Stocks To Bet On: 12 Reasons Gilead With Remdesivir Is My Best COVID-19 Bet

Seeking Alpha ^ | 03/17/2020 | Bram De Haas

[SeekAndFind]

Summary

COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe and the U.S.

The first of six Remdesivir trials could finish as soon as April.

Gilead's Remdesivir is very promising according to experts and scuttlebut.

This article lists the primary 12 reasons I think Remdesivir remains frontrunner to combat COVID-19.

One subscriber to The Special Situation Report asked about how much upside I think there is for Gilead (GILD) if Remdesivir is successful. In good news, Wells Fargo now thinks Remdesivir can add $20 to the stock over time.

My approach so far has been that this is not the question I want to try and quantify. I'm operating from the premise that we know Gilead was worth about $60-$65 before anyone was thinking about Remdesivir.

Remdesivir is going to add value if: 1) It's actually effective which has not yet been conclusively determined, 2) if it sells for a fair price 3) there's a sizeable number of patients to treat.

In my opinion, 2 and 3 are likely to work themselves out. Both are worth watching, but if you work with ranges in both inputs you'll get just modeling results that are light years apart because you are dealing with a "market" that's growing in exponential fashion.

The key way to make money by speculating on COVID-19 treatment is to do the scuttlebutt and figure out how likely it is that a treatment is effective before the official trial results are out. I'm doing that work on remdesivir and I am betting that remdesivir is effective.

Here's why: (Updated list from 17 reasons Why I'm confident Remdesivir will work against COVID-19):

[CharlesWayneCT]

I wasn’t sure how to read that at first. A treatment that took 22 days would be bad. But I guess it said he was in hospital for 22 days, and THEN they treated him, and he got better. Then the question is, how many days after treatment, and do they know he wasn’t at the end of the run of treatment anyway?

[CharlesWayneCT]

In one small study i read, it looked like the regeneran treatment was much more effective than Remdesiver.

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE PUBLISHES RESULTS OF EBOLA CLINICAL TRIAL CONFIRMING SUPERIORITY OF REGENERON'S REGN-EB3 TO ZMAPP IN PREVENTING EBOLA DEATHS

This was a study for ebola, but Remdesiver was part of the study, and was eliminated because it was less effective than the final two competitors.

Not sure what would make use against COVID come out differently in relative effectiveness; but maybe Giliad just has a better public relations firm.

Ebola Clinical Trial

[bjc]

Ignoramus yourself...

https://www.drugs.com/sfx/aspirin-side-effects.html

This is hardly a helpful way to conduct a discussion. Most highly effective drugs are likely to trigger adverse reactions among some recipients.

For Chloroquine, the drug.com site says “Incidence not known”. It says the same for Aspirin, which raises questions in my mind about the site.

[catnipman]

once again, YOU said “and has no adverse effects”

that’s patently false,so either you’re ignorant or a liar ...

here’s the truth of the matter about chloroquine, which is far, far from “and has no adverse effects”:

https://www.everydayhealth.com/drugs/chloroquine

Chloroquine Warnings

Before taking chloroquine, tell your doctor if you have, or have ever had:

Liver disease
Hearing problems
Psoriasis
Eye or vision problems
Weakness in your knees and ankles
G6PD deficiency (a genetic disorder)
Porphyria (a blood disorder)
Seizures
Stomach or intestinal problems
Kidney disease
Allergies to medicines

Also, let your doctor know if you drink large amounts of alcohol before starting on this medicine.

Your doctor will probably want to order frequent tests to check your body’s response to chloroquine. Keep all appointments with your doctor and laboratory.

Let your healthcare provider know if your symptoms either don’t improve or worsen while taking this medicine.

Chloroquine may make your skin more sensitive to the sun. Avoid unnecessary sun exposure and tanning booths and wear sunscreen and protective clothing when outdoors.

Don’t receive any vaccination (especially a rabies vaccine) while using chloroquine without first discussing it with your doctor.
Pregnancy and Chloroquine

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), chloroquine is considered safe to use during pregnancy.

Tell your doctor if you’re pregnant or might become pregnant while taking chloroquine. You’ll have to discuss the risks and benefits of using this medicine during pregnancy.

Chloroquine passes into breast milk and may harm a breastfeeding baby. Don’t breastfeed while taking this drug without first talking to your healthcare provider.
Chloroquine Side Effects
Common Side Effects of Chloroquine

Tell your doctor if any of the following side effects become severe or don’t go away:

Loss of appetite
Mild dizziness
Mild diarrhea
Clumsiness
Mild headache
Nausea or stomach cramps

Serious Side Effects of Chloroquine

Tell your doctor right away if you experience any of the following severe side effects:

Unusual behavior or mood changes
Severe diarrhea
Vision problems or blurred vision
Trouble reading words or seeing parts of objects
Sensitivity to sunlight
Hearing loss
Ringing in the ears
Change in skin color
Change in color of the inside of your mouth
Fever or sore throat
Hair loss
Weight loss
Unusual weakness
Drowsiness
Seizures
Difficulty speaking
Drooling
Loss of balance
Uncontrolled movements
Unusual bleeding or bruising
Dark-colored urine
Yellowing of the skin or eyes
Vomiting
Irregular heartbeat
Signs of a severe allergic reaction, which may include hives, rash, itching, difficulty breathing, tightness in the chest, or swelling of the face, mouth, lips, or tongue

Back to Top
Chloroquine Interactions

Tell your doctor about all prescription, nonprescription, illegal, recreational, herbal, nutritional, or dietary drugs you’re taking, especially:

Antacids, such as Tagamet (cimetidine) and others
Arsenic trioxide
Rheumatrex, Trexall (methotrexate)
Tylenol (acetaminophen)
Iron products
Kaolin
Niacin
Rifadin or Rimactane (rifampin)
Nydrazid (isoniazid)
Medication for irregular heartbeat
Medication for depression or anxiety
Vitamins and herbal products

Chloroquine and Other Interactions

Chloroquine may cause dizziness.

Don’t drive, operate machinery, or perform other tasks that require alertness until you know how this medicine affects you.
Chloroquine and Alcohol

Alcohol may worsen certain side effects of chloroquine.

Talk to your doctor about this potential interaction.