[AndyJackson]

In every place we are watching the initial growth of infection is EXPONENTIAL. The only way to get an exponential is a chain reaction (each infection leads to more than one follow-on infection), into a virgin population. Once you start saturating the population, the replication rate falls below 1 and you go off the exponential.

But, once it turns over and peaks that does not mean you have saturated the population. You have just broken the chain reaction which most communities have done through social distancing or in the case of SK Taiwan , HK and Singapore, rapid thorough and accurate contact tracing and isolation.

[rb22982]

That still would not prevent other outbreaks. If this study is right, it means SK was likely already near the end of their cycle. We’ll find out in the next 2-3 weeks which study is right, or we could simply do an anti-body test on a random sample.