Posted on 03/17/2020 7:00:52 AM PDT by fireman15
OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.
So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.
As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.
And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...
Keep us posted over the next few weeks. I am serious about encouraging people to volunteer. If you really believe you have no risk go help transport people from the ER to CT scan. If it ain’t a hoax they are going to need a lot of folks who don’t need any training. If it’s a hoax you get to meet some nice people.
fireman15 wrote: “As the testing around here (Eastern King County Washington, coronavirus central) really takes off, they are going to find that it was passed around for weeks before anyone realized something was up.”
I was on a cruise in mid-September out of Vancouver but passed through SETAC. About four days into the cruise, I contracted a respiratory illness with symptoms similar to a mild flu. I can’t help but wonder if this was the Wuhan virus considering the popularity of China in Vancouver.
Why? Because the press has gaslighted people into thinking this is the deadliest bug ever and will kill everyone, but it is no stronger than the flu.
China used the bug to get rid of the anti-Communist protesters in China.
The liberal press is using the bug to hurt our economy as that is what Trump has been running on.
My wife and I have been frequent volunteers at the Life Care Center in Kirkland for years. It was a fine facility, but there are reasons why this place was vulnerable and the first disaster related to the Coronavirus in this country. I was one of the first on this forum to say that it was something serious and got ample criticism. Since that time however the hype has snowballed out of control and it has become one of the greatest overreactions ever perpetrated on the world at any time. If you added up the number of people who fell down in their tubs, passed out on the toilet, or choked on their toothpaste, the worldwide casualty rate in the same time period would be greater.
Could it be that the media’s Trump derangement has somehow infected their reporting ?
In the last hundred years Americans have changed significantly in how much loss of life they will tolerate. I think one benchmark is 58,000, the number of deaths in Vietnam Nam. 10,000 to 20,000 most people will probably shrug off, unless they are in your family. Doing what we are doing will probably be successful in keeping it to those levels. Below 58,000 Trump can probably prevail in November. If the Rat media can “blame Trump for more death than Viet Nam” we probably are going to end up having that CW II we’ve been putting off.
And hubby is a scientist, working in the lab doing intake. Since healthcare isn’t how he has his doctorate (Physics), he had to take extensive training to volunteer there a few months ago. He loves it, and he has met some wonderful people!
I’ve been thinking about doing it, too, but the training would take a long time — longer than this hoax will live. We have some elderly (more elderly than I am) people on our street and when I shop I ask if they need me to pick up anything. I don’t need training for that.
I agree with you. Remember the death rate “calculated” from the hurricane that hit Puerto Rico. The casualty rate will be statically derived.
I say, if you can’t put a name on the line, the line is invalid.
I suspect it would take longer for someone to “train” you on how to find CT scan and the ER than to figure it out yourself.
It is very likely that it was. After President Trump restricted flights from China, all the Chinese who wanted to get back to the Seattle area after celebrating the New Year back home just flew into Vancouver instead. Then they drove three hours back to the East Side of King County. It was brought to our attention that as of yesterday over 10,000 Chinese Nationals did this since direct flights were restricted. They did an end run around the travel ban. There were no restrictions on travel between Canada and the USA. Vancouver BC has the largest concentration of Chinese people in Canada.
“I suspect it would take longer for someone to ‘train’ you on how to find CT scan and the ER than to figure it out yourself.”
Technically, that’s true. I’ve saved my companies many thousands of dollars by learning (by reading) equipment, processes, applications, etc., and then training co-workers. They didn’t need to hire expensive trainers.
But the hospitals, where I’d like to volunteer, have strict protocols for volunteers no matter who you are or what you’ve done. I respect that; it relieves them from possible future liability, I suppose.
If they get up to their ear lobes in blue people those protocols will go right out the window.
It's my opinion that the push for a dramatic reaction was based primarily in an effort to portray Trump as being uncaring, and ineffective. The secondary reason was then based on public health issues. Consider that Trump did react forcefully when no one was really paying attention by shutting down travel to China at the end of January, and he was criticized for it. But if the US has a relatively low death rate, and a relatively short outbreak period, every politician will claim credit. If it goes haywire, they will blame Trump.
“If they get up to their ear lobes in blue people those protocols will go right out the window.”
You’re probably right.
True in all the US. I believe that it was here since early November and many deaths were attributed to the regular flu. Many comments on how bad the regular flu season is. Could be really COVID-19.
Great post; thread. Thanks. Freeper McGee’s great threat assessment very, very early on was to watch the cruise ships.
EXCELLENT!!!!!!! Article.
The scariest part is that near HALF of all people who have it DON’T KNOW IT (NO symptoms).
Hey, I’m not sick gramma.
Well, unless you had the specific Corona Virus test, you CAN’T know since HALF of the people with it don’t know it.
Thank you for posting. It is refreshing to see data versus hysteria. I have never been less happy with the Trump administration.
Because it is not nearly as deadly and dangerous as all of the Panic mongers say it is.
I’m sure every president/prime minister/supreme leader has asked the question, “What if we don’t lock down the country—what will happen?” and they haven’t liked the answer they’ve heard. So the major nations of Europe have basically shut down, several large states and cities in the US have done the same, borders in Europe have reappeared, and the world’s economy has taken a hit.
I Cruised for 17 days in the Mediterranean. My roommate picked up a bad cough/fly symptoms about a week in. I was fine. She coughed for weeks when we returned. Think she had it.
Also believe it’s been share around my family. One son drove himself to Urgent Care in early January, where he passed out. They ran tests for Flu A, Fly B, Mono, strep... all negative. He believes he had IT
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