Posted on 03/23/2020 2:28:00 PM PDT by jrestrepo
On January 21, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Washington State Department of Health announced the first case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States in Washington State.
Learn more about the coronavirus from Washington State’s official COVID-19 website. Maintained by the state Joint Information Center.
(Excerpt) Read more at doh.wa.gov ...
As of yesterday at least, things seemed to be leveling out there.
What’s your take?
Thanks for the link.
The county where I am planning to buy land has the least number of cases and zero deaths.
Easy there. I don’t call it the People’s Soviet of Washington because their embrace of States’ Rights, 2A, and small government.
And we’re all waiting for Asshat Inslee to speak later today.
There are now two confirmed cases here in Mason County.
Which one is that. I’m an eastern Washingtonian myself...
He’s got to get into press conference mode like everyone else.
Pend Oreille County (very NE corner of the state) has zero cases.
I agree.....sort of. In King County cumulative deaths are not growing hugely as projected. About 30+ of the King County deaths are from a single nursing home. What is of concern is that there are now reported Covid-19 confirmed cases at a number of King County nursing home.
Even more troubling is a meeting that took place in Skagit County, where over half the roughly 50+ people attending have come down with Covid-19. That is sending shock waves through lots of groups and government officials.
There is panic, but we shall see what the Governor says tonight in his address to the people of the State. The Trump declaring Washington State, California and New York as National Guard mobilized states implies that something may be going on.
Jefferson.
It has one of the least number of cases and zero deaths.
Cumulative totals for King County, WA:
March 09 => cases: 116; deaths: 20
March 10 => cases: 190; deaths: 22
March 11 => cases: n.a.; deaths: n.a.
March 12 => cases: 270; deaths: 27
March 13 => cases: 328; deaths: 32
March 14 => cases: 388; deaths: 35
March 15 => cases: 420; deaths: 37
March 16 => cases: 488; deaths: 43
March 17 => cases: 518; deaths: 46
March 18 => cases: 562; deaths: 56
March 19 => cases: 693; deaths: 60
March 20 => cases: 793; deaths: 67
March 21 => cases: 934; deaths: 74
March 22 => cases: 1,040; deaths: 75
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020.aspx
Still waiting for today’s report (usually released in late afternoon).
I am a numbers guy. I analyze all of the data that I can get a hold of.
I think the trend in WA has hit the inflection point and they will see a flattening of the curve. This assumes that they do not have another assisted living home pop up.
Also, look at the percentages for all of the other counties, they have fairly promising.
Just my 2 cents
A plugged in acquaintance informs us that Inslee will issue a Shelter-In-Place order at 5.30 p.m. Source is third hand from law enforcement.
Doing an ordinary least squares fitting of the last 13 days of WA case data from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/washington/ to a logistic progression, I also find it’s at or near the inflection point. The raw data best fits a final total case count of 4300; adding some Poisson noise to the data pushes that figure up to the 4400-4600 range.
FYI ping
I do not understand how these places were not closed to visitors from the moment the first nursing home had sick people.....check all staff daily in and out...do the testing of staff as well....
sure hospitals and nursing homes are closed to visitors now but that didn't happen to well into this virus....
You had me at “least squares”! :-)
Many people do not understand technical jargon, but I like it.
First one of the things that the Kirkland Life Center nursing home said was that they typically have 7 or so deaths a month. It took a while for them and others to figure out that “these” deaths all fit the same pattern and not the random deaths they were use to seeing. By then things were too well distributed among the fragile patients.
I have a dear friend (former coworker of my wife at a retirement facility) She is in lock down as three people there have tested positive for Covid-19. One was a staff person who worked in the skilled care wing among the most fragile. Another was a staff member who worked with more mobile and healthier residents. The third was a very fragile patient in the skilled care center.
Now as to testing everyone. That is the current priority, but up until very recently they haven't had the test kits to do the testing.
It will get worse in terms of many more deaths before it gets better, but I am still not seeing exponential growth in the number of deaths. In fact all the charts I have seen world wide show pretty linear death rates, not exponentially growing deaths. Cases are growing exponentially, or at least with more testing the number of known cases is rising rapidly. But there seems to be a disconnect between “cases” and deaths.
Again, the disease is very hard on the very fragile. In Italy an analysis of the deaths indicates that the vast majority seem to have two and more likely three serious underlying medical condition. Some of them include: high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, obesity, breathing disorders.
A few years ago, I attended a seminar on “how to prepare for retirement and how to get your life in order.” Besides the wills, trusts, powers of attorney, etc, I was told to find a geriatric doctor so that they could do a baseline on me. I tried to get an appointment with about ten geriatric doctors. At the time I was recovering from a horrible accident that required 3 surgeries on my leg. I was using a walker, then crutches, then cane. None of the geriatric doctors would see me. In frustration I had a long discussion with one of the schedulers. She told me that I wasn't fragile enough to be seen by the doctors. I got it and said to be seen you then need to be really fragile like on death's doorstep. Yes.
When some, not all, of the people dying of Covid-19 die, except for the symptoms, it is not too much of a surprise to their relatives or staff who thought that most didn't have that much longer to live. Others, just quickly get very very sick and die.
Thanks my source has been from the Seattle Times which summarizes cases and deaths by County each day based on a certain GMT, so “day” of the week gets a bid odd.
I have plotted that curve and it sure does not look logarithmic to me. I have been updating the plot each day and still no sign of exponential grown.
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