Posted on 03/21/2020 8:21:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Since I published several days ago, COVD19 grips the world even more. Cases spiral upward, and fatalities accrue and gain momentum. Besides closure of all athletic events, schools, and theaters, the trauma metastasizes to restaurants and many major retailers and small businesses, now idling a giant swath of our economy. My views on this virus have not changed; in fact, only grown in intensity. Heterodox thoughts that Coronavirus remains only a flu with meager rates of mortality garnered a censure from one of the giant temples of leftist propaganda, Facebook. They removed my previous Coronavirus article as “against our community standards.” Against any empirical data to the contrary, the left must adhere to religion of apocalypse. COVD19 is a highly contagious virus, but nearly everyone in America, including right-leaning FOX news, now misleadingly paints a picture of Ebola-like danger, inferring potential millions of Americans dying.
The last time the world faced a Pandemic without a vaccine was the infamous Spanish flu epidemic beginning in January 1918, lasting nearly three full years to December 1920. Twenty to fifty million people died, and it infected an estimated 500 million or over a quarter of the planet’s population. Come to 2020, and the U.K.’s Imperial College of Medicine’s twenty-first-century modeling techniques reinforces craziness with a base case 2.2 million U.S. citizens dead and an astronomical 81 percent infection rate among the population. That’s 267 of 330 million total U.S. inhabitants. Their charts show death rates in the U.S. peaking in late June at about 50,000 per day. Worse outcomes are possible depending on how overwhelmed the hospitals become. Somehow these bleak numbers even assume some measures of self-quarantine and social distancing.
If these statistics contain grains of truth, if COVD19 is so remarkably transmittable, I raise the question of the validity of shuttering the economy for the marginal benefit of sparing 19 percent of the population from this virus. Conduct a risk-reward analysis and compare whether millions of lost jobs, countless business failures, and one trillion in government aid and stimulus against uncertain benefits of current policy. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s soberly says possible twenty percent unemployment rivaling the Great Depression.
What began as a middling medical crisis amid an environment of soaring consumer confidence and fifty-year lows in unemployment, rapidly morphs into potential economic cataclysm, a small pimple becoming a tumor, now a potential existential crisis nastier than 2008. Recession or worse now appears unavoidable. An entirely manmade disaster engendered by constantly reinforced media panic. Parsing the numbers with a sober vision causes me to question orthodox dogma.
Official reported infection and death rates are steepening in both America and Europe. In four days, the U.S. has seen a spike to 13,783 cases (almost a 300 percent jump) with 174 deaths or only 42 per million people, and 1.6 percent mortality. Although unfortunate, quite minuscule when mirrored next to an average of over 250,000 daily seasonal flu cases and the associated average 213 daily deaths. (based on the midpoint of CDC estimates and a five-month flu season. 38.5mm/150 days=256,666 per day 32,000 deaths/150 days=213d/per day)
Ohio, which noted 26 official cases several days ago, has rocketed up to 116 recorded illnesses, on 11.65 million inhabitants, or 10 cases per million. Over six days ago, Ohio’s health officials confidently announced there were “at least” 100,000 undiagnosed Coronavirus cases and doubling every six days. Therefore we now have more than 200,000 disease-ridden Ohio citizens running amuck. Yet the state shows not one single death for the press to trumpet. Governor Mike DeWine now, mercifully, in a bold stroke, ordered the closure of tattoo parlors, which should radically slow disease progression. In this same article comes an out of thin air statement, “It’s estimated that 2.2 million Americans would have died if nothing was done about the virus.” No source, no explanation, just uncorroborated hyperbole; irresponsible doesn’t begin to describe it.
If there does exist over 200,000 Ohio infections, then that calculates to over 5.6 million total U.S. (330 /11.65mm=28.33 x 200,000=5.66mm), and remember Ohio announces an official infection rate only 10per million inhabitants yet the national average has climbed to 42 per million. A more correct extrapolation would yield a prediction over four times the 5.6 million.
The hinge of my thesis hangs on the real number of coronavirus infections in America being exponentially higher than officially reported data. All across our country, municipal governments expect local infection rates of 50, 60, or 70 percent. Houston hospitals brace for 50 percent of a metro population of 7.5 million. Perspective: The entire state of Texas, out of 29.5 million (7.6 per million), reports 229 cases with three dead or a rate of a little more than one-tenth of one percent. If medical experts are even close in their prognostications, current cases must be exponentially higher.
Assuming the pandemic lasts eight months and using CDC estimates of 214 million cases or 65 percent of the population implies an average of 900,000 cases a day. Using the Imperial College 81 percent American infection estimates means over 1.1 million cases a day. Even as the infection curve drastically steepens, official daily new U.S. contaminations are 3 to 4,000. Imagine the panic every flu season if every morning, a chart posted the hundreds of thousands of new infections. Then imagine how many flu cases would occur without a vaccine.
Obvious to me, because of limited testing capabilities, and that so many stricken with COVD19 experience a mild or even asymptomatic response, hundreds of thousands or millions of infections remain unreported. Many also recover within a few days. If even only a million cases exist, and America has 176 deaths, that translates to current mortality of fewer than two one-hundredths of one percent or about a fifth the generally accepted rate of one-tenth of a percent for the seasonal flu. Statistics also lean heavily to the elderly and those in some way immunocompromised at the highest risk. Among the 3,405 Italian deaths, not one has been under 30.
Though Coronavirus indisputably has proven extremely contagious, why suffocate an entire economy with a very high probability of infinitesimal rates of mortality? According to the CDC, seasonal flu annually kills 650,000. As I publish, the worldwide meter will eclipse the 10,000 threshold.
The Deep State recently published a one hundred page report sure to conjure more fear and panic, anticipating an eighteen-month pandemic, complete with warnings of massive supply shortages and “stress” to the nation’s medical facilities. Why should America experience a prolonged journey before conquering Coronavirus? Over the past four days, China’s active cases have decreased from around 10,000 to a current level of 7,263. New cases have been zero in two of the last five days. South Korea also shows active infections decreasing over the past eight days. The time it took both of these countries to control this virus and “flatten the curve,” has been less than ten weeks. Though the veracity of China must be questioned, all Apple stores and 90 percent of Starbucks have reopened, including some in virus epicenter Wuhan. Those two companies exemplify integrity, and would not endanger workers. Traffic levels, pollution, coal usage all show increase. China reopens for business, making it very unlikely America will have future supply chain disruptions.
In a then sign of leadership, in the depths of the 1932 depression, FDR memorably and loudly proclaimed: “We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.” Our President preaches calm, and leftist media lambasts him as a lackadaisical disconnected leader. Early in this crisis on January 31, he shuttered American borders with China and got decried as a racist, and Joe Biden condescendingly labeled the move “hysterical xenophobia.” Now comes a media-induced frenzy threatens to topple our economy. I believe liberals much prefer depression and the unimaginable economic pain and concurrent social displacement to four more years of Donald Trump.
Conclusions:
COVD19 infections are far more widespread than official statistics report
As a result of perhaps millions of unreported cases with mild or asymptomatic progression, the fatality rates are much lower than propagated.
The low fatality rate suggests extreme projections of millions of Americans dying overblown, causing needless fear and panic. So far, those under 30 have a greater likelihood of dying via a bolt of lightning.
America should selectively reopen the economy, starting with restaurants and bars and social clubs, as well as the major retailing chains.
Coronavirus appears at least four times as contagious as seasonal flu. The elderly and infirm are most at risk and should continue to self-isolate, and young people must be extra vigilant in their proximity.
Data suggests younger people with no complications have low mortality risk. Everyone must look at the statistics, and so far, at least, note that the infection rate for the American seasonal flu stands at about 12,000 per million versus Coronavirus infections of 42 per million.
Keep perspective, and don’t panic. No one is getting out of here alive. Ultimately, something is going to get every one of us.
If you haven’t figured out that China and the “American” Media are the same, you still haven’t opened your eyes.
“South Koreans speak ONE language, are predominantly single race people, and obey rules much more than freewheeling Americans. They do not have ACLU or democrat party or liberal media as well. Those are huge advantages when a pandemic strikes.”
They also only have 50 million people in a very small area . Lot easier to contain and test than 330 million +
Not to mention the panic is what is creating the medical burden, everyone running to the hospital with a cough or sneeze. So then the media can report about the overburdened health care system. A vicious cycle created by the media and supported by the masses of lemmings including many right here
South Korea probably doesn’t have a media run by the chinese that wants their country to fail so they can take over.
If you notice, the “American” media can’t even behave for this and called the President a racists. This is a China media trying to keep everyone on panic mode so our economy will be totally destroyed and the Chinese can install whomever they want as President
Russia Russia Russia was a Chinese plot to take out the American President
Their single-minded purpose is to serve the Democrat Party and get Democrats elected.
The welfare of the American People and the USA is not even a consideration to those people.
The Democrats and the Democrat Party consider the USA an evil, racist, nazi nation that must be destroyed. The reason they hate President Trump so rabidly is because he has thwarted their plans to do exactly that.
That as well. No one should compare apples with oranges.
Russia,Russia,.Russia, Ukraine,Ukraine,Ukraine, Impeachment,Impeachment,Impeachment, Plague,Plague,Plauge ......is there a pattern here with the Democrat Party and its propaganda arm of the MSM? I believe they think the have finally got Trump now by destroying the economy he helped create. The longer they can stretch this manufactured crisis out the more and more unlikely a swift recovery will occur in time.
Wrong. Taiwan just avoided having to be Draconian by shutting down early.
Yes freaked out buyers are part of the problem but the real problem is most store only receive about half the deliveries they normally get.
What better way to get the customer to the story every day to see if shelves are re stocked,Know a driver for Von’s and he said his trailer isn’t maxed out now.
The media’s job is to give us facts, not pacifications, and not sensationalism. Though they are given to sensationalism because it sells.
I’m not watching the MSM, except to the extent it gets posted here. But I’ve not seen a lot of sensationalism.
Here at FR, I’ve seen people with facts, and people trying to placate others with false facts. The latter group accuses the first group of fear mongering. But I’ve not seen a lot of fear mongering.
South Korea has 172 cases per million people.
The USS has 67.
Well,the one aspect of MAGA the left was going to have a hard time to defeat was the historically excellent economy. The economy is now dead and an incredible gift to the left. The left dreamed of this and they must be ecstatic. It will be very hard for any President to recover from this (to be re-elected) as the country very well may never recover fully (as founded). The media is pushing the crisis.
I’m watching Washington, the first locale in the US to blow up.
Total recoveries in USA: 147
Recoveries in Washington alone: 124
The daily case data is confusing because of when and how states report, but it looked like Washington had a drop in new cases yesterday. Will be watching that with interest going forward.
Our “elite” in NM are already talking about holding the next election by mail.
Can’t think of a more sure way to steal an election and thwart the will of the people - of course it’s for our protection. (hit W)
https://www.abqjournal.com/1434887/new-mexico-considers-holding-mail-elections.html
You in NM might also be aware that there hasn’t been a coal train come through in days. I live in Larkspur, Colorado. We’re the “hump” trains have to go through to get out of the mountains and into the flatlands of NM and Texas.
Coal trains come through a dozen or more a day to feed our southern States and Mexico. There hasn’t been a train in days, perhaps since Tuesday. This could cause electricity shortages as power plants run short of coal. We did have a blizzard yesterday and trains tend not to run at that time, but we got minimal snow and the tracks are clear, but the trains stopped running days before the blizzard.
So explain to me why some buyers are filling their carts to the brim with TP? What is their fear? We will run out of trees to make paper? Covid-19 lockdown will last 6+ months?
I am afraid you may be right. President Biden will be held in awe by the media for having cured covid-19 and restored the country back to health.
South Korea has close to universal testing.
Reminds me of some of the 24 hour hurricane coverage we get. There’s a reporter standing in every puddle saying “Well, Jim, the winds weren’t as bad as we expected, but the storm surge might still kill us all”....updates every fricken 15 minutes.
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