this out.
Virginia has only been testing vigorously for 5 days. We are getting about 38 new cases a day, every day. No exponential component yet. We’ll see.
Oh BS. You have to know its a problem and have the time to develop the anti-body test in order to do widespread anti-body tests. You don't just find these kits on the shelf at CVS.
Found the source of the statement ...
Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing - March 23, 2020
DR. BIRX: ... Finally, to conclude: New York City. The New York metro area of New Jersey, New York City, and parts of Long Island have an attack rate close to 1 in a 1,000. This is five times what the other areas are seeing. There -- through the high-throughput lab investigations, we're finding that 28 percent of the submitted specimens are positive from that area, where it's less than 8 percent in the rest of the country.So to all of my friends and colleagues in New York: This is the group that needs to absolutely social distance and self-isolate at this time. Clearly the virus had been circulating there for a number of weeks to have this level of penetrance into the general community.
In this case, the attack rate is the product of number of tests times the rate of positives (28%) divided by the population. It has no bearing on the actual infection rate, which is unknown and not really sought yet. We have close to zero data on the asymptomatic.
The woman in Ohio was convinced that there were already over 100,000 cases there last week. If there were, and each person spreads to 2.3 people, and it takes 2-7 days, that means they could have a million now. (100,000 day 0, 230,000 new day 3.5, 700,000 new day 7)
I (looking back in retrospect) wonder if the first wave came in the fall of 2019?
I got sick - cough (semi-phlegmy), sore throat, light headache, run down feeling, snotty nose, fever of 102 degrees, etc. It last about 2 - 2 1/2 weeks.
Now I get it that those symptoms don’t match those of CV but there were a few similarities. I’m going off ancdotal reports - but it seemed like a lot of people were having those same problems.
Could it have been just a common cold bug ripping around? Could it have been a non-CV type of virus? Definitely.
But given the way I felt last fall, it was one of the more rougher colds I’ve ever had.
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