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To: jrestrepo

Doing an ordinary least squares fitting of the last 13 days of WA case data from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/washington/ to a logistic progression, I also find it’s at or near the inflection point. The raw data best fits a final total case count of 4300; adding some Poisson noise to the data pushes that figure up to the 4400-4600 range.


15 posted on 03/23/2020 4:22:56 PM PDT by NobleFree ("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
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To: DoodleBob

FYI ping


16 posted on 03/23/2020 4:33:16 PM PDT by NobleFree ("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
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To: NobleFree

You had me at “least squares”! :-)

Many people do not understand technical jargon, but I like it.


18 posted on 03/23/2020 6:08:51 PM PDT by jrestrepo (See you all in Galt's gulch)
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To: NobleFree

My assumption is that the logarithmic curve you looked at for State of WA data and feel we have reached an inflection point is for “positive cases?”

Is that correct?


21 posted on 03/24/2020 1:23:09 AM PDT by Robert357
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