Posted on 03/17/2020 3:44:48 PM PDT by Hojczyk
A study released on Monday from the journal Science shows that a shocking 86 percent of people in public settings could have “stealth” cases of the coronavirus, showing no symptoms but infecting others.
“It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” study co-author Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University Mailman School said, according to GeekWire.
The New York Post reported on the study:
Using computer modeling, researchers tracked infections before and after the Chinese city of Wuhan’s travel ban.
The findings indicated that these undocumented infections with no or mild symptoms — known as “stealth” cases — were behind two-thirds of the reported patients.
“The majority of these infections are mild, with few symptoms at all,” Shaman said, the Mercury News reported. “People may not recognize it. Or they think they have a cold.”
“It will continue to present a major challenge to the containment of this outbreak going forward,” Shaman said, and added that it underscores the importance of restrictions on movement to try to slow the spread of the virus.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
“could” and “computer modelling” Pure speculation.
“If you’re undetected you could be infected!”
“If the glove don’t fit, you must acquit!” ;)
and the same thing can be said of other colds and flus.
Uhhh.. how do they know this if it’s undetected?
So not all that sick, right?
Uninjected, unsuspected and undetected.
So using the https://ncov2019.live/data dashboard data, as of 3.17.2020, we have 5,598 cases in the U.S. and 98 deaths. If 86% are undetected, that means there are 39,986 infections (5,598/(1-0.86). 39,986/98 deaths equals a mortality rate of 0.25%. This is higher than the flu at 0.1%, but a far cry from what the public health officials are claiming and insufficient reason to quarantine the nation and ruin the lives of small business owners and their employees.
No. It’s 72.457905531%
If only 14 percent get sick why are closing down the country..????
The death rate looks like it is a lot lower if 86% are not sick
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.
In addition to the low rate of disease incidence (83% didn’t get it), the curious part of Figure 2 for me is that there’s not a whole lot of difference between young and old passengers in terms of how many didn’t get coronavirus. For example, sixty to sixty-nine-year-old passengers stayed healthier than teenagers. And three-quarters of the oldest group, those over eighty, didn’t get the virus. Go figure. Buncha virus resistant old geezers, I guess …
Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all? Here’s the breakdown by age:
86% of people will believe made up statistics...
So, in the US, with about 6000 confirmed cases, that would mean about 43,000 are actually infected. And with about 100 deaths, that would mean a ratio of deaths/infected of about 0.23%. That looks only somewhat worse than seasonal flu statistics, but maybe it’s too soon to tell.
Sounds about right.
Abraham Lincoln
If it’s undetected, how would they know?
We don’t know yet how many of the current 5598 will die. (BTW worldometers.info says that the US has 6437 cases and this number increased by 1774 since yesterday.)
More or less true. But also meaningless. The growth of the infected population is what we measure. The deaths are what we measure.
The possibility that many of these infections or even deaths is the result of these uncounted infectees doesn't really matter. It is what it is. Follow the numbers. They will tell the tale and forecast the near term future with quite good accuracy.
Near Term: A week or two.
My guess is that there are more than 43,000 infected people where we live in East King County, Washington alone. Ten thousand Chinese people who went home for the holiday returned to Washington through Vancouver BC after the “travel ban”. Then they spread it around where they worked played and went to school. When it hit a vulnerable population at the Life Care Center in Kirkland it caused dramatic enough problems that it was eventually detected.
Other than vulnerable old and sick people this thing is no more unpleasant than the flu and a lot of people ignore their symptoms. I am thinking that the death/infection rate is no worse than most flu viruses. Two years ago we lost around 70,000 people to the flu. This is unlikely to even come close to that. This is the biggest fraud in the country's history.
Study says: I made up some numbers that sound really cool.
FYI, I am 99% certain that myself, my family, and some co-workers had the China virus back in early February and did not know it. We all had the symptoms, which are very unusual. Our coughs were really dry. We all had shortness of breath. Very weird. I could run on the treadmill for 3 miles and have no effects, but if I quickly walked up a flight of stairs I had to catch my breath to even have a conversation. We were all able to work, but felt like sh**. 2 of us went to the doctor and the flu tests were negative. We were told it was “probably” some type of bronchitis. Additionally, the local school kids and teachers in my central Maryland county were getting the same thing in January/February. That’s why I think this entire melodrama is complete b.s. This virus had already spread weeks ago, but yet nobody was dropping dead like in Italy or China.
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